Ready for next bull run? Must go above 44k$ to confirm it
The Fib Channel uses 3 points: Low, Second Low and a High that's in between.
Here, I've chosen the 2013 local low, 2015 capitulation low and the 2014 Blow off top at ~ 1150$.
Note how the top and bottom of the channels are respected. Coincidence?
Taking a look at the Fibonacci channel levels we can see that the previous top at ~ 19k$ was well respected. Almost same for the bottom at 5500$, little more down because of covid-19 march 2020 crash.
At the previous Bitcoin halving cycle we can see that the highest volume node was at 3850$. We went under it for ~ 3 months. After moving back above that support, a rally occurred till 14k$ and got rejected at fib 0.5 level. What led us to a retest of that support by March 20. After that bounce we had a bull run to Fib 0.618 at ~ 64k$ as our first rejection (duration 365 days).
In the current halving cycle, the highest volume node is at ~ 33k$. We went under it for ~ 3 months (May to July 2021). After moving back above that support, a rally occurred till the Fib 0.5 level at 69k$ and got rejected. Finally we retested the support at 33k$ and seems to be ready to reach at least Fib 0.618. Taking a year as a duration reference for this next bull run, we can arrive at a potential price ~ 225k$ by mid January 2023.
Whale wallets realised price as a macro support is at ~ 34k$ which is also the minimum price for BTC mining profitability.
Another important point which can drive this new bull run is the approval of Grayscale ETF expected to be reviewed by market regulator by Feb. 6 and NYDIG ETF by March 16.
I have seen recently a decorrelation of Bitcoin price from S&P500 index which is a good sign. A capital flow is also occurring, money from stocks are moving to crypto market.
Factors that can cancel that bull run:
* rejection at 44k$ resistance as a previous Lower High
* rejection of Grayscale ETF
* broking the 33k-34k$ support
* aggressive ending of QE (Quantitative Easing)
* black swan (war, big crash, ...)
Here, I've chosen the 2013 local low, 2015 capitulation low and the 2014 Blow off top at ~ 1150$.
Note how the top and bottom of the channels are respected. Coincidence?
Taking a look at the Fibonacci channel levels we can see that the previous top at ~ 19k$ was well respected. Almost same for the bottom at 5500$, little more down because of covid-19 march 2020 crash.
At the previous Bitcoin halving cycle we can see that the highest volume node was at 3850$. We went under it for ~ 3 months. After moving back above that support, a rally occurred till 14k$ and got rejected at fib 0.5 level. What led us to a retest of that support by March 20. After that bounce we had a bull run to Fib 0.618 at ~ 64k$ as our first rejection (duration 365 days).
In the current halving cycle, the highest volume node is at ~ 33k$. We went under it for ~ 3 months (May to July 2021). After moving back above that support, a rally occurred till the Fib 0.5 level at 69k$ and got rejected. Finally we retested the support at 33k$ and seems to be ready to reach at least Fib 0.618. Taking a year as a duration reference for this next bull run, we can arrive at a potential price ~ 225k$ by mid January 2023.
Whale wallets realised price as a macro support is at ~ 34k$ which is also the minimum price for BTC mining profitability.
Another important point which can drive this new bull run is the approval of Grayscale ETF expected to be reviewed by market regulator by Feb. 6 and NYDIG ETF by March 16.
I have seen recently a decorrelation of Bitcoin price from S&P500 index which is a good sign. A capital flow is also occurring, money from stocks are moving to crypto market.
Factors that can cancel that bull run:
* rejection at 44k$ resistance as a previous Lower High
* rejection of Grayscale ETF
* broking the 33k-34k$ support
* aggressive ending of QE (Quantitative Easing)
* black swan (war, big crash, ...)
