Potential Bullish impulse upwards, to $11,700 - Timeframe 12d

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hey guys, I'd like to present a potential bullish idea for BTC for the next two weeks. You can find a summary below:

4hr timeframe - potential TK cross recross above the cloud here, the strongest bullish TK signal out there and worth definitely keeping an eye out for.

This will allow us to break through the current resistance trendline and re-test the 0.618 fib level.

Pairing this up with Fib timezones, you can see it lines up nicely with the cloud future. I have a suspicion that we may retrace a little bit until the next fib timezone in approximately 12 days time, where at this point we will find a bullish impulse to complete the edge-to-edge trade on the daily timefame.

Daily timeframe - Potential bullish TK cross inbound within the cloud, the bullish TK cross recross on the 4hr timeframe could act as a catalyst for this.

2d timeframe - the next fib timezone level matches up with the Kumo twist within the 2d timeframe, potentially offering us an access point to close above the cloud.
Trade active: See updates below!
Comment: Following from the latest comment below (please read for previous analysis) I we've managed to close above the resistance trendline which is now acting as support, I would expect the move to continue and begin to form the bullish TK recross.

Trade active: We're fast approaching the 0.618 fib level, we'll need to keep an eye out here for a likely retracement and to re-test the support.

Trade active: Expecting a small retracement here, I've sold my position and am looking to re-buy around the 9500 mark, in line with the 30min Tenkan / 15min Kijun zone.

Trade active: Still waiting for BTC to retrace, have buy orders set up at 9510. Also noticed a potential C Clamp, re-enforcing the retracement idea.

Trade active: Took a re-entry and a slightly higher price just to be safe. We're currently looking to test the 10k mark again. If we fail we should find support at the 0.618 level.


Looking more long-term, I would expect us to complete the edge-to-edge around the 14th May, potentially with a large move up if we are successful - bearing in mind that the 14th is the 1.382 fib time level. I'm expecting some exciting things to happen around this period either way.

1d timeframe
Trade closed manually: Hey all, another quick update. I ended up closing my re-entry position about break even, owing to BTC struggling to break the 10k barrier. I estimate that BTC will now continue on with my original idea, with sideways movement or a slight retrace (9k approx lowest to remain valid) until the next fib timezone on the 14th.

This should give us time to consolidate and regain momentum for another push upward.

If I'm completely honest with you, I hadn't anticipated the bullish TK cross above the cloud and the resulting momentum so late - (I had been anticipating resistance at the 0.618 fib level and not 10k) As a result, took a nominal loss on a FOMO trade the past few days with a break even on my re-entry.

I think we've retraced a decent amount and are approaching the 50% retracement zone from the break of the symmetrical triangle on the 4hr chart (orange fib levels).

I wouldn't expect us to drop lower than the 0.382 fib retracement for the mini-move (breakout from symmetrical triangle/orange fib levels) as it forms a nice fib cluster with the 0.5 level of our main fib retracement (blue).

I'm placing buy orders around the 9100 region to look for a re-entry with a tight stoploss.
Trade closed manually: Just moved the mini-move fib levels slightly to form from the break of the symmetrical triangle breakout and have the following:

I'm going with 9135 for a buy target.


So it looks like the bulls won and my buy order didn't get filled! I'm now looking for price to close above the previous high/resistance and will buy back in at a slightly higher price. Happy to take a slightly worse price and play it safe.

And the hourly, currently meeting some resistance.

The move has begun, we need to see the candle close above the trendline on the 30min chart for confirmation.

It looks like the crucial Kijun support has been putting in some work and managed to hold, with a potential breakout to the upside incoming. Keep an eye out for that bullish TK recross on the 240!

The Kijun could be about to fail us here and potentially stop the recross from producing, if it does fail we will need to keep a close eye on the Tenkan to see if we can muster support at that level.

Morning guys, it looks like the Kijun support has held overnight but we have a couple of indecision candles on the 4hr timeframe, I think we may go sideways for a little bit - however I would keep a close eye on the Kijun support along with the potential incoming bullish TK cross if we start to see bullish activity from Europe (and vice-versa for bearish).

Apologies - messed the timings up slightly for the 4hr Kumo future but you get the idea! (It's midnight here) :)
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