This is my overview of what might come next for Bitcoin based on available historical market data.
First, as the halving nature of Bitcoin plays a fundamental role in the change of its valuation, I pinpointed Halving Days (in yellow vertical line) and Bitcoin's price for those days as a reference.
Secondly, I identified All Time Highs that followed the last halvings in order to see by how many %s the Halving Day Bitcoin price increased to its ATH before the next halving date took place.
Additionally, the Lowest Price after ATH, as well as calculation of how many %s of its value Bitcoin lost at most after the last ATH were also needed to predict the next Lowest Price Point Bitcoin might reach after hitting its new ATH of $64,000.
Lastly, top red %s show the difference between two consecutive ATH, as the magnitude of each next ATH diminishes to certain extent.
ANALYSIS:
The historical data expressed in % change put hidden patterns in clear spectrum. So, Bitcoin appreciated by 9166% following its 2012 halving, reaching $1,100 from $12 on the day of halving.
However, the next ATH of $19,000 was only roughly 2,936% increase from the last halving day price of $647. That is -68% decrease in appreciation rate from 2013 rally, which put Bitcoin price at $1,100. We see similar trend in decrease of appreciation rate in our latest Bitcoin rally this year when it jumped to $64,000 from $8,570 on the day of halving, thus making around 746% increase in price. That is -75% decrease in appreciation rate from 2017 rally.
The rate of decrease in appreciation between halvings of 2012 and 2016 constituted -68% and -75% respectively, with an average of -71.5%. If 746% appreciation to the latest ATH of $64,000 decreases by 71.5% by the next ATH, it puts the next rate of appreciation at 212.61% for the current ATH of $64,000, i.e. around $200,000 for the ATH that will follow 2024 halving.
By contrast, if we want to know the lowest price point Bitcoin will reach following this year's ATH, we should look by how much Bitcoin dropped from its previous two ATHs in 2013 and 2017 respectively. After 2013 rally when Bitcoin topped at $1100, the following months saw its price sunk down to $154, thus losing 86% of its latest ATH value. Similarly, 2017 rally when Bitcoin reached $19,000 was followed by a decrease of 83% in value, down to $3,200, averaging at 84.5% decrease in value in both rallies.
With such a rate, the next lowest price point that will follow current ATH of $64,000 can be calculated as $10,000.
To sum up. If the historical data is of any indication, then the price of Bitcoin should follow its historical precedent and plunge in value from $64,000 down to $10,000 before the next halving, followed by a rally which will take Bitcoin's value to $200,000.
First, as the halving nature of Bitcoin plays a fundamental role in the change of its valuation, I pinpointed Halving Days (in yellow vertical line) and Bitcoin's price for those days as a reference.
Secondly, I identified All Time Highs that followed the last halvings in order to see by how many %s the Halving Day Bitcoin price increased to its ATH before the next halving date took place.
Additionally, the Lowest Price after ATH, as well as calculation of how many %s of its value Bitcoin lost at most after the last ATH were also needed to predict the next Lowest Price Point Bitcoin might reach after hitting its new ATH of $64,000.
Lastly, top red %s show the difference between two consecutive ATH, as the magnitude of each next ATH diminishes to certain extent.
ANALYSIS:
The historical data expressed in % change put hidden patterns in clear spectrum. So, Bitcoin appreciated by 9166% following its 2012 halving, reaching $1,100 from $12 on the day of halving.
However, the next ATH of $19,000 was only roughly 2,936% increase from the last halving day price of $647. That is -68% decrease in appreciation rate from 2013 rally, which put Bitcoin price at $1,100. We see similar trend in decrease of appreciation rate in our latest Bitcoin rally this year when it jumped to $64,000 from $8,570 on the day of halving, thus making around 746% increase in price. That is -75% decrease in appreciation rate from 2017 rally.
The rate of decrease in appreciation between halvings of 2012 and 2016 constituted -68% and -75% respectively, with an average of -71.5%. If 746% appreciation to the latest ATH of $64,000 decreases by 71.5% by the next ATH, it puts the next rate of appreciation at 212.61% for the current ATH of $64,000, i.e. around $200,000 for the ATH that will follow 2024 halving.
By contrast, if we want to know the lowest price point Bitcoin will reach following this year's ATH, we should look by how much Bitcoin dropped from its previous two ATHs in 2013 and 2017 respectively. After 2013 rally when Bitcoin topped at $1100, the following months saw its price sunk down to $154, thus losing 86% of its latest ATH value. Similarly, 2017 rally when Bitcoin reached $19,000 was followed by a decrease of 83% in value, down to $3,200, averaging at 84.5% decrease in value in both rallies.
With such a rate, the next lowest price point that will follow current ATH of $64,000 can be calculated as $10,000.
To sum up. If the historical data is of any indication, then the price of Bitcoin should follow its historical precedent and plunge in value from $64,000 down to $10,000 before the next halving, followed by a rally which will take Bitcoin's value to $200,000.