Nidalas

[MAP] BTC, "return to mean" or start of "despair" ?

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
We all know "the bubble chart", and of course, we need to always be ready for it. Bubbles are cycles, we can see tons of them in our very every-day life
It's just the expression of the overall frenzy or mania of the human masses. But we often wrongly assume it means the death of the underlying asset, technology, or trend. That's the very essence of "capitulation". Often only to see too late that the trend came back, and we missed the boat.


How many threw away their old 90's console games to realise they are worth hundreds or thousands now ? Vinyl ? Organic food and now Local food ? Virtual/augmented reality frenzy ? Pokemon ? Sometimes even both at the same time (Pokemon Go ?)


As good investors, and trade-hunters, must be on the look out for the signs that others simply don't want to see, potential that others don't want to look into.

So what is this "return to mean" and "despair" ? I am referencing this infamous chart :
https://www.bigtrends.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Bubble-Phases-1.png

However, remember that if you zoom out, every the biggest bubbles can look insignificant compared to the future it can hold. The very "first selloff" of the chart, once zoomed, is a kind of bubble too. Also, bubbles always recovers if the asset has value (look at Nasdaq and so on). And BTC             does (for now)


Back to BTC            

It is currently fighting. This published idea is a mean to monitor the overall trend of BTC             , and start looking for reversal patterns. We will continue to use the other bitcoin             map in parallel to grow our capital by swing trading until reversal is confirmed. We also continue scalping/daytrading for those sweet % everyday, so we can win both in bear and bull.
What is there to see on this chart ? BTC             got a strong rejection, and now, it needs to find balance again. Once it found it, we will know on which part of this chart it is, and know what to look for.

Basically, bulls will want to stay in the current rectangle (with the pink arrow) for a while, or even better, break the green resistance that the arrow points to.
Bears will want to drag btc             very fast below the 7500$, and stay under it (no rebound over 8000 within a day or two). This would challenge our investor positioning once more, as we have continuously been cutting into it, and rebuying lower at every signs of weakness since the weak 9200$ rebound

Stay frosty
Comment: There we go, another pierce above the resistance, that provoked a fear of missing out (FOMO) and a daily candle close above it sparkling further up movement

11500 and then 12900 in sight, they should be the big resistances.
Either the rise continue and we go passing 11500 will mean a rest around 12900 (and probably a retest of 11500) and lift us toward new ATH or near ATH bull trap (18 000) in mid term due to momentum, or we will retest the resistance, and crawl on it for a while until 11500 as altcoins party upward, with an unknown future, but with an upward movement biais

Bearish scenario is going below the slope resistance and closing below it is unlikely, but should it occur, get ready to catch it back around 7400 for a slow sideways recovery. Should it go below 7400 again, we will see much, much lower lows
Comment: 11500 touched, pulled back a bit and then breached, 12900 in sight in terms of momentum, but upward movement is still hesitant. Alt party was weak (only a couple coins, and no real boom was we were used to, even during the July 2017 bear). Makes me think we are not there yet, just a little bit more

For now, all is according to high probability plan
Comment: First retest of the green "return to mean" line done
Comment: Now you understand why we advised to sell almost everything from 10800 to 11200 on my previous ideas except the very long term investment stack, and why even it was challenged very soon after (see my "don't cross the streams !" idea), while hedging it with shorts. In the end, we added more around 7400 as planned from february 15th's update, only to sell half in good profit in the 8000-9000 area and rest at breakeven (both on the way down and on the retest up)

after selling the rest of it we kept making big profits on shorts and longs alike, and we will continue to do so until we hit "THE" panic or soft land in a low volatility bottom, or a real reversal signal

Now, we are looking to rebuild the longterm altcoin portfolio, as we see first signs of potential reversal in this market, even in a downtrend bitcoin, and have been giving warnings about an altcoin season, part 2 potential in early april since previous december. We have been trading it for now, but not invested in it. However, some technicals makes us reconsider that in the short term. We assumed it requiered a bullish bitcoin, but maybe not. For more infos on private analysis or trading teachings, contact me directly on tradingview, or join our Chart Attack chat
https://t.me/joinchat/G-KOhRBx5afNsL2LQTZYeg

Hope you enjoy my series.

Stay frosty
Comment: Altcoin boomed as predicted in the last 2 days
We took profit, and now wait the last drop of bitcoin, OR "the sign" of reversal (i think last drop)
Still using the map, same targets (4800 max, probably before)
Comment: What a great alt season. Thanks for following
Closed all altcoin swingtrades until btc's next move. Only daytrading alts now as late bloomers wake up.

As you can see if you hit "play", we moved back above the critical 7500$ and are in a heavy resistance zone (the curve)
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