BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
In my last published chart I suggested that it was in final down leg of this bearish cycle.

Well, as you all know that low was anticipated to form around 240-220 to complete falling wedge . However the price sliced through that to 150 zone.

In falling wedge last leg could overshoot due to the fact that wedge is narrowing. But in this case it seems that the breach or overshoot is too significant and disproportional to rest of the pattern.

Additionally, the bounce from 150 - 300 in not in clear 5 waves, rather it is in 3 swing zigzag .

Hence, it called for a review and I conclude that the wave 3 has extended as is often the case with wave 3.

Therefore whilst not changing the analysis completely, I have adjust the counts to incorporate the plunge to 150 and feel that it was a wave 3 low. The current price action since is part of wave 4 retracement, which appears have 1st zigzag to upside to 300 and that is being retrace. Incompletion of which the second leg of the zigzag is due that might form possible double top around 300 -320 area.

[I have been sharing this provisional revision in the Bitcoin chat for sometime (see snapshot below) but was reluctant to publish it for the sake of it. Some clarity would help top publish meaningful update. Now though it seems].

Once this complete we will most likely see another decline from approx 300 -320 area and possibly drop to 100-80 zone.

Assuming that the move from Jan 2014 high is part of larger wave C of Ending Diagonal ( falling wedge ) of 3-3-3-3-3 construction.

This is probably the best outcome for BTCUSD to form a major low around 100-80. In fact the worry is that that might not be the final low from which another Bullish Cycle could develop to retest all time high. The reason is that on log scale the price has dropped below the long term rising trendline support and it seems at present that to regain that, it will be a difficult task. In which case we have very long side way correction between Nov 2013 high and 100-80 that could last for another year or more before the Final Low could be in place.

I say that because our larger counts from early history has been on assumption which gave us reason to label Nov 2013 high as Wave 3 but in realty it could be wave 5 top. However we will just keep that in the back of our mind for now as we track our adjusted road map to expected low in the region of 100- 80.

I could host a live session next week to explain all this. If you are interested in this please indicate it by your moments and ensure you have tagged this chart for announcement of the scheduled and to obtain a link to join me.

As always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement.

Select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. If you like the analysis then please indicate this by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

Updated chart published
Hi, DanV. Really appreciate your technical analysis. May I ask wave 4 did not touch wave 1, will it invalid wave as an ending diagonal ? I'm not that experience with EW yet, can wave be an impulse?
DanV PlayDefence
Thankyou for your question and appreciation.

your are correct, ideally if would be better if we get wave overlap with wave 1.

My previously anticipated wave 5 of the ending diagonal to form a low in the 240 range went well beyond it and the subsequent price action has not been impulsive move to the upside. Hence I have changed counts to accommodate that spike low at 151 whilst still holding to ending diagonal idea,

If this proved to be wrong then as I have explained in the video, we might end up with the entire correction from Nov 2013 high as just complex zigzags forming larger WAVE A. With Wave B & C to follow which could take a long time to complete if possible wave A is any guide which still appears to be in progress. Video Link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfFxr7sabPk

To clarify we need more data. Therefore till we have that I am holding the view that this is still ending diagonal, but on the lookout for clues.

Hope this helps.
Thanks for such an informative reply, DanV. Cannot deny that I'm flattered. Also, thanks for the video ;)
On Finex - Since the low at 210 we moved up in what looks like an Ending Diagonal with clear 5 waves, therefore, 270 is now taking added importance as the last stand to avoid further decline. If that fails we could be in new bearish cycle with potential for retesting the last lows.
+1 Reply
which would the "last lows" be for bfinex? thanks for your running commentry on this!
DanV dekanifisher
Well, if the 270 give way then the bullish channel since 210 would have been breached. Hence 210 would likely be the first target. But ultimately 150 lows could not be ruled out and high probable following the main chart on daily time frame as our roadmap.
DanV dekanifisher
Hi All. Good Evening. It seem like trying to tip toe into lower half of the channelhttps://www.
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