As with any use of historical data, this is not indicative of the future. While something has occurred in the past, it is not guaranteed to repeat in the future. That being said, more often than not it does rhyme. These charts are the visual representation of human psychology.
Usually, I would look at these comparisons and doubt the significance it would have in two completely different markets and time in history. The reason in this particular circumstance I am more open to the possibility is because it fits my Macro views so well. While this BTC move on a surface level looks bullish, there are many creeping factors going to be moving in as we head into March.
The first thing I would like to point out is BTC's favorite time of the month to Pump (End of Month). Here is a chart showing 11 different times BTC has pumped at the end of the month since October 2020. Most notably a few days ago as we were heading into March.
The next important thing to note is the Bearish divergences building up on BTC on HTF's. Here is an example on the Weekly,
Here is the Daily chart showing a very similar story,
Moving on to another important thing to consider is the significant break from BTC/NASDAQ since this last pump. In fact, NASDAQ is down roughly 2.5% while BTC has sprung up 30%. As you can see by the chart this divergence doesn't happen often, if at all, and something is clearly moving BTC here. It is possible BTC has seen a huge inflow of Russian capital injected as their markets tank from the war. If this is the case, sustainability would be a more important factor going forward for me personally.
This is one of the last things I'll leave off on considering this is much more of a speculative prediction and is only valid if the Macro environment stays similar to where it stands today. Fed tightening will have to stay intact and they will have to follow through with their initial stance of hiking rates. The economy slowing down after the 2020 run-up. War will stay on its course without any abrupt ending. And the cycle in the stock market will have to transition as I'm predicting going into the rest of 2022. Nonetheless, this is something to consider carefully. This month (March) is when FED is expected to make their first rate adjustment.
Further pushing my conviction for cycle changes is shown by this $AAPL chart here that has followed TA almost perfectly so far. This likely will be a very important chart going into the rest of 2022.
As always, most of my posts correlate with one another and I use the same Ideas as a confluence for future ones. This is why checking out my previous analysis on both Bitcoin and NASDAQ can bring more insight into why I have the convictions I do. It also may allow you to connect dots you previously have missed. Here they are for reference,
In any case, If you found this analysis helpful in any way please leave your thoughts down below. This post is not meant to sway anyone in one way or the other, it is only meant to expand knowledge and possible perspectives. Seeing things from all perspectives not only gives you the ability to control Confirmation Bias but allows you to see the bigger picture when so many only see the small one. My posts are meant to engage thought, rather than always tell you "Up Only".
If you've made it this far, thank you so much, and I wish everyone the best as we head into a likely chaotic 2022.
Usually, I would look at these comparisons and doubt the significance it would have in two completely different markets and time in history. The reason in this particular circumstance I am more open to the possibility is because it fits my Macro views so well. While this BTC move on a surface level looks bullish, there are many creeping factors going to be moving in as we head into March.
The first thing I would like to point out is BTC's favorite time of the month to Pump (End of Month). Here is a chart showing 11 different times BTC has pumped at the end of the month since October 2020. Most notably a few days ago as we were heading into March.
The next important thing to note is the Bearish divergences building up on BTC on HTF's. Here is an example on the Weekly,
Moving on to another important thing to consider is the significant break from BTC/NASDAQ since this last pump. In fact, NASDAQ is down roughly 2.5% while BTC has sprung up 30%. As you can see by the chart this divergence doesn't happen often, if at all, and something is clearly moving BTC here. It is possible BTC has seen a huge inflow of Russian capital injected as their markets tank from the war. If this is the case, sustainability would be a more important factor going forward for me personally.
This is one of the last things I'll leave off on considering this is much more of a speculative prediction and is only valid if the Macro environment stays similar to where it stands today. Fed tightening will have to stay intact and they will have to follow through with their initial stance of hiking rates. The economy slowing down after the 2020 run-up. War will stay on its course without any abrupt ending. And the cycle in the stock market will have to transition as I'm predicting going into the rest of 2022. Nonetheless, this is something to consider carefully. This month (March) is when FED is expected to make their first rate adjustment.
Further pushing my conviction for cycle changes is shown by this $AAPL chart here that has followed TA almost perfectly so far. This likely will be a very important chart going into the rest of 2022.
As always, most of my posts correlate with one another and I use the same Ideas as a confluence for future ones. This is why checking out my previous analysis on both Bitcoin and NASDAQ can bring more insight into why I have the convictions I do. It also may allow you to connect dots you previously have missed. Here they are for reference,
In any case, If you found this analysis helpful in any way please leave your thoughts down below. This post is not meant to sway anyone in one way or the other, it is only meant to expand knowledge and possible perspectives. Seeing things from all perspectives not only gives you the ability to control Confirmation Bias but allows you to see the bigger picture when so many only see the small one. My posts are meant to engage thought, rather than always tell you "Up Only".
If you've made it this far, thank you so much, and I wish everyone the best as we head into a likely chaotic 2022.
Comment:
One other thing I would like to point out is the BTC/SPX chart which represents BTC's value or momentum in comparison to other assets. As we see there has been a clear break under this line which has only happened once because of the Covid Crash. Now here it is again but without a true reason other than this was where the momentum was taking the market. As I've expressed and shown many examples of, despite short-term price movements from BTC, there are many signs BTC is losing momentum longer term. The chart is a literal visual representation of this,
Comment:
If anyone is interested, I have pushed out a Macro Altcoin analysis of where I think the Alt market potentially is headed and explained a few insights on BTC Domanince and ETH/BTC ratio. Useful information going forward into 2022. As always, I thank everyone for the support and most of all, your time.
Comment:
With the Macro environment as it is with a weakening economy even when rates are at 0, the FED is going to find itself in a very tough spot. Pair this with the ongoing war, a threat to Taiwan by China, possible Global Recession, High Inflation, Energy prices soaring (which is possibly the most important thing to take note of here), all of this ends in the same way most likely.
I think the chances of a recession have multiplied at this point and I'd wager the FED is fully aware of this. They could potentially pivot here and instead of letting it happen, they may want to cause the recession to give themselves breathing room to work with. As odd as it sounds. Since a recession comes both ways.
It is more logical to Raise Rates + Taper as you don't want a recession hitting (which it is) with Rates at 0 and QE. And they cant lower rates at 0 or even worse inject more money.
The FED causing the recession has happened before in the 1980s when the FED was headed by Volcker. Just recently Powell was asked, "Are you prepared to do what it takes to get inflation under control?" to which Powell responded, "I hope history will record that the answer to your question is Yes".
I think the chances of a recession have multiplied at this point and I'd wager the FED is fully aware of this. They could potentially pivot here and instead of letting it happen, they may want to cause the recession to give themselves breathing room to work with. As odd as it sounds. Since a recession comes both ways.
It is more logical to Raise Rates + Taper as you don't want a recession hitting (which it is) with Rates at 0 and QE. And they cant lower rates at 0 or even worse inject more money.
The FED causing the recession has happened before in the 1980s when the FED was headed by Volcker. Just recently Powell was asked, "Are you prepared to do what it takes to get inflation under control?" to which Powell responded, "I hope history will record that the answer to your question is Yes".
Comment:
Here is a perfect example of why Energy Prices soaring is very dangerous for the broader economy. And the Ongoing war in Ukraine against Russia and the threat of limiting Oil imports from Russia will keep these prices soaring for the foreseeable future.
Each time there has been a significant deviation from the trend paired with high Oil prices, it has triggered a Recession. This has happened 6 times since 1970. I can only show 3 examples here because of chart limitations. We could be faced with the 7th time as the recipe for this to happen seems to be stellar at the moment.
Each time there has been a significant deviation from the trend paired with high Oil prices, it has triggered a Recession. This has happened 6 times since 1970. I can only show 3 examples here because of chart limitations. We could be faced with the 7th time as the recipe for this to happen seems to be stellar at the moment.