Well we are still in the 28k zone which should tell us something right?
If you turn your TV on or listen to social media pundits they would have us all believe the sky is falling on our heads, complete with radiation.
So why hasn’t BTC tanked?
I mean if its really as fragile as it has been behaving the last 15 months then surely we should be in the bin by now.
Well I have been looking into it a bit because of a couple things.
1. The longer you stay in a range the stronger it becomes. The more you accumulate in that area, the weaker the resistance gets above you. So the longer we hold out in the 28k zone the more likely the break to the upside becomes.
2. Since Alameda Research got taken out as a MM we have had a lot of smaller MMs in the space, so the ability of just one to rek the charts is a lot less. Also, the patters that the Alameda Algo was using are different to these ones, we are conforming more to regular manipulation in other words.
So … Wyckoff Accumulation/Distributions patterns?
Sitting at the top of a move is usually a Distribution pattern as the MM takes profits by selling to eager retail shrimps, only to tank the price when they are done.
Similarly when we are at the bottom you can see deliberate moves to prevent price tanking further, or moving higher until the trap is ready and we spring out quickly. Remember January?
But when the expansive move is done we just hover there seemingly. Most think this is a Distribution phase and would normally be right …
but we didnt tank… I mean I expected a move to 20,500 and we got 19,500 - but it was a pullback that propelled us up to 28k…. and thats where we have been.
Lots of people expecting THIS to be the Distribution and then dump back to 25k… 20k… 18k… 10k…the bears die hard.
But there is a less known Wyckoff pattern called the Reaccumulation, which is a pause along the way to a higher and longer bull run.
Others call it Rally, Base, Rally or choose your own terms but this pic is my attempt to see if it fits where we are now.
In short…
We have run up to the first Preliminary Supply at 27,600 setting in a new range, then continuing to the Buying Climax.
BCLX results in rejection back to test the bottom of the new range, which triggers an Automatic Reaction. This has to be strong and send price all the way back to the BCLX to retest it. We did that.
Price then moves to the mid point of the range to find Support (5) before yet again pushing lower to retest the support and take liquidity, resulting in a Spring and Test before moving up to again retest the high in a sharp Upward Thrust which fails.
From the UT price descends forming the Creek which is where we are now.
The Creek continues to form but importantly does not break the lower Support (7,8)
Once we jump the Creek - which should be an expansive move up to test the Uppber Band and break past the UT - it should then retrace to test the Last Point of Support…. before breaking up in a Sign of Strength - another expansive move.
Now my lovely yellow line is no indication of prices, just direction, but the overall structure has critical points to keep an eye on.
1. If we break down below the Lower Support the setup is invalid and we are likely in a Distribution pattern - expect much more downside.
2. If we do break above the UT you will not have many opportunities to look for Long positions so be quick once you see this.
3. If this pattern is correct and plays out expect Alts to get rekt as people dump them to get on the BTC train.
No idea if this will play out but it seems likely given BTC has not tanked even with all the heavy heavy anti-crypto FUD, banks collapsing, Operation Chokepoint etc ….
Big news tonight and tomorrow night all around Employment - if unemployment goes up this will be bullish … but will it be bullish enough to jump the creek?
CPI data and FOMC minutes comes out again next Wednesday night so its feasible the continue the manipulation right up until that point before making a major move like that.
Jumping the Creek is a major chart changing move so if they have it planned they may not want to show their hand ahead of time. Just speculating …
If you turn your TV on or listen to social media pundits they would have us all believe the sky is falling on our heads, complete with radiation.
So why hasn’t BTC tanked?
I mean if its really as fragile as it has been behaving the last 15 months then surely we should be in the bin by now.
Well I have been looking into it a bit because of a couple things.
1. The longer you stay in a range the stronger it becomes. The more you accumulate in that area, the weaker the resistance gets above you. So the longer we hold out in the 28k zone the more likely the break to the upside becomes.
2. Since Alameda Research got taken out as a MM we have had a lot of smaller MMs in the space, so the ability of just one to rek the charts is a lot less. Also, the patters that the Alameda Algo was using are different to these ones, we are conforming more to regular manipulation in other words.
So … Wyckoff Accumulation/Distributions patterns?
Sitting at the top of a move is usually a Distribution pattern as the MM takes profits by selling to eager retail shrimps, only to tank the price when they are done.
Similarly when we are at the bottom you can see deliberate moves to prevent price tanking further, or moving higher until the trap is ready and we spring out quickly. Remember January?
But when the expansive move is done we just hover there seemingly. Most think this is a Distribution phase and would normally be right …
but we didnt tank… I mean I expected a move to 20,500 and we got 19,500 - but it was a pullback that propelled us up to 28k…. and thats where we have been.
Lots of people expecting THIS to be the Distribution and then dump back to 25k… 20k… 18k… 10k…the bears die hard.
But there is a less known Wyckoff pattern called the Reaccumulation, which is a pause along the way to a higher and longer bull run.
Others call it Rally, Base, Rally or choose your own terms but this pic is my attempt to see if it fits where we are now.
In short…
We have run up to the first Preliminary Supply at 27,600 setting in a new range, then continuing to the Buying Climax.
BCLX results in rejection back to test the bottom of the new range, which triggers an Automatic Reaction. This has to be strong and send price all the way back to the BCLX to retest it. We did that.
Price then moves to the mid point of the range to find Support (5) before yet again pushing lower to retest the support and take liquidity, resulting in a Spring and Test before moving up to again retest the high in a sharp Upward Thrust which fails.
From the UT price descends forming the Creek which is where we are now.
The Creek continues to form but importantly does not break the lower Support (7,8)
Once we jump the Creek - which should be an expansive move up to test the Uppber Band and break past the UT - it should then retrace to test the Last Point of Support…. before breaking up in a Sign of Strength - another expansive move.
Now my lovely yellow line is no indication of prices, just direction, but the overall structure has critical points to keep an eye on.
1. If we break down below the Lower Support the setup is invalid and we are likely in a Distribution pattern - expect much more downside.
2. If we do break above the UT you will not have many opportunities to look for Long positions so be quick once you see this.
3. If this pattern is correct and plays out expect Alts to get rekt as people dump them to get on the BTC train.
No idea if this will play out but it seems likely given BTC has not tanked even with all the heavy heavy anti-crypto FUD, banks collapsing, Operation Chokepoint etc ….
Big news tonight and tomorrow night all around Employment - if unemployment goes up this will be bullish … but will it be bullish enough to jump the creek?
CPI data and FOMC minutes comes out again next Wednesday night so its feasible the continue the manipulation right up until that point before making a major move like that.
Jumping the Creek is a major chart changing move so if they have it planned they may not want to show their hand ahead of time. Just speculating …