In February and March we talked regularly on the YT channel about how Bitcoin's primary and secular trend lines were far too steep to be sustainable. Well, that was quickly redeemed by a deep and long-lasting price- and time-based correction. The primary and secular trend lines now merge nicely on the weekly log chart (if drawn as internal trend lines rather than external). You can see those lines on the daily chart too.
In March and April we talked about how Bitcoin would go down to $42 000-45 000 and how that would beautifully complete an ABC 4th-wave correction. This thesis, however, was nullified once the price broke below $42 000. And the reason for this is because the corrective A- and C-waves should technically be of equal or similar length, either in raw numbers or in percentages.
Now it rather seems like we're in the midst of a much bigger ABC correction - a zig-zag (5-3-5) in which we have just completed the A-wave and initiated the B-wave. Based on the diagonal primary and secular trend lines - which would act as a magnetic force should this ABC-correction play out within the 4th wave - then we can reverse engineer the B-wave target. The A-wave caused a -55% drop in itself. That means the C-wave should be of similar magnitude.
The $46 500 level perfectly aligns with that calculation, from which a -55% drop would land Bitcoin in the low 20 000s and right on the diagonal primary and secular support line. This area also perfectly coincides with the 0,5 fib and a diagonal resistance level. For as we know, fibonacci levels tend to be particularly reliable when it comes to Elliott Wave Theories.
Last week I announced that Bitcoin was in for a bullish reversal amidst the $28,600 drop. Now those technicals are coming together in strength. We might be in for new all-time highs, but there's a greater chance Bitcoin will be rejected at this very technical $46 500 level. The only thing I want you to take with you from this piece of analysis is that that very price zone ($46 500) is a danger zone and it stretches all the way up to the mid $51 000s as Bitcoin could very well feint us all by reversing at the 618 fib but for a $24 000 capitulation C-wave bottom. Anyone who trades actively may want to get out of the way in this 12,50% danger zone. The risk to reward for staying/hodling in that range is absolutely horrible.
Long Life Trading
In March and April we talked about how Bitcoin would go down to $42 000-45 000 and how that would beautifully complete an ABC 4th-wave correction. This thesis, however, was nullified once the price broke below $42 000. And the reason for this is because the corrective A- and C-waves should technically be of equal or similar length, either in raw numbers or in percentages.
Now it rather seems like we're in the midst of a much bigger ABC correction - a zig-zag (5-3-5) in which we have just completed the A-wave and initiated the B-wave. Based on the diagonal primary and secular trend lines - which would act as a magnetic force should this ABC-correction play out within the 4th wave - then we can reverse engineer the B-wave target. The A-wave caused a -55% drop in itself. That means the C-wave should be of similar magnitude.
The $46 500 level perfectly aligns with that calculation, from which a -55% drop would land Bitcoin in the low 20 000s and right on the diagonal primary and secular support line. This area also perfectly coincides with the 0,5 fib and a diagonal resistance level. For as we know, fibonacci levels tend to be particularly reliable when it comes to Elliott Wave Theories.
Last week I announced that Bitcoin was in for a bullish reversal amidst the $28,600 drop. Now those technicals are coming together in strength. We might be in for new all-time highs, but there's a greater chance Bitcoin will be rejected at this very technical $46 500 level. The only thing I want you to take with you from this piece of analysis is that that very price zone ($46 500) is a danger zone and it stretches all the way up to the mid $51 000s as Bitcoin could very well feint us all by reversing at the 618 fib but for a $24 000 capitulation C-wave bottom. Anyone who trades actively may want to get out of the way in this 12,50% danger zone. The risk to reward for staying/hodling in that range is absolutely horrible.
Long Life Trading