The weekend rally ran out of impetus by Sunday night with no impetus still from far East. Since then Bitcoin has zig-zagged
back down in a continuation pattern, finding support from just above fixed and dynamic support junction at 10772 on
chart and bouncing back up to test the parallel above it before recoiling once more. Whilst this price action is
therefore still providing a great space for day traders to trade within the parallels, it's not much help to swing traders as yet.
But the near term and the dynamic support below price at 10772 has turned Bitcoin neutral in the very
near term and given succour to the bulls for now, creating the little rally we've just seen. The bears are fighting back from
10987-11000 range and whilst they can hold price under here they remain in control still. Aggressive bears continue to sell
from tests of the upper parallel and aggressive bulls buy from tests of support just above 10772, creating this stale-mate
within this range for all but day traders right now.
Next Buy and Sell set-ups for Swing/larger Trades:
Bull case: Bitcoin is trying to base out here and 10772 is best place to do it from. If so it will bounce from 10875 first
support and from 10772 at lowest now and then break above
10987-11000 and hold on any retest once broken above...that price action will flip Bitcoin back to positive and we can look
to buy with stops below 10950/the parallel once broken.
Bear Case: (beginning to lose it, especially if 10875 holds now)
Bitcoin has to break below 10772 by 20 points or more to trigger a short back to 10547 initially, then to 10262 and then
to 9912 in all likelhood.
Can short again of Coindase breaks lower from here but it'son support now so can close out
If trading via Bitfinex and still short here it looks weak still here whilst below 10500 so can set stops just a lttle above here on this exchange. Each exchange is giving slightly different levels so this is difficult to get stops properly placed but it doesn't look as if this decline is over yet
Get ready to close out shorts at 9960-9950 if we see it sticking there. But if f 9940 is broken short again down to 9093 with minor support at 9317 perhaps giving rise to small counter-rally .
This short is going well and should hit 9932 on this chart but as Coinbase has support at 9960-9950 can look to close out soon here too if we see it stall and stick...then if 9920 is broken here can short again or from higher up if we get the bounce from 9950-9930 range
Get ready to close this short out too. should come back to 10000-9900 range so close out here
Updates for Bitstamp and Coinbase next - markets moving fast and these feeds are separating agin after coming so close together earlier...making for tricky/non-stop updates...sorry for this. Cannot really be avoided right now
Bitcoin has flipped down to spike at the next blue line of support at 9757 - nearly 200 points lower that Bitfinex but has rallied back and is using the blue lines as support now. Can rally to 10195 from here so day traders are buying back again
This also flipped lower to 9700 but i snow back on th esupport line at 9950 and trying hard to cling on there. If it fails and as importantly, if Bitfinex breaks below 9900 by more than 20 points can look to short again with stops above 9950
Another direct hit on the blue line of near term support at 9757 - it still doesn't look like stabilising but is holding on the blue line above here for now. Once 9740 gives way it should fall further to 9371, bounce a little and then finish with a selling climax at 9210-9200 - ideally it will finish there which is also where the longer term dynamic will likely come into play, waiting there under 9200 on Bitstamp. If we see this price action develop then look to short again on break below 9730 and buy back/reverse long again at 9200 with stops below. And then if 9200 should fail at any point be ready to short once more. It should hold here, hence the reverse positions. But it's Bitcoin. We have to be prepared for anything.
Upside here is being held back under 10000. It has to break above here to climb 195 points to 10195 before it comes off once more
Back on the lows here. The 9710-9700 levels are key to near term. Any failure here signals next short to 9397 minimum and more likely, after a bounce here, to 9093 where we look to reverse long again with stops under 9050 - if 9050 then gives way we once again switch back to short. This is a game of cat and mouse. Either watch or play, but if the latter please try to use stops, even if carried in your head. And remember my stops are tight, sometimes just a tad too tight in fast markets. Some pros don't use them for this reason and most times directional trades go well without them. But if newer please use them wherever possible.
Oh Jeez. chasing three exchanges's prices all over the ether has put paid to this call on this feed. Should have covered this first by look of it so must apologise to those trading this exchange on back of signals given here. A low print at 9860 has ruined this short call and will have been stopped out for 50 or so loss if shorted from 9900 break if using stops. Not good, but could have been much worse.
It should rally to 10300 and then come off again from here - can short again with stops above 10300 or short/add on break below 9850 with stops 50 or so above
Price is getting squezed between th espike above it an dthe spikes below into a narrowing range as Bitcoin comes back to 9950 again - below here support building at 9760-9710 - but if 9940 fails now it will likley retst the lows and could well break lower this time...we need to watch any retest of the lows carefully if we see them again soon...is it holding up still there or is it sliding lower and no sign of support to be seen? If the latter stay short or get ready to short again. Maybe we have to get this over with soon - we'll know that if/when 9950 and then 9750 are tested.
Good bounce from the bodies of last candles at 9950 so it's passed the first test for bulls. Now the top of the candle bodies at 10200 is the next test - has to find enough buyers now to push up higher above here and it stands a chance of stabilising. But if it now fails at 10200 on this rally we need to be ready for another fall. This roller-coaster isn't ride isn't over yet most likely but whilst 9950 holds out Bitcoin bulls are just about safe, but the bears are still out and don't want to back off yet. 9950 and 9750 are the bulls' last lines of defence. and they still look precarious at this point
At least this chart has continued to behave well technically, bouncing between the lines fairly accuurately all day, so far. Now testing the 9900 line again with next support at 9750...should try to bounce again soon if it's to make a stand annd flip back higher again from here...if it can find buyers enough here to bounce now that would be first positive signal for a while (higher low) and then it has to regain 10270 and hold up...- if short still from 10262 retest here suggest lowering stops to 10085 for small win if struck.
On downside any break below 9750 can be shorted again back to 9371 at least and likely to 9210-9200 where will look to reverse if stuck with stops 50 or so lower.