Starting to get the impression the correction has ended. While its still early, id look for a move above 28897 to gain confidence.
If we do get a continuation off the lows here, above the 26500 would put us above the .236 of the local downtrend, and we'd look for that common retracement zone next.
A failure beneath it, or inside it, could be a red flag, and id explore the idea of a continuation lower. Starting at 23900.
If we break above the CRZ, and overhead supply, id look for a continuation to the 1.618 extension of the correction, into the 36k level at the 1.618 and potentially the 2.0.
This could also put 40678 (a 1.618 extension of wave 1), and 42247 on the table at that 50% retracement of the Bear market. There is also a pretty hefty imbalance there, at both of those wick highs, and i believe a gap on CME as well.
These levels are confluent with the broadening bottom / bullish dragon pattern i posted about earlier this year
A break of yesterdays lows would likely open the door to a full .618 retrace from the the high to low, and confirm an inverted dragon pattern, which is has the same target as a double top would be, around 20500, with that 23900 level being a stop prior, or potential low (which is also the 1.13 extension, turning the running flat into an expanded flat).
Confirmation is a close below and not touching the neckline, or even better a bearish checkback of the range low as resistance.
Cautiously optimistic here with economic data coming out tomorrow.
I also attached a 4hr chart showing a jcurve channel we reached on yesterdays dump, and breached above today.
If we do get a continuation off the lows here, above the 26500 would put us above the .236 of the local downtrend, and we'd look for that common retracement zone next.
A failure beneath it, or inside it, could be a red flag, and id explore the idea of a continuation lower. Starting at 23900.
If we break above the CRZ, and overhead supply, id look for a continuation to the 1.618 extension of the correction, into the 36k level at the 1.618 and potentially the 2.0.
This could also put 40678 (a 1.618 extension of wave 1), and 42247 on the table at that 50% retracement of the Bear market. There is also a pretty hefty imbalance there, at both of those wick highs, and i believe a gap on CME as well.
These levels are confluent with the broadening bottom / bullish dragon pattern i posted about earlier this year
A break of yesterdays lows would likely open the door to a full .618 retrace from the the high to low, and confirm an inverted dragon pattern, which is has the same target as a double top would be, around 20500, with that 23900 level being a stop prior, or potential low (which is also the 1.13 extension, turning the running flat into an expanded flat).
Confirmation is a close below and not touching the neckline, or even better a bearish checkback of the range low as resistance.
Cautiously optimistic here with economic data coming out tomorrow.
I also attached a 4hr chart showing a jcurve channel we reached on yesterdays dump, and breached above today.