timwest
Long

BTCUSD Monthly Upside Target 1032 before February

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
3676 23 56
Stop loss under the last consolidation from 629-605. 748 last.

The Bitcoin market has been moving in a rather orderly pattern over the past couple of years as it bursts from one level of trading to another before settling down for many months and then bursting to another level. The percentage range of the "settling down" or "consolidation" ranges has reduced quite a bit over time which is a sign that Bitcoin is maturing and building a following with more market participants. Volatility is the surest signs of both life but also of immaturity. For the long term, you can see very clearly that Bitcoin is "coming of age" and progressing by the very nature of its reduced percentage trading bands: You can see the times that I outline "inside months" in a green polygon on the chart.

I can also add that Bitcoin made its high back in June at 778.85 at this exchange Bitstamp , and that means the uptrend is not showing signs of strength. A strong trend will make new highs every 5 bars. So, it could very well be that Bitcoin is trading on a longer term time frame since it is still clearly trending up and the price is above the most recent consolidation area from 590-629 where it spent 4 months and then "range expanded up last month" to kick off another move up. "Range Expansion" is the market's purest way of showing dominance from one side of the market. Since September was 629-567 or a range of 52, once October is up more than 52, the market is in a "range expanded" condition. Also, once a market has range expansion, it must repeat that range expansion within 3 bars or else that trend has failed and a return to the mode over that time frame will most likely occur. So, the target from here is for a move to 1032 by the end of January and if it doesn't make it to 1032, sell short with a 1032 stop and target the mode down at 629-605.

That's the long and short of it.

See you in the Key Hidden Levels Chat Room.

Tim 8:13AM EST 11/17/2016 747.00 last

PS - I realize BITSTAMP isn't the dominant market, but I wanted to show continuity and use the chart I produced over a year ago that forecasted the rally of 100% from 240 to 480.
Comment: Range expansion month UP in December is a great sign that BTCUSD will reach the target and possibly a lot more.

Another "time at mode" signal that looks solid here.

Tim 1:28PM EST 12/23/2016
Trade closed: target reached: Target Reached 1048 last - and it happened a little ahead of time!

I'll review for other trades on shorter term time frames.

Either way - success!

Happy New Year.
Comment: Great RE-ENTRY chance right here at $800 on January 11, 2017 with news about an inquiry from China into the Bitcoin rally.

Shorts have pushed it back to a level of very strong support that I'm willing to re-enter against. Long term value buyers will most likely overcome short-term short-sellers and scared sellers.

1/11/2017 @ 7:25AM EST
Comment:
snapshot


Here's the chart of the market at $801 currently.

Risk $100 to make $250+ initial risk assessment.

I'll update if it drops to $700 and view the risks at that point.

At $950-$1000 I'd bank half or more of the short term profits and look to repurchase on any dips back to $800-$750, which is for a long time "long term value support"
Comment: Very nice rebound from the $800 level up over $860 and glad to see the drop to $750 held, as I suggested it would.

If any of you bought all the way down to $750, you are up nearly 18% in a week and I would suggest BANK profits on the lowest purchases to reserve for another test of $800 in the coming week. If we don't get that correction, then I would put those funds back to work.

Buying "AGAINST SUPPORT" is very low risk, and this is a strong return based on a VERY LOW RISK entry. 1/17/2017 12:10PM EST
Comment: $886 last
Comment: Bitcoin failed to follow through on a few bullish setups over the past few days. This means that BTC is in a defensive position here. I'm flat but will be watching for a small move down to get SHORT for a test of the recent lows. Stay tuned.

snapshot
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@timwest wow! superior and excellent work. Congrats!
+2 Reply
timwest PRO AndresThomasShirakawa
@AndresThomasShirakawa, Thank you! And glad it worked out too!
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Thank you. Great read as always! ;)
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timwest PRO ryopphdi
@ryopphdi, I'm glad you liked the explanations. Technical analysis makes sense when it is explained clearly.
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You're unbelievable!
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timwest PRO wrongplacerightime
@wrongplacerightime, Thank you!
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Congratulations!!! Fucking good job! What are your expectations for the coming months?
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@EthER13, Thanks for the comment. It's hard to leave a party when it is going strong and it is raging, but that what this method is suggesting to do. It's time to leave. I'll look for shorter-term trade setups perhaps from the daily charts that will give us a trade setup. For now, it's been a monster trade.
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@timwest,
Thank you for taking time to answer me.
Again, congratulations for your analysis of an extreme precision!
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Does this mean you believe it's topped out for a while?
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timwest PRO Vaggitarian
@Vaggitarian, I believe this is a good time to book profits. If you don't want to exit here, just raise stops up real close to the current price action so you can give it a chance to run even further. But it has reached the upside price forecast in the time frame suggested, so I think it is a decent time to ring the bell and just exit. Everyone has a different style and there is no right or wrong. Only profits or losses.

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Congrats! Nicely done. Looking forward to your other timeframe analyses.
+2 Reply
timwest PRO grahvity
@grahvity, I'll get around to it tomorrow. If you follow @IvanLabrie, he stays on top of Bitcoin using this method on many time frames.
+2 Reply
grahvity timwest
@timwest, thank you kindly
+1 Reply
Tim nailed it again ;)
+2 Reply
Tim.. you rock.
Surfing new all-time highs cant be tested into paper trading! What will you do? :D
Please keep us updated for new forecasting :)

Thanks!
+2 Reply
timwest PRO malotiin
@malotiin, The time expired yesterday on the 4-day "time at mode" on the rally. I pointed it out in our Key Hidden Levels Chat Room, but I didn't take a short. Thanks for the nice words!
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Thank god for you.
+1 Reply
Well done, thanks for the elaborate explanations.
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Great updates Tim. I indeed closed my lowest buys against the first big down day's low today. I am holding my other positions bought a tad higher and looking to use my profit to add again on dips.
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Hi Tim,
This time market went the other way though..
No problem because this is TA business :)

Can you predict some high resistance level with your time at mode/other for the current uptrend?

many thanks!
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timwest PRO malotiin
@malotiin, The Time@Mode method has continued to win big in Bitcoin this year. @IvanLabrie uses the methodology and is nailing many trades in his publications here @TradingView and in the Key Hidden Levels chatroom. The downtrend didn't materialize and turned into another upside move. I hope to point out another great trade. I'm still pretty proud of the initial trade I pointed out here in the original publication. Got the duration, and the magnitude of the move. Pretty good overall.
+2 Reply
@timwest, as good as it gets ;)
Tim's outlined levels are still valid, @malotiin, keep an eye on them for buys.
+1 Reply
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