Spent most of yesterday buying dips from around 14050 and higher, looking to increase on a break of the neckline of what
has turned out to be an imaginary reverse - and again on the break above another imaginary flag
formation which was then sitting at 15500 with a stop at least 100 points below the line. So we blew 150 or so points off the
top but at least managed to trap in bigger profits accumulated during the rest of a turgid, slow day of trading.
Not very good, but it could've been worse.
The pattern Bitcoin has made overnight has done nothing to improve the picture. The last comments had warned that
Bitcoin only turns again on a break below 14465.
Overnight it broke this level, fell through the next blue line of
support to the next line at 13571, bounced back to test the 14465 level from the underside, turning it into resistance as it
did so and is now falling away again...every move it's made overnight has been . If you were around to short on the
fall below 14465, lucky you
Now it's coming back to test the right hand 'shoulder' at
13560-13450 - Bitcoin must hold here - as this is the last real chance of support holding up and preventing another retest of
the lows. Therefore, should it fail to hold at any point today look to short on a break below 13450, looking for 12600 to
begin with and then after a potential bounce from here, look to short again from 13088 looking for a retest of the lows.
to retest the lows which must hold at all costs today.
Failure to do so will tip Bitcoin further into terrible technical trouble and likely force price all the way back to 10486 to
begin with and then to 8324.
It's beaking down now as this is written up...
Suggest closing out ALL longs on any Alt asap - we can buy back cheaper later.
It's sticking at 12600 and just under and there is more support at 12223 - (amended. blue line has been shifted a little). Don't want to trade here. Just keep powder and profits dry for now...if we see 12200 broken then look to short again back to lows - otherwise shorts should have been closed at 12600 and we await next signal
If only Bitcoin would shut down for 8 hours like everything else in the world then we wouldn't miss some amazing long and short opportunities...
Anyway, the flip side of the Bitcoin coin is that there's always another move on the horizon worth catching. So long as Bitcoin never stops moving - up or down - we have a chance of catching some of the moves, just not all.
So we a should be flat now (der, should've reversed at 12600 but that's easy to say now) and are looking to short again from higher levels - there are 3 levels of interest now: 13480, 13571 and then 13785, which is where the upper parallel of this extreme flag formation lies...that's quite a strong pin bar on the 1 hour chart so it could push to the highest level where swing traders can look to short with a stop 100 higher. For day-traders, can short from 13480 with stop 50 above - providing it looks to be sticking as it gets there. If not, watch how it behaves at 13571 and the same at 13785 which should be the limit of the rally, at least in the nearer term. (or on any touch of that small upper parallel that is containing the down-wave so far)
When it comes off it should fall away to 12223 minimum and, if this level gives way by more than 23 points or so (below 12200) back to the lows, which must hold at all costs today.
Failure to do so will tip Bitcoin even further into terrible technical trouble and likely force price all the way back to 10486 to
begin with and then to 8324.
And so if you are still short close out for small profit and we await the victors of this battle - and join them when we can see the winner...break below dynamic support and we short - and clear break with some volume (not a pathetic spike and fizzle) of the upper parallel of the flag to get long again. Use stops in your head - about 100 under the break/line to begin with
This has come back to test the lows - or more accurately the original clsoing point of the first short this morning...just hope all shorts were closed out bang on the blue line and if not a little higher...so a double bottom/higher low and then a 4th strike on the parallel (double clips close together count as one - at which point you know by now that the power of the parallel to repel on the 5th test is spent - and you also know to get long when that upper parallel is broken on a sucessful retest - which we have just seen - and so you will be long by now with stops under the parallel by 100 points or more for now. So you don't need a guide after all... if you folllowed the chart and not your heart then you are free.
Use the speed line under the lows on chart as an exit for longs so if it fails again we get out with a small profit. This is not easy in such low volume conditions...harder to trust than usual