Bitcoin Daily Update (day 184)

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

1 day - 3 day: short squeeze/test top of triangle at $7,500 -$7,650 | 3d - 1 week: Retest $6,000 | 1 month predictions: < $5,750 by 9/24 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: “Due to green 7 on TD' Sequential I am expecting two more days to the upside and will be crossing my fingers for a 9 at resistance combined with a reversal candle to provide a perfected entry.” / sidelines
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $7,150 | S: $6,800
BTCUSDSHORTS: Have pulled back 32% while price only bounced while price is only +1.1% since short squeeze.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0116%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 & 26 = + 1.18% | If price breaks down EMA’s it would be a good confirmation to enter a short.
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -2.20% | 128 = -7.05% | breaking down 50 MA is very bearish
Volume: Still significantly lower than average. Watch for it to pick up drastically if/when we break down $6,800.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,895 | 0.786 = $6,509
Candlestick analysis: Hanging man + tweezer top confirmed
Ichimoku Cloud: Held as resistance, back in fully bearish territory. Unresolved c clamp on weekly.
TD’ Sequential: Daily G8
Visible Range: $6,368 remains the crucial area of support as it is the point of control over the last 6 months.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -2.84% | 24h = -3.56% | 1w = +4.76% | 2w = +4.86% | 1m = -16.62%
Bollinger Bands: Expected to retest Daily MA at $6,532 after pulling back from the top band.
Trendline: Connects Aug 22nd - Aug 26th and is currently being violated
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Down = $6,230 | UP = $8,314
On Balance Volume: No div’
ADX: ADX found support at 15, indicating that we have ranged for long enough and should start to trend again soon. -DI and +DI converging, expect them to cross in the next week.
Chaikin Money Flow: This thing has been all over the place and I have not found it useful at all over the past couple weeks. Bull div’ then bear div’ now bull div’ on daily. Massive bull div’ on weekly has become a very significant bear div’.
RSI (30 setting): W = 49.6 | D = 49.67
Stoch: Sell signal on daily. 3d shows plenty of room left.

Summary: Looks like we are just going to miss the perfected entry that I was hoping for yesterday. Instead we got a hanging man + a tweezer top which provided a low risk entry yesterday. Unfortunately I was on the golf course and unable to sell once the current candle traded below yesterday’s HM.

Now I am thinking today will be a great time to open a short and tomorrow/this weekend will be the time to add to it (if and only if it is moving in our favor).

I will be watching for the following and entering my position in quarters following each confirmation:

Bounce from $6,800 support creates lower high below $7,128 or a double top .

Breaking down $6,670 would make for a very bearish weekly candle and would firmly put us back below $6,800 resistance.

Breaking down $6,368 puts us back below the point of control on the visible range volume profile when looking back 6 months.

Taking out 2 week lows at $6,179 would provide the final confirmation.

I will be watching Bitcoin’ for confirmation to enter and then I will be shorting ETH. When/if it breaks down $260 I am expecting it to get ugly.

As is stands right now I would be placing stops right above yesterday’s high.
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