As you can see the price has clearly retested a 13-year-old channel it has formed all the way back in 2009. If the macro landscape were in better shape than it is currently, I would consider this to be very bullish. That being said I do believe this will only be a short to mid-term support zone from here. In fact, once there is a breakdown back into this channel, it will most certainly be when FED steps in and actually takes action.
The reason why I am hard-pressed to believe they won't hike rates and QE is for the simple fact that there is actually so much room before any true despair or "crash".
Take this chart, for example, We can still see another 20% drawdown without ever breaking the market structure. Not only does this prove to me how truly overextended the market is but more importantly, how much room the FED has to work with barring any unforeseen factors after their first rate hike. The argument currently is the FED doesn't need to step in or they "can't" without crashing the market. As this chart suggests, this is not true.
Another thing I am keeping an eye on is this chart here, it has followed TA almost perfectly so far. Can't emphasize the possible importance of this $AAPL chart enough.
Here is one last example of signs the market is extended, this is the S&P 500 which is clearly showing repeat patterns and Bearish Divergence in the RSI. Price going up and RSI is going down. Long term this will play out 100% of the time.
In a geopolitical climate such as today, the future is very uncertain. Steps need to be taken to manage risk and have a plan for possible outcomes. We are in a social climate that is constantly trying to find anything bullish in order to be one step ahead of the market. This frame of thinking only works in a Bull Market, because you were never truly ahead of the market, you just happen to jump on the wave as it was flowing by. There is a key difference here. While we do keep seeing bounce after bounce, most notable from (Bitcoin BTC) today with an 11% pump, these supports will only hold for so long.
Simply put, this economic and geopolitical climate simply can't be a time for a risk-on environment from my perspective and if someone sees a different story I am more than open to hearing their thoughts below;
Thank you for checking out the analysis, your time and input are very appreciated!
The reason why I am hard-pressed to believe they won't hike rates and QE is for the simple fact that there is actually so much room before any true despair or "crash".
Take this chart, for example, We can still see another 20% drawdown without ever breaking the market structure. Not only does this prove to me how truly overextended the market is but more importantly, how much room the FED has to work with barring any unforeseen factors after their first rate hike. The argument currently is the FED doesn't need to step in or they "can't" without crashing the market. As this chart suggests, this is not true.
Another thing I am keeping an eye on is this chart here, it has followed TA almost perfectly so far. Can't emphasize the possible importance of this $AAPL chart enough.
Here is one last example of signs the market is extended, this is the S&P 500 which is clearly showing repeat patterns and Bearish Divergence in the RSI. Price going up and RSI is going down. Long term this will play out 100% of the time.
In a geopolitical climate such as today, the future is very uncertain. Steps need to be taken to manage risk and have a plan for possible outcomes. We are in a social climate that is constantly trying to find anything bullish in order to be one step ahead of the market. This frame of thinking only works in a Bull Market, because you were never truly ahead of the market, you just happen to jump on the wave as it was flowing by. There is a key difference here. While we do keep seeing bounce after bounce, most notable from (Bitcoin BTC) today with an 11% pump, these supports will only hold for so long.
Simply put, this economic and geopolitical climate simply can't be a time for a risk-on environment from my perspective and if someone sees a different story I am more than open to hearing their thoughts below;
Thank you for checking out the analysis, your time and input are very appreciated!