1 day - 3 day: short squeeze/test top of triangle at $7,500 -$7,650 | 3d - 1 week: Retest $6,000 | 1 month predictions: < $5,750 by 9/24 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: “Due to green 7 on TD' Sequential I am expecting two more days to the upside and will be crossing my fingers for a 9 at resistance combined with a reversal candle to provide a perfected entry.” / sidelines
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $7,150 | S: $6,800
BTCUSDSHORTS: Have pulled back 32% while price only bounced while price is only +1.1% since short squeeze.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0116%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 & 26 = + 1.18% | If price breaks down EMA’s it would be a good confirmation to enter a short.
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -2.20% | 128 = -7.05% | breaking down 50 MA is very
Volume: Still significantly lower than average. Watch for it to pick up drastically if/when we break down $6,800.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,895 | 0.786 = $6,509
analysis: + confirmed
Cloud: Held as resistance, back in fully territory. Unresolved c clamp on weekly.
TD’ Sequential: Daily G8
Visible Range: $6,368 remains the crucial area of support as it is the point of control over the last 6 months.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -2.84% | 24h = -3.56% | 1w = +4.76% | 2w = +4.86% | 1m = -16.62%
Bands: Expected to retest Daily MA at $6,532 after pulling back from the top band.
Trendline: Connects Aug 22nd - Aug 26th and is currently being violated
Fractals: Down = $6,230 | UP = $8,314
On Balance Volume: No div’
ADX: found support at 15, indicating that we have ranged for long enough and should start to trend again soon. and converging, expect them to cross in the next week.
Chaikin Money Flow: This thing has been all over the place and I have not found it useful at all over the past couple weeks. Bull div’ then bear div’ now bull div’ on daily. Massive bull div’ on weekly has become a very significant bear div’.
(30 setting): W = 49.6 | D = 49.67
Stoch: Sell signal on daily. 3d shows plenty of room left.
Summary: Looks like we are just going to miss the perfected entry that I was hoping for yesterday. Instead we got a + a which provided a low risk entry yesterday. Unfortunately I was on the golf course and unable to sell once the current candle traded below yesterday’s HM.
Now I am thinking today will be a great time to open a short and tomorrow/this weekend will be the time to add to it (if and only if it is moving in our favor).
I will be watching for the following and entering my position in quarters following each confirmation:
Bounce from $6,800 support creates lower high below $7,128 or a .
Breaking down $6,670 would make for a very weekly candle and would firmly put us back below $6,800 resistance.
Breaking down $6,368 puts us back below the point of control on the visible range when looking back 6 months.
Taking out 2 week lows at $6,179 would provide the final confirmation.
I will be watching Bitcoin’ for confirmation to enter and then I will be shorting ETH. When/if it breaks down $260 I am expecting it to get ugly.
As is stands right now I would be placing stops right above yesterday’s high.