Bitcoin on the edge
As is often the case, we're back to discussing the future of your digital gold. Where is it headed?
We can approach this question from several angles: analyzing Bitcoin's current situation from either a fundamental or technical perspective.
For now, let's focus on the technical side.
Looking at the chart, I identified the price level to which Bitcoin was most sensitive in 2021. My analysis clearly points to one specific level:
$59,000
Three years ago, this price level triggered a 50% correction first, followed by a 30% correction.
The good news is that it has tried to break down once in the beggining of may, but it is holding for now.
The bad news is that the price action indicates sellers are currently in control, as evidenced by the steadily declining price.
The bottom line: Wait until the situation becomes clearer. It has been almost three months since this balance period started, and it will likely resolve sooner rather than later.
Stay tuned, and I will update this post with fresh price action news!
We can approach this question from several angles: analyzing Bitcoin's current situation from either a fundamental or technical perspective.
For now, let's focus on the technical side.
Looking at the chart, I identified the price level to which Bitcoin was most sensitive in 2021. My analysis clearly points to one specific level:
$59,000
Three years ago, this price level triggered a 50% correction first, followed by a 30% correction.
The good news is that it has tried to break down once in the beggining of may, but it is holding for now.
The bad news is that the price action indicates sellers are currently in control, as evidenced by the steadily declining price.
The bottom line: Wait until the situation becomes clearer. It has been almost three months since this balance period started, and it will likely resolve sooner rather than later.
Stay tuned, and I will update this post with fresh price action news!
Comment:
The week started with the inverse head and shoulders breakout.
At the same time we had the diagonal breakout too.
So for now, there are no signs that buyers should be worried. Since the situation is so clear, the first warning sign might be if
1) we are stuck above the breakout level for a prolonged period of time with no further progress
2) if we break the breakout level
I think this week's price action will be telling
At the same time we had the diagonal breakout too.
So for now, there are no signs that buyers should be worried. Since the situation is so clear, the first warning sign might be if
1) we are stuck above the breakout level for a prolonged period of time with no further progress
2) if we break the breakout level
I think this week's price action will be telling
Comment:
4 days since the breakout, and we still hold the important pivot 68k level.
There have been 2 intraday attempts to break down, but so far it looks (4 hours to go until close today) that both attempts have been just a daily wick.
Looking further into the lower timeframes, it is clear that the sellers are underwater for now.
(I highly recommend using the Time & volume point of control / quantifytools indicator, it shows potential bad positioning, for example: trapped sellers at support or trapped buyers at resistance)
But now the weekend is coming, which usually means lower volatility.
What I personally would like to see is the 69 000 number next to the bitcoin name by the time we turn to Monday's market opening.
To summarize, this is what we are looking at this time: a successful inverse head and shoulders breakout and a successful retest.
Have a good weekend everyone, we will continue next week!
There have been 2 intraday attempts to break down, but so far it looks (4 hours to go until close today) that both attempts have been just a daily wick.
Looking further into the lower timeframes, it is clear that the sellers are underwater for now.
(I highly recommend using the Time & volume point of control / quantifytools indicator, it shows potential bad positioning, for example: trapped sellers at support or trapped buyers at resistance)
But now the weekend is coming, which usually means lower volatility.
What I personally would like to see is the 69 000 number next to the bitcoin name by the time we turn to Monday's market opening.
To summarize, this is what we are looking at this time: a successful inverse head and shoulders breakout and a successful retest.
Have a good weekend everyone, we will continue next week!
This momentum pushed the price above two significant levels:
1) This balance point of control (POC)
2) The weekly and daily breakout point where the initial breakout attempt began
Additionally, the price pattern resembles an inverse head and shoulders, which can act as a bullish continuation formation.
To summarize:
The current price action indicates that the bulls are in control.
What’s next?
A break and sustained movement above 67.8k could propel the price into the 80k range.
Conversely, a break and acceptance below the point of control could drive the price down to at least 59k.
The visual content below: