Hello guys, taking a look at longs charts I saw an interesting conformation of the graph that confirms our Medium term LONG view on our beloved Bitcoin .

Let's see why, but first let me answer a question that you guys may have.

Why aren't we looking at the shorts graph?

Because shorts are typically non that indicative to guide us throught a trend as short position can be only held with leverage, hence by definition are kept for small period of time and can increase a lot for small retracements: this would not necessarily mean we would be in a bearish trend . A different reasoning was for the DEC17-MAR19 period, but now a completely different phase began. Also, it is dangerous to compare absolute values we see now with the ones we saw back then, as there was a different number of market participants and awareness about bitcoin: now we are in a more mature phase. This helds for both Longs and Shorts graphs. We can see that NOW the area between 25k to 30k BTC LONGS is the edge between the BULL and the BEAR phase now, but those values were different 1-2 years ago.
It is fundamental for a trader not to stick but to the past too much, or better, to blindly rely on the past, but to analyse it and be able to adapt and discern different market conditions. Always use your brain!
In order not to complicare things too much, we can say that in general, longs chart is more indicative of the phase we are in now.

So, let's go back to the chart finally.

We see 3 triangles, lets start with 2: a big symmetrical one and the smaller red ascending triangle . Both of them were broken to the upside in November 19, 6 months before the halving, meaning that Buyers/Holders finally decided to increase their position or reenter for the longer terms. Longs reached never-experienced before highs (again, this is not that meaningful as there are more bitcoin around and more people willing to get in before the halving occurs, in an anticipation of what will happen in following months). The growth path suggests this has been a real accumulation phase, where probably the entry price was not that important to them: they just do not want to miss the train.

Since November 19 we have been experiencing an unusual volatile scenario in longs, BUT tops and lows from then are perfectly forming another ASCENDING triangle , suggesting that we will probably broke it to the upside soon. We are exactly on the ascending trendline/hypotenuse of the triangle. Also, the lows perfectly bounced on the 30k level, which is now the level that shows us we are in a BULLISH trend . Also, that level fits with the base of the red ascending triangle , suggesting that the retest of the breakout was successful.


Despite the volumes data, which are not exciting (euphemism, but I already explained how it is unusual to see the start of a bull run in ANY market to be accompanied by high volumes), I think that LONGS chart, DOMINANCE chart and PRICE chart of bitcoin are telling us the same thing: time to accumulate!
Order cancelled: Covid-19 explosion worldwide interfered with the halving and canceled all the path that brought us and bitco to this point. Bitco experienced -20% in a signle day as many longs, most of them leveraged, got margin called and created a snowball effect. Who knows what would have happened to BTC without Covid-19, but this is the new reality now. I expect few weeks like this now, but read my other ideas as I found another indicator that can tell us when the next run can start!


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