If we look at the 4h chart we can see a large inverse head and shoulders forming on BTC. Looking at the Elliot waves, starting from the Feb. 6th dip, we could be finishing the long wave 3 and about to start wave 4 creating the right shoulder. Im guessing the dip could go as low as 9500-9600 which would be in line of the size of the left shoulder and seeing that it has proven itself to be a support in the past.
After the wave 4 correction we should see a climb to the 11200 resistance line which now intersects with the main downtrendline. If BTC manages to break this support during wave 5 we will see a run to 12500 in the short term.
Then probably an ABC correction possibly to backtest the neckline or even the downtrend line. The size of the inverse head was approximately 5-6k ranging from 6000-11000'ish. If BTC holds above the neckline at 11000 we could see a potential semi-long term run to 16000-17000.
These are just my own personal thoughts, meant for educational purposes and should not be seen as trading advice.
After the wave 4 correction we should see a climb to the 11200 resistance line which now intersects with the main downtrendline. If BTC manages to break this support during wave 5 we will see a run to 12500 in the short term.
Then probably an ABC correction possibly to backtest the neckline or even the downtrend line. The size of the inverse head was approximately 5-6k ranging from 6000-11000'ish. If BTC holds above the neckline at 11000 we could see a potential semi-long term run to 16000-17000.
These are just my own personal thoughts, meant for educational purposes and should not be seen as trading advice.
Comment:
Here is an updated 4h chart. I adjusted the neckline which now intersects with the downtrendline at 11750. Notice the golden cross on the EMA50/200 which is a definite bullish sign. So good news in the long run but at this moment i still see a dip short term.
Comment:
Although i was a bit sceptic myself when i posted this idea (BTC was very bullish at the time an many traders were already calling downtrendline broken) we can see that the second shoulder is in fact forming. How deep this shoulder will go is hard to predict but imo i think we will at least see 10200 and lower. Low end of the spectrum is probably 9000-9500k.
Be carefull thou, some traders are still bearish on BTC and a retrace all the way back to the lower main downtrendline is a possibility (althou i think its unlikely at this point but an upthrust sometimes indicates a possible retrace of the trading channel).
Stay vigilant and be on the look out of signs that the right shoulder isn't holding up or the any other sign that would negate the inverse head and shoulders pattern. Once we go back up and break the neckline we can start relaxing a bit more as potential upside is around 16-17k.
Be carefull thou, some traders are still bearish on BTC and a retrace all the way back to the lower main downtrendline is a possibility (althou i think its unlikely at this point but an upthrust sometimes indicates a possible retrace of the trading channel).
Stay vigilant and be on the look out of signs that the right shoulder isn't holding up or the any other sign that would negate the inverse head and shoulders pattern. Once we go back up and break the neckline we can start relaxing a bit more as potential upside is around 16-17k.
Comment:
Crucial point, BTC is around 10200 which could be a substantial support. This would give wave 4 approximately the same length as wave 2. Also wave 3 is made up of 5 subwaves which should have an ABC correction forming wave 4. Normally wave C ends within subwave 4 which also lies around 11300. So a couple of reasons why 10200 could be the low point for now.
Maybe my expectation of BTC going lower could be a bit too pessimistic but im hoping BTC will go lower as it will form a clearer right shoulder (10200 somehow seems too shallow).
If BTC does stop at 10200 and moves higher we could be looking at a short term bearish head and shoulders formation (marked on chart in red). The peak of the right shoulder would intersect with the main downtrend line, adding to the resistance. Ill be making a new idea if this event happen.
Maybe my expectation of BTC going lower could be a bit too pessimistic but im hoping BTC will go lower as it will form a clearer right shoulder (10200 somehow seems too shallow).
If BTC does stop at 10200 and moves higher we could be looking at a short term bearish head and shoulders formation (marked on chart in red). The peak of the right shoulder would intersect with the main downtrend line, adding to the resistance. Ill be making a new idea if this event happen.
Comment:
As a bonus the 1h chart with the wave 3/4 subwaves drawn on them in orange.
Comment:
BTC made a short stop at 10200 but it failed to form the bearish right shoulder (red on previous chart). Although its painfull to see BTC go down, the good news is that we are going low enough to see a proper bullish inverse right shoulder forming.
How deep BTC will go remains tricky... im thinking we will see reversal around 9600 but could go as deep as 9000. Going under 9000 would be pushing it and it will have to rethink this idea.
The EMA50 is still above the EMA200 which is a good sign, if BTC manages to turn back up this could indicate that we have entered a new bull market but at the moment it's still a big IF.
How deep BTC will go remains tricky... im thinking we will see reversal around 9600 but could go as deep as 9000. Going under 9000 would be pushing it and it will have to rethink this idea.
The EMA50 is still above the EMA200 which is a good sign, if BTC manages to turn back up this could indicate that we have entered a new bull market but at the moment it's still a big IF.
Comment:
Short update, BTC touched the 9500-9600 region and seems to be turning up at the moment (10k+). The MACD also seems to be bottoming out which is a good sign of short term reversal.
A likely scenario for the recovery is yet another inverse head and shoulders, marked in purple of my chart. The neckline is around 10800-11000.
Off course it's still early to be making any definitive calls but this seems to be a likely scenario in my opinion.
A likely scenario for the recovery is yet another inverse head and shoulders, marked in purple of my chart. The neckline is around 10800-11000.
Off course it's still early to be making any definitive calls but this seems to be a likely scenario in my opinion.
Comment:
Another bonus chart with elliot waves (for educational purposes). Green waves are the main waves and orange are the subwaves.
Wave 4 (green) : subwave correction ABC (orange) could be over and we could have already started wave 5.
Wave 5 : subwave 1 could go up to 10800-11000, subwave 2 takes us back down for inverse right shoulder and subwave 3 could be the big one taking us up and over the downtrend line. Small correction subwave 4 (retest of downtrendline?) and back up to wave 5 at around 12500-13000.
Wave 4 (green) : subwave correction ABC (orange) could be over and we could have already started wave 5.
Wave 5 : subwave 1 could go up to 10800-11000, subwave 2 takes us back down for inverse right shoulder and subwave 3 could be the big one taking us up and over the downtrend line. Small correction subwave 4 (retest of downtrendline?) and back up to wave 5 at around 12500-13000.
Comment:
Time for weekend, usually not the best time for BTC trading. The past two weekends, BTC took a dip causing wave 2 (in green on 10-11th feb) and subwave 4 (in orange on 17-18th feb) so we might see some more downside.
Personally i think this doesnt have to be a negative sign because it makes the inverse right shoulder more clear... if BTC manages to reverse back up next week. As long as BTC doesnt go under 9000 there is no need to worry, imo.
So enjoy the weekend, next week will be a big week and hopefully a good one.
Personally i think this doesnt have to be a negative sign because it makes the inverse right shoulder more clear... if BTC manages to reverse back up next week. As long as BTC doesnt go under 9000 there is no need to worry, imo.
So enjoy the weekend, next week will be a big week and hopefully a good one.
Comment:
i took a more bearish look at the chart and seems could go lower than 9000 without breaking the inverse head and shoulders formation. Strongest support, imo, lies at the neckline of the previous inverse head and shoulders (grey on the chart)... a support which hasnt been backtested yet. It also somewhat corresponds with the bottom of the left shoulder, adding to the support.
So the bad news is that BTC could go as low as 8500. This doesnt mean it has to happen this weekend or even at all but yeah, it can happen. For now, let's just wait and see...
So the bad news is that BTC could go as low as 8500. This doesnt mean it has to happen this weekend or even at all but yeah, it can happen. For now, let's just wait and see...
Comment:
As expected we are seeing some choppy action atm. On the positive side it seems BTC could be forming a bull flag (marked in orange) which will hopefully not good too deep.
If BTC manages to stay above 9500 and turn around back it we might be looking at a short term double bottom, ready to turn back up to 11000 and higher.
But like i already said, weekend is a though time to make predictions. BTC could turn around any moment but i can also keep bleeding for a while longer. In the long run im still bullish but if BTC goes as deep as 8500 or lower, we might be in trouble and have to reasses our position.
If BTC manages to stay above 9500 and turn around back it we might be looking at a short term double bottom, ready to turn back up to 11000 and higher.
But like i already said, weekend is a though time to make predictions. BTC could turn around any moment but i can also keep bleeding for a while longer. In the long run im still bullish but if BTC goes as deep as 8500 or lower, we might be in trouble and have to reasses our position.
Comment:
Weekend is almost over and BTC did ok so far. As expected we did make a new low but the real action will start tomorrow when there is more volume.
Hopefylly BTC will find support above the 0.236 fib retracement line at 9250. If BTC does go lower it could likely go all the way to 8500 to test the nechline of the previous invers head and shoulders (in grey on chart). If 8500 doesnt hold we could be looking at a new mayor retrace which could go all the way to 6000 and lower.
But there are also bullish signs, BTC is starting to break the bull flag channel and it made a short term double bottom around 9300. The MACD also shows room for an upward turn.
It's a pretty tough call atm, im hoping to see some signs in a couple of hours when the asian markets open. The real test usually starts when the european markets come into action.
Hopefylly BTC will find support above the 0.236 fib retracement line at 9250. If BTC does go lower it could likely go all the way to 8500 to test the nechline of the previous invers head and shoulders (in grey on chart). If 8500 doesnt hold we could be looking at a new mayor retrace which could go all the way to 6000 and lower.
But there are also bullish signs, BTC is starting to break the bull flag channel and it made a short term double bottom around 9300. The MACD also shows room for an upward turn.
It's a pretty tough call atm, im hoping to see some signs in a couple of hours when the asian markets open. The real test usually starts when the european markets come into action.
Comment:
At the moment there arent any clear signs yet (due to lack of volume). On the bullish side, BTC is forming a descending wedge and the MACD is turning up.
On the bearish side it seems like BTC is still fragile, a large sudden dump could cause it to break below 9250 which could lead BTC all the way down to 8500. So the 9250 support seems crucial right now.
Short term i want to see BTC breaking the 9800 resistance (finalising a mini short term inverse head and shoulders), followed by a run to 10400. If we see these signs, we could be looking at a recovery but at this point, BTC could still turn either way.
On the bearish side it seems like BTC is still fragile, a large sudden dump could cause it to break below 9250 which could lead BTC all the way down to 8500. So the 9250 support seems crucial right now.
Short term i want to see BTC breaking the 9800 resistance (finalising a mini short term inverse head and shoulders), followed by a run to 10400. If we see these signs, we could be looking at a recovery but at this point, BTC could still turn either way.
Comment:
Some early positive signs, BTC is climbing higher after breaking above the descending wedge. If it makes it to 10400 i wouldnt be surprised if we see a little pullback to 9600, forming an inverse head and shoulders (pink on chart) and testing the descending wedge as support.
A bit too early but things seem to be evolving in a positive way for now.
A bit too early but things seem to be evolving in a positive way for now.
Comment:
BTC is making good progress on its recovery. ATM we are already at the downtrend line, which we expect to be tough resistance. We could see BTC make a small pullback (to around 10400 testing the neckline as support) before breaking this resistance.
IMO we could be breaking the resistance without a mayor pullback. If we look at the Elliot waves, we are pretty certain that wave 4 is over (making an ABCDE correction) and we have started a new 5-subwave up (forming wave 5). Im thinking we could be seeing subwave 3 forming atm (as drawn on the chart) with a small hickup in the middle around downtrend line.
Either way, there is still room to go up so but will it be enough to break such an important resistance?
All in all, positive signs for BTC with a little luck we'll see BTC finally breaking the mayor downtrend line and making a run to at least 11200 (and probably higher).
IMO we could be breaking the resistance without a mayor pullback. If we look at the Elliot waves, we are pretty certain that wave 4 is over (making an ABCDE correction) and we have started a new 5-subwave up (forming wave 5). Im thinking we could be seeing subwave 3 forming atm (as drawn on the chart) with a small hickup in the middle around downtrend line.
Either way, there is still room to go up so but will it be enough to break such an important resistance?
All in all, positive signs for BTC with a little luck we'll see BTC finally breaking the mayor downtrend line and making a run to at least 11200 (and probably higher).
Comment:
Not much to say atm, BTC made a good attempt at breaking the downtrend line but failed. As expected we see a small pullback which already reached 10400. We might go a little lower but im expecting BTC to stay above 10200'ish (10000 should hold IMO).
Looking at it from an Elliot wave point of view im thinking its possible that i was a bit too soon saying subwave 3 (in yellow) had already started. We didnt see a real pullback on the 4h chart till now, only sideways action, so possibly we are now forming subwave 2, preparing for subwave 3 which will take us above the downtrendline.
Looking at the MACD we can also see that there we are in a pullback fase but if BTC stays above 10000 this will build enough momentum to take us above the donwtrend line. EMA50 is almost crossing EMA200 again which is also a good sign of recovery.
Possibly another inverse shoulder forming before the big run to 11200+.
Looking at it from an Elliot wave point of view im thinking its possible that i was a bit too soon saying subwave 3 (in yellow) had already started. We didnt see a real pullback on the 4h chart till now, only sideways action, so possibly we are now forming subwave 2, preparing for subwave 3 which will take us above the downtrendline.
Looking at the MACD we can also see that there we are in a pullback fase but if BTC stays above 10000 this will build enough momentum to take us above the donwtrend line. EMA50 is almost crossing EMA200 again which is also a good sign of recovery.
Possibly another inverse shoulder forming before the big run to 11200+.
Comment:
So far so good. BTC made a dip to 10200 (as predicted) and is now climbing back up. Im sticking to my least assumption that we are now starting subwave 3 up (in yellow).
Today i used a logaritmic chart instead of a linear one. With BTC being as volatile as it is, it's sometimes better to use a logaritmic chart when looking at long term trends (like the mayor downtrend line, which is already somewhat broken on linear chart). On a log chart we can see that the downtrendline hasnt been broken yet as it sits around 12000.
The EMA50 has crossed the EMA200 again which is a good sign. The MACD has also turned up.
Im hoping to see a good day with BTC making a climb to 12000 breaking the neckline but stopping at the log downtrend line.
Today i used a logaritmic chart instead of a linear one. With BTC being as volatile as it is, it's sometimes better to use a logaritmic chart when looking at long term trends (like the mayor downtrend line, which is already somewhat broken on linear chart). On a log chart we can see that the downtrendline hasnt been broken yet as it sits around 12000.
The EMA50 has crossed the EMA200 again which is a good sign. The MACD has also turned up.
Im hoping to see a good day with BTC making a climb to 12000 breaking the neckline but stopping at the log downtrend line.
Comment:
It's been quite a while since i posted. We had conformation of the inverse head and shoulders but BTC touched the logarithmic downward trendline and was unable to break through it.
At the moment we are in correction subwave 4 (in yellow) of wave 5. As long as we stay above 10200-10400 i am not too worried but if this level should break, BTC could move a lot lower. But lets stay possitive and have good hopes till we reach that level.
The EMA50 is still above the EMA200 which is a good sign. The MACD has made a nice correction and is ready to turn back up. All in all, we could just be looking at an extra correction to gather enough steam to break through the downtrend line.
If we do break lower than 10200-10000. It is not unlikely that BTC will go as deep as 9500 (about same depth as the inverse shoulder) or after that as low as 8500. Beyond that we see a retrace all the way back to 6000 for a double bottom or even lower. But for now we could just be looking at a final correction, the bears final defence, before taking down the downtred line.
At the moment we are in correction subwave 4 (in yellow) of wave 5. As long as we stay above 10200-10400 i am not too worried but if this level should break, BTC could move a lot lower. But lets stay possitive and have good hopes till we reach that level.
The EMA50 is still above the EMA200 which is a good sign. The MACD has made a nice correction and is ready to turn back up. All in all, we could just be looking at an extra correction to gather enough steam to break through the downtrend line.
If we do break lower than 10200-10000. It is not unlikely that BTC will go as deep as 9500 (about same depth as the inverse shoulder) or after that as low as 8500. Beyond that we see a retrace all the way back to 6000 for a double bottom or even lower. But for now we could just be looking at a final correction, the bears final defence, before taking down the downtred line.
Comment:
My last update seems to have been too positive and yesterday's sudden dump made me have to rethink my idea and Elliot wave count. Although it's a rare phenomenon it seems we could have had a truncated 5th wave (peak of wave 5 at same or lower level then peak of wave 3). This weeks dip then has to be corrective wave ABC. ATM im thinking we are at wave B with an short term upside target of 10400 but wave C will probably take us all the way down to 8000-9000 range. From an elliot wave point of you i would expect BTC to the end of wave C would stay in the range of wave 4 (low point around 9200) but because BTC has already touched below 9400 yesterday im a little bit more bearish.
Im guessing it all depends on how high wave B will go. It might go higher than 10400 if yesterday's dip was artificially low because of all the Binance FUD (and posibly manipulation from the hacked bots?).
If BTC manages to find support at this level and start an new 5-wave up cycle this idea might still be in effect with an extra inverse shoulder before lift-off.
If 8000-9000 doesnt hold, it's uncertain how deep BTC can go but we could see a double bottom at 6000 or even lower.
Im guessing it all depends on how high wave B will go. It might go higher than 10400 if yesterday's dip was artificially low because of all the Binance FUD (and posibly manipulation from the hacked bots?).
If BTC manages to find support at this level and start an new 5-wave up cycle this idea might still be in effect with an extra inverse shoulder before lift-off.
If 8000-9000 doesnt hold, it's uncertain how deep BTC can go but we could see a double bottom at 6000 or even lower.
Imo, btc will fail to break it forming a double top before trailling lower, an upthrust might be possible. Personally i think btc will retrace to sub 10k before forming the right shoulder and wave 4 correction.
If btc does brake the resistance it will go higher and negate this idea.