Hi guys. it is almost weekend! So, BTC made another low at 64 zone, and came back down at 62 zone, now going back up. ok, so it looks exactly like a good bull flag, until now!
let me just make this quick and simple.
so BTC tends to take a long time before it breakout upwards, or downwards. it is quite boring, and people think it is not powerful enough. however, this bull flag, as I see, the candle patterns are very stable, without choppy peaky candles that indicate deadly drop. it is making lower highs, keeping the low at 62. most of the times, it takes about two or three days, and 6640 was made a day ago. i think, there is a chance, that btc can break upwards to 65 or 66 in a day from now. so, i do not recommend large portion, because btc is still in a major downtrend, but, you can try to buy some amount at 62zone, when it comes down in the following hours. i think, in 7~8, or 12 hours it should come back down again to 62. for this trade stoploss should be 6150, i think if it goes below that things look gloomy. it might just shoot up now, if does, this idea is invalidated!
if the flag is broken it should go to 6080, 5980, or 6k, or even below, which i think invalidates the hopes of a bull run and makes things worse. some TA's say that btc would start the run 6k, 6100, it will go back down....NO NO NO. i do not think so. for this flag 62 zone is the last resort to buy, under that it ruins everything. if this breaks down here, I'm not sure where it would really try to make a run, most likely double bottom but it would take more days and lost confidence. if dip lower, we cut loss at that point and we need to buy lower, not just holding it for a hope to comeback! today, btc would climb to make a lower high around 6380~6420, comes down, goes little bit up, sideways, and come back to 62 zone, and hopefully, make a run upwards.
although there is a possibility that btc will only make a lower high around 66 or 65.7~8, which i think, isn't good for this flag, and this inverse h&s, would drag things down. btc needs to make higher than 6640 and stabilize it, at least close in 1hr, 4hr frames over 65! or it will come down. so even if it goes up DO NOT TRUST BTC and just take profit when you can, and look for other chances. so sell point can be 65.5/66/67 at highest. of course, btc might just break down too. bull flags do get invalidated, and if so, this post too!!
today, i don't recommend opening shorts, risk rewards is low. if it makes a high like at 67, you can open some though. putting some buy orders at 6300/6280/6250/6230 would do for this day and see.
let me just make this quick and simple.
so BTC tends to take a long time before it breakout upwards, or downwards. it is quite boring, and people think it is not powerful enough. however, this bull flag, as I see, the candle patterns are very stable, without choppy peaky candles that indicate deadly drop. it is making lower highs, keeping the low at 62. most of the times, it takes about two or three days, and 6640 was made a day ago. i think, there is a chance, that btc can break upwards to 65 or 66 in a day from now. so, i do not recommend large portion, because btc is still in a major downtrend, but, you can try to buy some amount at 62zone, when it comes down in the following hours. i think, in 7~8, or 12 hours it should come back down again to 62. for this trade stoploss should be 6150, i think if it goes below that things look gloomy. it might just shoot up now, if does, this idea is invalidated!
if the flag is broken it should go to 6080, 5980, or 6k, or even below, which i think invalidates the hopes of a bull run and makes things worse. some TA's say that btc would start the run 6k, 6100, it will go back down....NO NO NO. i do not think so. for this flag 62 zone is the last resort to buy, under that it ruins everything. if this breaks down here, I'm not sure where it would really try to make a run, most likely double bottom but it would take more days and lost confidence. if dip lower, we cut loss at that point and we need to buy lower, not just holding it for a hope to comeback! today, btc would climb to make a lower high around 6380~6420, comes down, goes little bit up, sideways, and come back to 62 zone, and hopefully, make a run upwards.
although there is a possibility that btc will only make a lower high around 66 or 65.7~8, which i think, isn't good for this flag, and this inverse h&s, would drag things down. btc needs to make higher than 6640 and stabilize it, at least close in 1hr, 4hr frames over 65! or it will come down. so even if it goes up DO NOT TRUST BTC and just take profit when you can, and look for other chances. so sell point can be 65.5/66/67 at highest. of course, btc might just break down too. bull flags do get invalidated, and if so, this post too!!
today, i don't recommend opening shorts, risk rewards is low. if it makes a high like at 67, you can open some though. putting some buy orders at 6300/6280/6250/6230 would do for this day and see.
Trade active:
so guys, i bought at 6285.will add up more it it comes below my average. let's see see this, whether btc disappoints us or not.
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GUYS, BTC IS SHOWING STRENGTH! LET'S SEE IF IT GOES ABOVE 6480!! IT MIGHT MOT JUST COME BACK DOWN AGAIN THOUGH
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try to sell some of your longs at 65 zone now~~~
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ok guys. we see bearish div AGAIN, in time frames, if they do not break 6640 with great volume. see the volume decrease as price goes up? facing such a confluence zone, it needs MUCH MORE POWER NOW, OR i cannot believe these bulls anymore. shorts are so all time high, but problem is, bulls do not have much volume to win over!
Comment:
ok, still 6640 not broken and bear div on daily, 4hr. alts showing great speed, but that does not mean everyday it will go up without heavy retracement. if 6640 is broken, expect 6730, or 6740, but if not reached in the next 24 hours, sell all your long, alt positions to secure profit.
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i have enter a little amount of short position at 66 level. this is only in case, it does not go over 6640. if it goes over, i will trigger a tight stop, i will buy at 67,68, if that level is passed 73, 75.
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guys, this is the power of a bear div! price reached 6600ish, but couldn't make 6640, when rsi goes down!!! the wedge seems to break down, but not yet. if 6420~50 breaks, high chance we see 63.5. but nothing is so sure, so if you are in short, take some profit at 64 levels~~
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i mean when rsi goes up. such a easy play, when it is making a somewhat bear flag. yesterday, it looked like a good bull flag. but just in one day, it turned into an ascending triangle+bear flag!
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ok, small time frames, 1, 4hr tries to defend 64.8. sell your short positions, btc will try to make a lower high, around 65.7~66.2 i think. open short if price reaches, if price cannot go over 66.4, next target should be 63.5 and under.