After yesterdays dump I was supremely confident that we would be testing our local low of 5850 again. Boy was I humbled. After adding to my already considerable short at 6300, after the wall at 6310 fell (and what an epic battle that was, the volume was just insane) I was suprised to see how bears ran out of fuel at 6245. Fortunately I had set a stop loss for the amount I had added at 6310, so not a lot of harm was done, only lost a few bucks.
What was indeed surprising was the huge rally while I was sleeping (sneaky russians I guess....?) which managed to get the price back to the average of yesterday.
From a netrual point of view, I would say that lower highs and lower lows are a strong case for bears, but you have to start wondering if after:
- EMA9 crossing down on SMA20
- Low volume all weekend
- Failure to break the local top at 6600ish, and then failure to get there again
- Low volume after pumps
- Breaking decisively down the HUGE ascending triangle I've been following for weeks
- Breaking down with HUGE volume the battle for 6310
AND STILL NOT DUMPING TO A NEW LOW, Maybe... maybe the bulls are just not willing, no matter what, to let this one fall. In two days time we should have an ETF decision, which has shown to be a strong fundamental that affects greatly the price. Which way, that's the huge question.
I am a little bit underwater and will probably be setting a tight stop loss, since I'd rather leave money on the table after the ETF decision, than eat up a huge green candle that takes a chunk of my trading stash.
As for AT itself, after yesterdays shenanigans, We are still looking for any figure to form. Before going to sleep I drew the solid orange line to check if it could act and resistance and it did, and very well. The dotted orange line at the bottom of the triangle hasn't been tested since I drew it, so it might be off, but it would definitely make sense. For now, we found a smaller triangle which I also marked with a solid orange line. That one should be resolved in no more than 8 hours, but most it will likely sooner.
As all symmetrical triangles, it could go either way. If it goes down, I have to expect yesterdays battlefield at 6310 will still form some kind of support, below that who knows. I've been claiming for 6120 and then 5850 for a week, and bulls have shown me that they can do better. You also have to consider that ema9 has crossed sma20 on its way up (marked it with a green arrow), which is very bullish to me, but since we didn't dump enough after last time tose two crossed down, I do not expect it to have a huge impact.
What was indeed surprising was the huge rally while I was sleeping (sneaky russians I guess....?) which managed to get the price back to the average of yesterday.
From a netrual point of view, I would say that lower highs and lower lows are a strong case for bears, but you have to start wondering if after:
- EMA9 crossing down on SMA20
- Low volume all weekend
- Failure to break the local top at 6600ish, and then failure to get there again
- Low volume after pumps
- Breaking decisively down the HUGE ascending triangle I've been following for weeks
- Breaking down with HUGE volume the battle for 6310
AND STILL NOT DUMPING TO A NEW LOW, Maybe... maybe the bulls are just not willing, no matter what, to let this one fall. In two days time we should have an ETF decision, which has shown to be a strong fundamental that affects greatly the price. Which way, that's the huge question.
I am a little bit underwater and will probably be setting a tight stop loss, since I'd rather leave money on the table after the ETF decision, than eat up a huge green candle that takes a chunk of my trading stash.
As for AT itself, after yesterdays shenanigans, We are still looking for any figure to form. Before going to sleep I drew the solid orange line to check if it could act and resistance and it did, and very well. The dotted orange line at the bottom of the triangle hasn't been tested since I drew it, so it might be off, but it would definitely make sense. For now, we found a smaller triangle which I also marked with a solid orange line. That one should be resolved in no more than 8 hours, but most it will likely sooner.
As all symmetrical triangles, it could go either way. If it goes down, I have to expect yesterdays battlefield at 6310 will still form some kind of support, below that who knows. I've been claiming for 6120 and then 5850 for a week, and bulls have shown me that they can do better. You also have to consider that ema9 has crossed sma20 on its way up (marked it with a green arrow), which is very bullish to me, but since we didn't dump enough after last time tose two crossed down, I do not expect it to have a huge impact.