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Bearish Bat Harmonic and Possible Elliott Wave Count for Bitcoin

OKCOIN:BTCUSD1W   Bitcoin / Dollar Forward 1 Week
a year ago
This bat appears on multiple exchanges and is accompanied by both regular and hidden bearish divergences from the 1m chart all the way up to the 1D chart. We are also starting to form a bearish divergent bar on the 4H chart and could possibly form one on the 1D before the close today.

I believe that this is Wave-a of a flat because it has retraced further than 61.8% of what I believe to be wave-1. This, along with the fact that it is very short time-wise compared to wave-1, would imply that wave-2 is not yet completed and that the most likely pattern it is in is a flat, which we just completed Wave-a of. There is another distinct possibility which is that we are in an expanding triangle and that the bull-trend could continue until we break the previous high around 300, however, based on the monthly chart, I think that that is rather unlikely because the monthly chart is in what appears to be a double zigzag, like my previously published chart predicts, so an expanding triangle wouldn't make very much sense here.

Either way this is an excellent risk/reward short. Bullish sentiment is extremely high which is generally a good indication of exuberance, especially since there is a lack of accompanying bullish signals and/or long-term elliott wave counts. Either way I would proceed with caution and only trade with an amount of money you feel comfortable losing, otherwise, panic and fear will set in and you will be more prone to making mistakes.

The target for Wave-b has many possibilities (see the huge green box). It is best to wait for this to start diverging on the lower-timeframes before taking profit and riding Wave-c to the top.

Good luck and happy trading!
Scamcoins
a year ago
Comment: http://scamco.in/2015/10/24/possible-major-reversal-incoming-for-bitcoin/
a year ago
Trade closed: stop reached: Stops reached, could keep going up from here.
a year ago
Comment: "There is another distinct possibility that we are in an expanding triangle..."
Looking further into my previously dismissed intuition It does now seem like we are in an expanding triangle. It appears to be of the Limiting-Running variety. I still need to make more confirmations before publishing this as a stand-alone chart, but it does seem like we have reached the bottom if this chart is right. We will get another wave (c) down into the 200s again, but I no longer believe that we are going to make any new lows below that if this chart can be confirmed.

snapshot
a year ago
Comment: So I have found a pattern that may actually fit better than the C-failure Flat: The Terminal Impulse Wave-C.

However, I am not yet removing the c-failure as a possibility, for now putting it on the back-burner and putting my attention towards this terminal impulse unless I can find a rule that invalidates it. It will be relatively impossible to predict whether or not this will be a 3rd wave or 5th wave extension but on this chart it is drawn as an ideal 5th wave extension configuration.

During this type of correction it is prudent to wait until it is complete before taking a definite long-term position, however, unless I can come up with another possibility I think that these are the only two remaining, with a heavy emphasis on the Terminal Impulse being the dominant pattern. We'll know which one is right in the coming months. If we break the high around 300 on this run then we will know the terminal is invalid, and it will probably be best to fall back to the c-failure flat and keep looking for other counts.

snapshot
a year ago
Comment: If this count is right, we are almost definitely in a Terminal Impulsive Wave c like I just said above.

The timing on this chart is perfect, wait until tomorrow night to see if the pattern completes like expected, if it does, SHORT.

snapshot
a year ago
Comment: Played out Exactly like expected. This could be the top.
a year ago
Comment:
snapshot
rivet.popper
a year ago
How are you feeling about LTC? Will it follow?
Reply
Intuit PRO rivet.popper
a year ago
I am still trying to determine that. It does appear that LTC could follow but I don't have very much hard-analysis that confirms it yet. Between now and February I believe anything could happen, but once February rolls around and the real bubble begins on BTC, I think that LTC will most likely follow at that point. With where LTC is at right now, I would watch for a breakout in either direction to determine which way the trend is going. LTCBTC already broke down so its possible LTCUSD follows, however if LTCBTC can stop around these prices it would leave a pretty nice divergence that could send LTC up and BTC down/sideways.
+1 Reply
rivet.popper Intuit
a year ago
I think LTCBTC broke down only because BTC went up while LTC stayed flat. I agree that since LTC almost always follows BTC eventually, we will see an uptrend in LTC. Why February for the "real bubble"?
Reply
Intuit PRO rivet.popper
a year ago
Check the updates I just made. The bubble probably won't be starting in Feburary. May or June seem more likely at this point. It has to do mostly with time-fibs and waves.

Based on the lower time-frame it looks like we are nearing the very top of this wave (Wave 2 of the Terminal impulse), which means we should start dropping very soon. I wholly expect LTC to follow btc into the depths of hell, however, I think that BTC will be the more profitable short, looking at LTCBTC I think that LTC is going to drop alot slower than BTC so LTCBTC should get a nice bounce like it looks like it might. This should be confirmed hopefully by tonight or tomorrow night.
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ambition1
a year ago
Even exceeded 300 also bearish?
Reply
Intuit PRO ambition1
a year ago
If we break 320 we will probably go to atleast 360-380 before any significant retracement per the Expanding Horizontal Triangle count, however, momentum in this range seems pretty bearish and my count is still right on the 6H chart for now, so, there is a good chance that we top out here per the Terminal Impulse Count.
Reply
Intuit PRO Intuit
a year ago
Maybe not right here but within this range.
Reply
ambition1
a year ago
snapshot
This picture is very beautiful, but time is too long…… do you still think it is a bear market?
Reply
Intuit PRO ambition1
a year ago
I do not, but I don't know what the higher count is and probably won't until it is completed. There were some problems with that count but I suppose that it could still be possible. I am just scalping shorter term charts now until I can find a good long term position.
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