Buyers are at risk of seeing price return to their entries or lowers, sellers at the mercy of margin calls if highly leveraged. I sit in cash, and will remain in cash until we get a buy signal during the first days of April as per the chart. Then I will decide wether to sell, or sell short at resistance, as it is highly unlikely to breach the mode resistance in black. Note this is a 3 day timeframe trend signal, but the chart here is daily to highlight an obvious people watch.
looks like it may go lower first, support didn't hold for now. It seemed to but it's broken down now due to some news of irrelevant japanese exchanges.
We seem to have strong buyers back at the CTFC/SEC hearing key level zone - #BTCUSD chart
Weekly #BTCUSD chart: We might still be trending down for 2 or 3 weeks more. Sellers trapped bulls today, right at weekly resistance, indicating this trend is still valid possibly. We watch from afar to buy the bottom. Fiat = best coin to hodl now.
Only the 2 month timeframe remains bearish, with a sideways/downside bias due to the main trend having ended in December 2017. This keeps the market under pressure until June 2019.
The 2 month timeframe bars indicate we should go sideways in a range, or back down to $442 by June 2019 or sooner, but, in general, this tells us that there is no chance of seeing further growth in the long term trend, until enough time passes to cool off and at the same time let the smart money accumulate and absorb the supply from frustrated buyers who get trapped in loss over time.
From that initial asessment that we made, that was a prediction for a top in December 2017, for 20 months, two paths open up: sideways for 20 months, down to $442 within 20 months. It doesn't mean that the bottom will ONLY be found in that time, it could be that gyrations in shorter term time scales cause price to eventually bottom sooner than that, to then base going sideways after an initial bounce -like it happened in 2015 when we almost hit $150. It bounced, then went sideways at a higher level before going up.-
We don't know the exact shape of the bear market, but we could predict prices wouldn't continue the violent growth we saw during 2016 and 2017, contrary to popular belief at the time -back in December-.
I know that most people fomo'd in after we broke 10k, initially, until it hit the top, so that range of prices is less likely to hold if revisited, since it would let them break even. Break even sellers would put pressure on advancing prices approaching that zone.
From lower timeframes, we see that there was a weekly and 3 day per bar timeframe downtrend. The 3 day tf one ended already. Since the time for the 3 day trend expired in April 4-6th, the implications from that timeframe are that price should return to the distribution level, the mode or price with the most activity during the sideways range after an initial decline from the top, or alternatively, grind sideways and form a new distribution level, down here.
Since price jumped up already, it's clear it wants to retest the sellers' up at the distribution level I drew in black in my chart here.
Daily trend had a potential bearish signal, that failed to work, as price moved back over the potential distribution level, it became clear that bulls were accumulating long positions, absorbing supply from shorts, who got squeezed on yesterday's jump. Now with no more sellers left, this should glide higher from here.
Additionally, the daily has a new 9 day uptrend signal in place now, so we can expect upside from that timeframe for that long at least. In time, by April 22nd, the weekly trend will also be up, so we will have daily, 3-day, weekly, all pointing up, and 2-month tf pointing sideways/down. By the time the upside is met as per lower timeframe expectations, it's likely that higher timeframe sellers will strike again, with a vengeance, as we test the place from where most of the selling took place at.
Target the 11k zone within a few weeks.
my guess for a 3 day dip did come to fruition, just 2 days later when people got EIP
I added at 7870 ish
first entry was 7689, 2nd entry at 8112.1, and the last and bigger one near today's low. I didn't manage to exit my short instantly at my 'stop' at 7024, cause I didn't place a stop order -I never use them- I had an alert ring and acted on it with some delay to flip long. It's ok, slightly shittier entry, but overall fine
Downside momentum could resume at any time after we retest 9900-11500
but there would be upside pressure possibly until June 9th max
that's a long time to go up, most likely gonna spend half of it going sideways once we top
building for the next swing down, absorbing demand, as liquidity for new shorts
until buyers can't bid it up no more and run out of ammo.
To be safe, I want to avoid risk from weekly sellers suddenly frustrating the daily uptrend. Keep in mind we're in a bear market in the longest term timeframe, and it can turn the tide suddenly, once long term sellers act again.
Previous signal was a bearish failure, thus a buy signal when time ran out...maybe we get yet another of these after the next decline ends. Signal not yet confirmed btw, hence the dotted line.
I'll publish as a stand alone bearish idea.