My previous idea post was a selling opportunity from $12,000 to 11.1k - it has happened. It took a bit more time than expected but no worries, everything was perfect, we got a needed bearish candlestick pattern and the price has reached into the target area. Watch out - the fall can easily continue from the current price levels.
Yesterday's candle close was really promising for continuation short-term fall. Firstly, the rejection came from the previously spotted strong area:
1. Fibonacci Golden Ratio 62%. Pulled from the top to the 17. July low.
2. The long-term counter-trendline acted as a resistance level.
3. The crossing area is formed exactly around the round number $12,000 which acted as a resistance.
4. The mentioned crossing area around $12,000 was previously worked as a resistance level: on 4th July and on 12th July.
5. Plus we got a bearish "Railway Tracks" exactly on the 12k level and it was exactly this: "To be more secure wait for a bearish candlestick formation from the strong area..blablablaa."
It is important and it should be clear from where the previous rejection came. Now as said, yesterday we got a pretty bearish Daily candle close which got a rejection from the prementioned strong area. It looks like an Evening Star price action which guided the price below the short-term counter-trendline.
It looks like an Evening Star price action?
Basically, the current BTC price movement on the Daily is the same as on the textbook three candles Evening Star. It says, that the third candle has to close lower than the first candle middle point - red drawings are simulated as a line chart and they look really similar. Really good, we have a lower close below the first candle middle point and that's not SO important, for me, that how many candles are between those two big ones. Yes, the middle candles should stay on the range and fit nicely with them but overall 3-5 candles with low volume range between bigger green and red candle, it should be not a problem.
Summary: we got a Daily (which is also a strong statement) Evening Star price action from the strong area - a very powerful bearish combo.
The Evening Star formation guided the price below the short-term counter-trendline?
I have said multiple times about counter-trendline importance. Usually, it has offered several great trading opportunities after the breakout and luckily now we have a breakout.
We have a breakout downwards into the mid-term trend direction. After this year's high on 26th June, the Bitcoin price has made lower lows and lower highs. So, the mid-term trend is downwards and this counter-trendline was a short-term trendline upwards. This is broken now, which can indicate that the price has taken a mid-term trend direction and you already know to where?!....to downwards.
The price has made also a breakout from the triangle which was printed around 12k. It is also a small confirmation for the movements downwards.
SUMMARY: We got a really strong bearish price action from the earlier mentioned resistance at 12k:
- Daily Evening Star price action (Both together are wonderful)
- The price managed to crack sharp and reliable counter trendline which can drive the price into the mid-term direction and mid-term direction is downwards.
- We have a breakout downwards from the triangle.
So, I assume that the price can go downwards from the blue area. It would be nice if the price reaches $11,500-600 which is the optimal selling area.
The first target should stay around $10,500 but you have to be alerted because it can reach there very quickly. I just afraid a bit that pure 11k level. It has worked multiple times as a support and resistance level but it is what it is. Let's see what we get from here. Definitely, those criteria are powerful!
"If you asked me to distill trading down to its simplest form, I would say that it is a pattern
recognition numbers game. We use market analysis to identify patterns, define the risk, and
determine when to take profits. The trade either works or it doesn’t."
– Mark Douglas
Do your own research and if this matching with mine then you are ready to go!
Please, take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only FEE from You!
Best regards,
Vaido
Previous analysis:
Yesterday's candle close was really promising for continuation short-term fall. Firstly, the rejection came from the previously spotted strong area:
1. Fibonacci Golden Ratio 62%. Pulled from the top to the 17. July low.
2. The long-term counter-trendline acted as a resistance level.
3. The crossing area is formed exactly around the round number $12,000 which acted as a resistance.
4. The mentioned crossing area around $12,000 was previously worked as a resistance level: on 4th July and on 12th July.
5. Plus we got a bearish "Railway Tracks" exactly on the 12k level and it was exactly this: "To be more secure wait for a bearish candlestick formation from the strong area..blablablaa."
It is important and it should be clear from where the previous rejection came. Now as said, yesterday we got a pretty bearish Daily candle close which got a rejection from the prementioned strong area. It looks like an Evening Star price action which guided the price below the short-term counter-trendline.
It looks like an Evening Star price action?
Summary: we got a Daily (which is also a strong statement) Evening Star price action from the strong area - a very powerful bearish combo.
The Evening Star formation guided the price below the short-term counter-trendline?
We have a breakout downwards into the mid-term trend direction. After this year's high on 26th June, the Bitcoin price has made lower lows and lower highs. So, the mid-term trend is downwards and this counter-trendline was a short-term trendline upwards. This is broken now, which can indicate that the price has taken a mid-term trend direction and you already know to where?!....to downwards.
The price has made also a breakout from the triangle which was printed around 12k. It is also a small confirmation for the movements downwards.
SUMMARY: We got a really strong bearish price action from the earlier mentioned resistance at 12k:
- Daily Evening Star price action (Both together are wonderful)
- The price managed to crack sharp and reliable counter trendline which can drive the price into the mid-term direction and mid-term direction is downwards.
- We have a breakout downwards from the triangle.
So, I assume that the price can go downwards from the blue area. It would be nice if the price reaches $11,500-600 which is the optimal selling area.
The first target should stay around $10,500 but you have to be alerted because it can reach there very quickly. I just afraid a bit that pure 11k level. It has worked multiple times as a support and resistance level but it is what it is. Let's see what we get from here. Definitely, those criteria are powerful!
"If you asked me to distill trading down to its simplest form, I would say that it is a pattern
recognition numbers game. We use market analysis to identify patterns, define the risk, and
determine when to take profits. The trade either works or it doesn’t."
– Mark Douglas
Do your own research and if this matching with mine then you are ready to go!
Please, take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only FEE from You!
Best regards,
Vaido
Previous analysis:
Comment:
NEW BTC analysis:
1. Firstly, a perfect rejection from the mentioned area.
2. Break below the bear flag, which will be an indication that the fall can continue
3. A sloppy Head and Shoulders from the blue rejection area is also a slight indication that the price can go and touch the lower levels