DanV
Short

BTCUSD - STILL REMAINS IN OVERALL BEARISH CYCLE

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
In my last published chart I suggested that it was in final down leg of this bearish cycle.

Well, as you all know that low was anticipated to form around 240-220 to complete falling wedge. However the price sliced through that to 150 zone.

In falling wedge last leg could overshoot due to the fact that wedge is narrowing. But in this case it seems that the breach or overshoot is too significant and disproportional to rest of the pattern.

Additionally, the bounce from 150 - 300 in not in clear 5 waves, rather it is in 3 swing zigzag.

Hence, it called for a review and I conclude that the wave 3 has extended as is often the case with wave 3.

Therefore whilst not changing the analysis completely, I have adjust the counts to incorporate the plunge to 150 and feel that it was a wave 3 low. The current price action since is part of wave 4 retracement, which appears have 1st zigzag to upside to 300 and that is being retrace. Incompletion of which the second leg of the zigzag is due that might form possible double top around 300 -320 area.

[I have been sharing this provisional revision in the Bitcoin chat for sometime (see snapshot below) but was reluctant to publish it for the sake of it. Some clarity would help top publish meaningful update. Now though it seems].


Once this complete we will most likely see another decline from approx 300 -320 area and possibly drop to 100-80 zone.

Assuming that the move from Jan 2014 high is part of larger wave C of Ending Diagonal (falling wedge) of 3-3-3-3-3 construction.

This is probably the best outcome for BTCUSD             to form a major low around 100-80. In fact the worry is that that might not be the final low from which another Bullish Cycle could develop to retest all time high. The reason is that on log scale the price has dropped below the long term rising trendline support and it seems at present that to regain that, it will be a difficult task. In which case we have very long side way correction between Nov 2013 high and 100-80 that could last for another year or more before the Final Low could be in place.

I say that because our larger counts from early history has been on assumption which gave us reason to label Nov 2013 high as Wave 3 but in realty it could be wave 5 top. However we will just keep that in the back of our mind for now as we track our adjusted road map to expected low in the region of 100- 80.

I could host a live session next week to explain all this. If you are interested in this please indicate it by your moments and ensure you have tagged this chart for announcement of the scheduled and to obtain a link to join me.

As always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement.

Select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. If you like the analysis then please indicate this by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
danv-charting.com
DanV MOD
2 years ago
Above revised chart I have been sharing in the BItcoin chat for some time referred to above.
snapshot

+2 Reply
SunnyBTC PRO DanV
2 years ago
Count me in and let me know if I can do anything to help, Dan
Reply
DanV MOD SunnyBTC
2 years ago
Thanks, I will let you know as soon as I have scheduled it to have invitation sent out to wider a field.
+1 Reply
SunnyBTC PRO DanV
2 years ago
No problem. I'll make sure we get you good coverage
Reply
Great stuff as usual @DanV! Thanks for sharing. I, for one, am certainly interested in a live session.
Reply
DanV MOD AKWAnalytics
2 years ago
Thanks for that. Stay tuned for the live session.
Reply
alvarogg DanV
2 years ago
I am interested in a live session too. Thank you so much!
Reply
DanV MOD alvarogg
2 years ago
Thankyou. Stay tuned likewise.
Reply
DanV MOD alvarogg
2 years ago
Thankyou. Stay tuned likewise.
Reply
viajero AKWAnalytics
2 years ago
me too!
Reply
DanV MOD viajero
2 years ago
Thankyou. Stay tuned likewise.
Reply
DanV MOD AKWAnalytics
2 years ago
Thankyou. Stay tuned for details of the event as soon as I have scheduled it.
Reply
mkliethe PRO DanV
2 years ago
Interested, thanks DanV
Reply
Very much agreed DanV, good that I am on the same page as you...
BTCUSD: Next week is decision week

BTC: 5 quarter base
Reply
DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Excellent. You know what they say? Great minds think alike. lol
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO DanV
2 years ago
Thanks, means a lot ;) Count me in for the session too.
Reply
DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Sure will. Thanks.
Reply
DanV MOD
2 years ago
Many of you might be familiar with the article that was published in early January entitled - "Can Elliott Waves Really Predict the Price of Bitcoin?"

Well I drafted a reply almost a months ago, but for one thing and another, I have just posted this reply. You are welcomed to read and comments if appropriate. At least me know here what you think. Thanks. Link to the article - https://medium.com/@BTCsx/can-elliott-waves-really-predict-the-price-of-bitcoin-970ca430c7ff
+1 Reply
DoctorBitcoin
2 years ago
Great work as usual.
I'm interested in the Live session. Count me in!
Reply
DanV MOD DoctorBitcoin
2 years ago
Thanks you for your kind words. Stay tuned for the live session details.
+1 Reply
Mark_b
2 years ago
If this is true then, selling soon might be a very good idea. Thanks Dan.
Reply
DanV MOD Mark_b
2 years ago
In the very short term yes as it is in down leg. that could drop to 210-200 or even little lower but if it doesn't not drop that far it could have a very strong bounce.
Reply
DanV MOD
2 years ago
In case you cannot see my reply to that article here is a link to twitter I just published “Has anyone accurately predicted bitcoin’s price with Elliott Waves?
For the benefit of the…” https://medium.com/@DanV/has-anyone-accurately-predicted-bitcoin-s-price-with-elliott-waves-for-the-benefit-of-the-bb1c65c6a1e1?source=tw-f6577e5df0af-1424642157979
+1 Reply
blackswan
2 years ago
Interesting as always.. looking forward live session..
Reply
DanV MOD blackswan
2 years ago
Thanks. You are welcome. I look forward to sharing my views in live session too.
Reply
Thanks for the time and effort put into the chart and the narrative. I'm always interested in a chart perspective review. I do that a lot myself but mostly with my chart on bitcoinwisdom.

Dan V - "In my last published chart I suggested that it was in final down leg of this bearish cycle. Well, as you all know that low was anticipated to form around 240-220 to complete falling wedge. However the price sliced through that to 150 zone."

ProudClown - I feel the reason we have sliced through is because of the much lower price of BTC and more buyers to afford this lower price. As the price gets lower more buyers will be able to afford BTC and buy in. Look at the resistance we have had at 200 to 220. Bear whales have come to the conclusion it is hard to drop it much lower because of more competition buying back in at lower price levels with not enough BTC for sell to fill in the buy orders. Hence, all of the sideways waves with consolidation moves between 220 and 240 along each wave. I personally believe the whales are in protect mode for the moment. They are fearful to dump it much lower than 220 out of fear of the competition buying back in at levels lower than 220.

Dan V - "In falling wedge last leg could overshoot due to the fact that wedge is narrowing. But in this case it seems that the breach or overshoot is too significant and disproportional to rest of the pattern. Additionally, the bounce from 150 - 300 in not in clear 5 waves, rather it is in 3 swing zigzag. Hence, it called for a review and I conclude that the wave 3 has extended as is often the case with wave 3.

ProudClown - Yes, I believe it called for a review because of what I mentioned previously. Prices have fallen to a level now that it opens up room for more bullish buyers. Bears, are in protect mode. They can dump if they want to. However, they will find once again there will be much more competition to buy back in to those who "might" be willing to sell and take a loss. Most holders of BTC are willing to hold their BTC at these levels because most feel it will be going up. Therefore, we will not have downward pressure from Bears added to the downward pressure that comes from miners and retailers. I believe the bears are beginning to see they too must become bullish soon at these prices or miss out. Yes, they can dump here if they like. However, they will face lots of competition buying back in.

Dan V - "Therefore whilst not changing the analysis completely, I have adjust the counts to incorporate the plunge to 150 and feel that it was a wave 3 low. The current price action since is part of wave 4 retracement, which appears have 1st zigzag to upside to 300 and that is being retrace. Incompletion of which the second leg of the zigzag is due that might form possible double top around 300 -320 area. . Once this complete we will most likely see another decline from approx 300 -320 area and possibly drop to 100-80 zone."

ProudClown - BTC is not a commodity that is destined for $100 or $80 again. It is in an overall up trend. It just started out the gate ahead of it’s time with little usability. It is getting used more than what it was in January, 2014. BTC has more buyers as of late as well. The competition is high to buy BTC at prices lower than 220. Especially lower than 200. More are beginning to see below 200 as a bargain and the Bears know this. Look at how quickly it came up from 162 to 200 on January 14th in your charts. I believe we are very close to finding bottom as we approach the bottom of the bowl. The date of the bottom of the bowl is marked with the two blue lines drawn in the chart at March 12th and Aprtil 4th. The link: http://i.imgur.com/litVABa.jpg

I do not see a downward turn to $100 or $80. If we go by your chart eventually, this thing just runs into the ground and dies. Eventually, we must begin putting emphasis on the upward trend lines. Both of us know charts cannot predict future price. Especially as far out as 6 months in advance. They can assist to predict a future trend but even the trend can change if one considers the product, its use, who uses it, how many use it and many other specifics behind the product. That's what I'm looking at. The chart can be seen as "the box." I'm thinking outside "the box."
+5 Reply
ProwdClown PRO ProwdClown
2 years ago
I'm curious? Who gave the negative review but no comment?
-2 Reply
ProwdClown PRO ProwdClown
2 years ago
Cool.... Another negative comment. Anymore negatives are welcome... Thanks!!!
-2 Reply
DanV MOD ProwdClown
2 years ago
Thanks for your comments. You could be right about the low.

However, the fact it ranging between 220-240 as you point out is possibly showing buyers and sellers fairly well matched. Once we have imbalanced the price will move accordingly.

I have no specific reason for wishing the price to drop to $100 or even to zero if that is what my chart appears to imply, except that the low I anticipated based on EW rules around 240-220 did not hold and upon review it seems the wave 3 might have extended. If that conclusion is correct then it is possible that we will congest in the price range between where we are and possible 300-320 as the upper zone.

On completion, we will need wave 5 to complete. That could be equal low and form double bottom or drop lower. I will see what happens at that zone. If more buying pressure is evident then we could form a significant low there or it will drop even lower.

So one step at a time for me rather than run too far ahead. Thanks again, I appreciate your willingness to share.
+2 Reply
ProwdClown PRO DanV
2 years ago
I know you don't want it to fall to $100, Dan. I'm pretty sure of that. Judging from your views and publications, you have been at this with BTC for a while. So, you know as well as I do that things can change quickly. I just know also as the price gets cheaper, it prices more people in to buy. So, those who previously wanted to dump in hopes of a panic sell and buy back in to accumulate more coins have less chance of accumulating with more competition from others being priced in at these lower prices.

I'm only looking at what other side affects can be brought about with price of BTC lower.

Yes, these things do take time to play out. That's why I try to get would be traders not to focus so much on the "now" and pulled into the panic and the emotions. Trust your judgement and let it play out. Still have stop loss buys in place to make up for a possible turn of events against you and have more USD on the ready to buy more if we have blood in the streets at 172. We will see a lot of up and down between now and November. But I believe we stay on an average of 215 to 245 between now and November if we have no big news.
Reply
ProwdClown PRO DanV
2 years ago
I'm not saying we never go below 215 and not saying we never go above 245. Only saying the average between 215 and 245 between now and November without good news.
Reply
DanV MOD ProwdClown
2 years ago
I understand. If as you anticipate an average price of 215-245 then it is possible that in this congestion instead of a simple zigzag I have shown in my chart it could be come more complex on as annotated on chart which might offer more trading opportunity or frustrate many specially if we see sudden quick moves. It will keep us on our toes for sure.
Reply
ProwdClown PRO DanV
2 years ago
That's what I intend to convey, Sir.

I just think more buyers will be priced in as the price gets lower. I would think bears are in the business of making money . I think they found out January 14th we had a big rush to buy back in for the pump back to 200. They found they could not accumulate more coin at the lower price since we had more competing at the lower price.

I also feel this appearance of stabilization has brought more buyers into the fold who got out around 650 and 450. I think many see 200 as a bargain. I think we have a lot of buyers who see the potential of BTC and feel pretty confident about a big move in 2015. This big move remains to be played out. It all depends on the news we receive throughout the course of the year.

As for now, we have more buyers priced in at the present level which creates resistance against bearish moves to 200. We also have resistance at the 250 to 260 level to discourage serious bullish moves. I do expect decent 30 to 40 dollar swings up and down between now and November. Any more than that is ballsy on the part of bulls or bears. Either 30 to 40 dollar swing will not last long. It will correct itself rather quickly to where we are at present because more buyers are priced in at these lower price levels.
Reply
DanV MOD ProwdClown
2 years ago
Interesting. Will follow with keen interest. BTW what specifically do you have November in mind?
Reply
ProwdClown PRO DanV
2 years ago
I have the bottom of the bowl lasting from March 18 to July 23 before we can begin to possibly see an up trend to the price level you indicate in November on your chart. I should have been more descriptive about my expectations in November. I believe if we make it to March 18 above 220 we have begun our bottom of the bowl "on our toes" all the way to July 23.

July 23rd is marked with the yellow line on my wisdom chart: http://i.imgur.com/tgRCJQa.jpg

The price of BTC averaging 215 to 245 all during this time would give the illusion of a bottom being reached and more buyers coming into the game all during this time. More buyers means more resistance to a dump and giving us more of a bullish trend from July to November. What happens after November depends on the news. I don't see a high much higher than $400 between July and November without any good news. Such as COIN trading on NASDAQ.

Also, if BTC price goes back to greater than $325 again, we can expect miners who have turned off their rigs to turn them back on. If the price rises to $375 or higher over the course of a month from the time they turn them back on, we can expect more a little more downward pressure again from more miners on the network dumping but not as much as before. Why? Because the difficulty will be higher by that time and they will not mine as much BTC with those rigs they turn on as what they once mined. Eventually, mining will be more industrialized. I don't see industrialization complete until the Spring of next year with a network hash rate of approximately 430 PH/s and difficulty of approximately 68 Billion.

The manufacturers of mining rigs are slowly leaning towards selling only large form factor rigs and more than likely only selling them in bulk to outfits with cheap power. I know this cause I'm a miner as well.

+1 Reply
DanV MOD ProwdClown
2 years ago
Ahh, OK. Thanks for that. Appreciate you taking time to explain.
Reply
blackswan ProwdClown
2 years ago
i think you're way overoptimistic.. which is understandable since you're a miner and you need to recoup your investment... this is one reason i never follow analysis done by miners, nevertheless i still consider bitcoin exotic investment that no one should invest in if they are not prepared to lose, bitcoin is going through what dotcom bubble went through.. to this date it's nothing but hype that is yet to prove its worthy... there's so much competition bitcoin is going to face time to come that it's still at experimental stage with blockchain that has yet to prove its purpose.. there's nothing unique in it except being first mover advantage and you really think all those pension funds, hedge funds intend to subsidize miners? if they do then they deserve to lose their shirts...
i can see how most of the newcomers are caught up in this hype and don't see how bitcoin is way way overpriced even at current levels... and no i'm not a bear or bull, just someone who's trying to follow common sense and avoid losing my head in all this irrational exuberance about cryptos.. this is precisely why i like to follow charts by Dan and other analysts who are not biased as being a miner or someone who bought coins during their peak in 1000s or 800s... you really believe there's a real demand for bitcoin? think again, this market is rigged beyond your imagination.. you really think that there were that many buyers when over 100k coins were dumped? It was nothing but a clever ploy to move coins from one pocket to another on the same pants, so it was nice trick... anyway it's a long topic and most of the bagholders aren't going to like what i just posted.. however i will take advantage of swings and make sure i make as much as i can before the hysteria dies off...
+1 Reply
ProwdClown PRO blackswan
2 years ago
Well, I see you contributed your biased consensus on the blockchain technology and one of its apps called, "Bitcoin." You are entitled to your opinion. That's fine and dandy. I've given up spending my "valuable" time explaining the multitude of possibilities provided by the blockchain. If I thought the blockchain was a sham, I would not have invested $18,000 of my own money for mining and another $160,000 more will be invested in Q3/Q4 for mining rigs after I move from Alabama to Washington State.

This is my money and I will invest it how "I" see fit. Why you are so concerned about how "I" invest my money is beyond me. It's "my" money! Help someone else with "there" money if you feel the need to. I've got mine taken well care of. I also buy bitcoin. I believe it flourish over the next 10 years the same way the internet did in a similar amount of time starting in 1990's. This is a "risk" I'm taking and I'm getting into it early on. I waited for a while before getting involved. I did not start mining bitcoin until September this year. I did not start buying bitcoin until the January drop to $160's. If it drops again to that level, I will buy a hell of a lot more of it again; just as many others will at that price level. Hence, my reasoning behind there only being one place left for bitcoin to go: "up."

Read my reasoning behind my thoughts for it going up in price below the chart I've provided.

More Spoons (Buyers) Able to Dip In at the Bottom of the Bowl


I wonder... Are you chiming in because you "fear" the blockchain and the app, "bitcoin" are not going to fail as you had hoped? You are obviously a "new" troll with only 3 points. I think you are the one with the "hype" you plaster on this thread in the hopes of shying others away from bitcoin. Why even bother? You are only trolling... You say, "This is precisely why I like to follow charts by Dan and others who are not biased..." I think it's quite clear who the one is who is biased. It is you! With only 3 points, you obviously haven't followed Dan very long.

Why you feel the need to troll on me is weird, to say the least. I'm simply speculating on price with "no bias." Remember, I also buy the coin as well. I'm not a "dreamer" only "hoping" for bitcoin to do well without thoughtful investigations into it. Especially, since I'm going to invest nearly $250,000 total this year in rigs and purchasing coin on exchanges.

Have a good day, Sir.
-1 Reply
ukmartyn PRO blackswan
2 years ago
I can see both points of view here are valid. But with that in mind, I think it would be very difficult for BTC to go much below $150 (and remain there) simply because the market cap would be too low to stop further price manipulation and volatility, which would lead to further loss of credibility. BTC would be on the critical list if it hung around at $100-150 too long.
Reply
DanV MOD ukmartyn
2 years ago
Thanks for your comment. I would tend to agree.

However like in most markets, one thing Bitcoiners should have learnt since Nov 2013 high is that one cannot be too dogmatic and say it will never drop to such and such a level or that it will not stay there for extended period.

Hence be open to review as necessary on further price data are available with passage of time.

Reply
blackswan ProwdClown
2 years ago
i think you're way overoptimistic.. which is understandable since you're a miner and you need to recoup your investment... this is one reason i never follow analysis done by miners, nevertheless i still consider bitcoin exotic investment that no one should invest in if they are not prepared to lose, bitcoin is going through what dotcom bubble went through.. to this date it's nothing but hype that is yet to prove its worthy... there's so much competition bitcoin is going to face time to come that it's still at experimental stage with blockchain that has yet to prove its purpose.. there's nothing unique in it except being first mover advantage and you really think all those pension funds, hedge funds intend to subsidize miners? if they do then they deserve to lose their shirts...
i can see how most of the newcomers are caught up in this hype and don't see how bitcoin is way way overpriced even at current levels... and no i'm not a bear or bull, just someone who's trying to follow common sense and avoid losing my head in all this irrational exuberance about cryptos.. this is precisely why i like to follow charts by Dan and other analysts who are not biased as being a miner or someone who bought coins during their peak in 1000s or 800s... you really believe there's a real demand for bitcoin? think again, this market is rigged beyond your imagination.. you really think that there were that many buyers when over 100k coins were dumped? It was nothing but a clever ploy to move coins from one pocket to another on the same pants, so it was nice trick... anyway it's a long topic and most of the bagholders aren't going to like what i just posted.. however i will take advantage of swings and make sure i make as much as i can before the hysteria dies off...
Reply
kemal.erdog ProwdClown
2 years ago
i gave possitive comment, your words make more sense.
Reply
mudfarmer
2 years ago
please i would love to listen in. i find your insights very helpful and insightful. Thanks!
Reply
DanV MOD mudfarmer
2 years ago
Thank you for that.

Stay tuned for the details.
Reply
Dafinci PRO
2 years ago
Hi DanV, I would love to join your webinar again. Love the analysis and thoughts!
Reply
Dafinci PRO Dafinci
2 years ago
Hi DanV, is there a reason why you do your graphs in log scale? When I draw trendlines on a normal scale, when it is put into log scale, the trend line is no longer linear
Reply
DanV MOD Dafinci
2 years ago

Hi. Thank you for your appreciation. Stay tuned to details of the live session I will post here.

With reference to arithmetic scale or log scale - when the difference in the period you are analysing is not too great, it is fine to use arithmetic scale. However when this difference is so big I tend to use Log scale as it helps to put in top perspective changes in price at lower end be that in bearish cycle as in this case or in bullish cycle leading up to Nov 2013 high.

You are correct that the trendline drawn on one will not match the other.
This is one reason why some have been arguing earlier to suggest that downtrend since Nov 2013 hi has been broken where as in fact we are still in one.

Hope this helps.
Reply
Globb0
2 years ago
Following, thanks. :)
Reply
DanV MOD Globb0
2 years ago
You are welcome. Thank you. I hope you will like the analysis and find it helpful.
Reply
gordon.koo.3
2 years ago
Nice! I would be interested in the live session as well.
Reply
DanV MOD gordon.koo.3
2 years ago
Thank you for your interest. I will update you with the details as soon as I have scheduled it.
Reply
Schokobaer
2 years ago
Thank you for your work Dan, please count me in for the meeting.
Reply
DanV MOD Schokobaer
2 years ago
OK, thank you for your interest. Stay tuned for the details.
Reply
Sprks DanV
2 years ago
hi Dan, pls include me for the live session. much appreciated
Reply
DanV MOD Sprks
2 years ago
Thank you for your interest. I will post the details in the update here. Stay tuned.
Reply
jdczrs DanV
2 years ago
Hi Dan, please include me, I'd like to attend as well
Reply
DanV MOD jdczrs
2 years ago
Thank you for your interest. The details and link to join are posted just below here. Look forward to you joining me on Sunday.
Reply
DanV MOD
2 years ago
Details of Live sessions this weekend - Sunday @ 10:00 am London UK time


Title - Bitcoin - It's likely prospects for 2015 and beyond.

Plan to cover the following:

Reviewing price action leading to Nov 2013 high and exploring how the bearish cycle to date fits in.

What conclusions could be drawn of its prospects for the remainder of 2015 and beyond purely from technical analysis view point.

Approximately 1hr and 30 min (however this will depend on how long Q&A will take)

Youtube Link - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfFxr7sabPk


You will be able to interact with me during the sessions using my chat room at tradingview https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#E4bnOJSWcO1zDjBG However I will only be able to check for comments and questions at certain intervals or at the end.

Hope may of you will be able to attend.

Look forward to it.

Thanks you.
+6 Reply
alex.falko.7 PRO DanV
2 years ago
Thanks, DanV. Very informative, as usual.

Reply
DanV MOD
2 years ago
This rocket launch need to clear 268 relatively quickly otherwise it is likely to head south again.
snapshot
+1 Reply
princeofcoin DanV
2 years ago
Dan,
The rocket launch cleared 268.
Does your previous wave interpretation still stand, i.e. looking for drop back to 190 zone?
Great google hangout the other day, thanks for doing that.
+1 Reply
DanV MOD princeofcoin
2 years ago
Thankyou for your comments and appreciation. As per the chart above it still possible, however also we are now so close to the upside target of 300-320 in which case we might continue to the upside and complete this without dropping to 200 first.

So for now the bias is to the upside provided stop loss are used on any long position till we reach 300-320 zone and see how price reacts at that level before revising the adjustment on wave counts.
+2 Reply
princeofcoin DanV
2 years ago
Makes sense from what I can see on the weekly log chart showing current bias for upside as high up as 346.
+1 Reply
herrschmidt
2 years ago
Hi DanV,
I watched your Webinar last night on youtube, very informative, thanks a lot!!
I was wondering if you were aware of the countdown to the next Bitcoin block halving?
Currently it is expected that the miner's reward for validating bitcoin transactions will be cut in half in july 2016.
Here is a countdown: http://bitcoinclock.com/

This will severely affect the bitcoin supply. Does this fit