thehoplite
Short

Short. Target from (A) -5% decline.

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar

Don't listen to D4RK Energy or whatever that 'popular' user is saying. We are all here to do one thing and one thing only--Make money.
So, in response to our shared goal, I'm sharing a point of view that illustrates a decent short position to be taken.
Target price is at $7950 and stops placed at $8450.

I would advise against taking leverage higher than 10X.
That said, the gains we are looking for with 10X is a 50% return on the equity put down.
Our upper limit being at 8450 puts us at a 20% loss, should we climb against our expectation to fall.
Risk Vs Reward is conservatively @ 2.5, which is a level worth taking.

Probability for success is in our favor, given the preceding trend + wave pattern.

I would also make note of how we should continue to modify our wave recognition as the prices change. You should never label your waves and say "this is it! This is the end of wave (blank) and the start of wave (blank)". The pattern can always evolve and show us something with completely different meaning.

That said, I do believe we are in the first half of ABC correciton on the preceding down trend. I started the safe way by analyzing where volume and most robust wave coincide with one another to identify wave 3. It's very evident from this chart.

The other thing that solidifies my thoughts on where we are at is the ChandeMO , which is a powerful tool when paired with a MA of the same term length.
The signal could certainly bounce right off of the MA line, but we should also consider the relative height of where we're coming off from and pair that with the previous peaks going no higher than 85. The subsequent peaks on the momentum oscillator are shallower than the previous one.
So taking this in account with the volume we've seen over the past few days, I would expect this to pull us through a horizontal price movement over the next few days.

The developments within that horizontal movement is fairly key in determining if we will continue to ride the overall downtrend from 9900 or if we'll set a higher support at 7200-7500 and see a trend reversal from there.

As for the immediate task, I'll stand by my short position for the next day or so and hope to make that $300 goal.
On that note, I should also share some thoughts with you folks about trading that I think are very important.
1) Don't make outlandish predictions about the price of BTC in 2020
2) Don't put too much weight on "good" or "bad" news. It has almost no affect on the price we see in the present and MSM simply ties any and every event going on in the world to the price action already experienced, passing that off as the excuse. These events mean almost nothing because there is no intrinsic value from which we are pricing this asset to begin with. So, it's not as though there is anything fundamental we can gauge where the value 'should' be at. It just is whatever it is because people playing the game all have different goals that meet somewhere in the middle, which happens to be the price reflected at any time.
3) Go outside and get some sun. There is no point to watching the price move down to the minute. Give it a few checks within the day, see if your analysis still makes sense and go live your life. You'll make more money this way because you will have kept your perspective fresh.
Trade closed: target reached: Just cashed in on my short position. Mission was a success, and I still stand by my comments held against some of the TA "gurus" found on this site. Hope many of you were able to digest this information and get some great outcomes to this advice.
My goal is to help as many of you as possible while on my own mission to do better. We can't do that if we aren't working on ourselves and feeding some amount of doubt to our egos by saying " I don't know enough, and I need to know more".

Best to all of you, folks.

Comments

Followed. Good call.
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