Exponential patterns are difficult to predict, but here are a few reasons I could see this playing out with a 20% likelihood is my guess.
1) The prior-midcycle peak extended all the way up to a 30% drawdown from the prior all time high. If this rally even only goes to a 40% drawdown to account for diminishing returns, it would put Bitcoin at around 40k. 35k to be safe.
2) The upper trendline slope from ATH to mid-cycle peak for today's cycle, puts us well below what we could consider a best case scenario rally.
3) The weekly RSI is also in high risk territory, but previously this went well above 70, indicating more upside is absolutely possible.
4) The FOMC meeting will occur on May 3rd, which could either landmark the last rate hike or a pause. Either way, it infers the pivot is near, which often triggers a trend reversal. Therefore, a continuation to the upside could be likely.
5) Furthermore, I keep hearing youtubers say "sell in May and go away". If sentiment becomes that the selloff won't begin until May, then we could again see more upside in the short term.
6) I've had a few friends reach out recently about getting into bitcoin at 30k. Ignorant investors are still buying at these high risk levels despite a likely correction to come, eventually.
Counterpoints are that we're at an obviously tough resistance zone, macro elements are different from 2019, recession inbound, and BlackRock CEO making a large stock sell aka huge bearish signal.
Good luck and manage your risk wisely.
1) The prior-midcycle peak extended all the way up to a 30% drawdown from the prior all time high. If this rally even only goes to a 40% drawdown to account for diminishing returns, it would put Bitcoin at around 40k. 35k to be safe.
2) The upper trendline slope from ATH to mid-cycle peak for today's cycle, puts us well below what we could consider a best case scenario rally.
3) The weekly RSI is also in high risk territory, but previously this went well above 70, indicating more upside is absolutely possible.
4) The FOMC meeting will occur on May 3rd, which could either landmark the last rate hike or a pause. Either way, it infers the pivot is near, which often triggers a trend reversal. Therefore, a continuation to the upside could be likely.
5) Furthermore, I keep hearing youtubers say "sell in May and go away". If sentiment becomes that the selloff won't begin until May, then we could again see more upside in the short term.
6) I've had a few friends reach out recently about getting into bitcoin at 30k. Ignorant investors are still buying at these high risk levels despite a likely correction to come, eventually.
Counterpoints are that we're at an obviously tough resistance zone, macro elements are different from 2019, recession inbound, and BlackRock CEO making a large stock sell aka huge bearish signal.
Good luck and manage your risk wisely.
Comment:
Bitcoin never ended up squeezing higher, but rather we're starting the much more likely case of breaking down. The Great Ben Cowen believes there's a 60% change we'll put in a new bottom, assuming a Q3/4 recession hits. Nothing is guaranteed, but we're down 17% from the 31k high and a decent area to continue to DCS into bitcoin, but have cash ready in case it does happen to go much lower.
