VaidoVeek

BITCOIN | A Little Bounce Upwards?

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Last two idea post was pretty accurate because firstly, we identified the strong area around $12,000, we got a bearish candlestick pattern on the strong area (4H bearish Railway Tracks) and down it goes. Then a little consolidation, a breakout from the triangle and another bearish candlestick "pattern" - Evening Star price action on the Daily and down it goes, all short-term targets reached! Now let's try to catch a little wave upwards.

For me, the zone around 11k is still pretty strong and that's why I think that price needs to retest it after the break below of it.
To be said, I had this area marked also in the last idea post, because those arrow tips aren't there without a reason.

I'm slightly scared how the BTC price has reached the marked blue area, which should be a bounce area, but still, I would like to share my thoughts about it. If you don't dare to buy it then at least take profit in this area if you are short-term short.

Firstly, we have two parallel channels.
The blue parallel channel is pointed downwards. We have already touched it but hopefully, I don't post it too late. The blue parallel channel projection (bottom trendline ) should act as a support level .
There is another channel, a bit smaller, a bit weaker, a bit sharper BUT it matching exactly with the blue trendline . Those two together makes a crossing area which makes this area/support stronger.

Secondly, we have Fibonacci levels.
1. Drawn from the 17. July low to the 6th August high and the Fibo Golden Ratio 62% is around $10,300
2. Drawn from the 29. July low to the 6th August high and the Fibo Golden Ratio 62% is around $10,488 - which is also our channels bottom trendlines crossing area.

Thirdly, we have Fibonacci Extensions.
Drawn a bit differently but two Fibo Ex. 162% are exactly on our prementioned crossing area around $10,500.

Fourthly, AB=CD .
A bit subjective but let's see, probably it adds a bit strongness into our crossing area around $10,500

Fifthly, EMA .
Daily EMA50 is currently $10,5xx. It can and it should work as a support level .

Sixthly, retest situation.
As said before, the price has cracked the 11k and for me, this level is the post strongest horizontal level between 10-12k. So, I can assume that after the breakout the price wants to retest some higher areas and this area would be a perfect retest after the next leg downwards.


SUMMARY: It is a bit risky because as said, I don't like the price action really much. From there, it is just too easy to fall lower but the crossing area between channels and other criteria allowed to do this post here. If this doesn't match with your views than you can easily step aside but for shorts, it should be a profit-taking spot.


Do your own research and if this matching with mine then you are ready to go!
Please, take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only FEE from You!



Best regards,
Vaido

Mentioned previous ideas:


Comment: Interesting price action around the marked area on the 4H chart.
50 min. to go but we may get a bullish candlestick pattern from the strong area - The Hammer.
I'll make an update if this is confirmed, it would be a good sign for short-term growth.
Comment: BTC 4H timeframe update:

Sorry, if it looks like spam but actually I don't like 1H charts ;)
8500 coming
Reply
Hmmm no that didn't happen at all... Straight down to 10k. Now we have a bounce. Which makes sense. Not sure why everyone is agreeing with this?
Reply
marna_urs marna_urs
Now we head up to 11k
+1 Reply
broke support! Where to next? 10K support or to the 21 weekly EMA (8.5k region)?
Reply
Excellent Work Brother.
Not sure if you noticed but we recently had a 4H death cross of the fast and slow EMA's.
I believe that if 10150 support fails to hold we will easily dip sub 10K. Make note of key fib supports on my chart.
Reply
Clean chart and analysis, a high probability setup :) doing well Vaido!
Reply
Really good analysis. Keep up the great work! Regards.
Reply
It looks like it doesn't want to go up at all on this point.
+1 Reply
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