Bitcoin Weekly Trading Plan (July 17th – 24th, 2023)
Background:
• On Thursday, July 13th, Bitcoin deviated above the range high and was rejected.
• Bitcoin formed a bearish divergence on the weekly and daily timeframes.
• On the weekly TF, Bitcoin’s PA looks indecisive (long wicks, small bodies) with a bearish bias.
• Also, Bitcoin’s impulsive PA, on July 19th weekly candle, left a liquidity pool between 26,350 – 29,500.
Weekly Bias:
• Considering the facts, my bias is short-term bearish. However, I do not think it is a good idea to open a short below the mid-range.
• I am expecting Bitcoin to deviate below the range low or even lower before resuming its uptrend.
• I have mapped all the possible turning points (that I can see).
• I am presenting you with a long trade setup for each turning point.
• Generally, the lower we go, the more significant my position size will be. With one reservation: a daily close below the trendline will decrease my confidence in a continuation to the upside.
Trade No.1:
• This trade is not high confidence. It is based on a support/resistance flip.
• Entry: 30,500 (After retest as support).
• SL: 30,250 (approximately. Below the candle of the previous daily close).
• Target: 31,800 (Range high).
• R: R: 1:5.7 (assuming the SL is at 30.25K and not lower).
Trade No.2:
• This trade is based on a deviation below the range low into the LP.
• Entry: 29,500 (After retest as support).
• SL: 29,200 (approximately. At the 50D EMA).
• Target: 31,800 (Range high).
• R: R: 1:7.8
Trade No. 3:
• This trade is based on Fibonacci retracements. Be advised, the SL on this trade is wide. Adjust your positions size and leverage accordingly.
• Entry: 28,740 (0.382 fib. After retest as support).
• SL: 27,940 (approximately. At the 0.5 fib).
• Target: 31,800 (Range high).
• R: R: 1:3.5
Trade No. 4:
• This trade is based on a Fibonacci retracement and the depletion of the LP.
• Entry: 27,280 (0.618 fib. After retest as support).
• SL: 26,820 (Low end of the liquidity pool).
• Target: 31,800 (Range high).
• R: R: 1:10
Trade No. 5:
• This trade is based on a daily demand zone and an upward sloping trendline. If Bitcoin closes a daily candle below the trendline, IMO this trade becomes low confidence.
• Entry: 26,550 (little bit above the demand zone).
• SL: 26,206 (Low end of the demand zone).
• Target: 31,800 (Range high).
• R: R: 1:15.7
NFA.
What do you think? Please share in the comments.
Best Wishes.
• On Thursday, July 13th, Bitcoin deviated above the range high and was rejected.
• Bitcoin formed a bearish divergence on the weekly and daily timeframes.
• On the weekly TF, Bitcoin’s PA looks indecisive (long wicks, small bodies) with a bearish bias.
• Also, Bitcoin’s impulsive PA, on July 19th weekly candle, left a liquidity pool between 26,350 – 29,500.
• Considering the facts, my bias is short-term bearish. However, I do not think it is a good idea to open a short below the mid-range.
• I am expecting Bitcoin to deviate below the range low or even lower before resuming its uptrend.
• I have mapped all the possible turning points (that I can see).
• I am presenting you with a long trade setup for each turning point.
• Generally, the lower we go, the more significant my position size will be. With one reservation: a daily close below the trendline will decrease my confidence in a continuation to the upside.
Trade No.1:
• This trade is not high confidence. It is based on a support/resistance flip.
• Entry: 30,500 (After retest as support).
• SL: 30,250 (approximately. Below the candle of the previous daily close).
• Target: 31,800 (Range high).
• R: R: 1:5.7 (assuming the SL is at 30.25K and not lower).
Trade No.2:
• This trade is based on a deviation below the range low into the LP.
• Entry: 29,500 (After retest as support).
• SL: 29,200 (approximately. At the 50D EMA).
• Target: 31,800 (Range high).
• R: R: 1:7.8
Trade No. 3:
• This trade is based on Fibonacci retracements. Be advised, the SL on this trade is wide. Adjust your positions size and leverage accordingly.
• Entry: 28,740 (0.382 fib. After retest as support).
• SL: 27,940 (approximately. At the 0.5 fib).
• Target: 31,800 (Range high).
• R: R: 1:3.5
Trade No. 4:
• This trade is based on a Fibonacci retracement and the depletion of the LP.
• Entry: 27,280 (0.618 fib. After retest as support).
• SL: 26,820 (Low end of the liquidity pool).
• Target: 31,800 (Range high).
• R: R: 1:10
Trade No. 5:
• This trade is based on a daily demand zone and an upward sloping trendline. If Bitcoin closes a daily candle below the trendline, IMO this trade becomes low confidence.
• Entry: 26,550 (little bit above the demand zone).
• SL: 26,206 (Low end of the demand zone).
• Target: 31,800 (Range high).
• R: R: 1:15.7
NFA.
What do you think? Please share in the comments.
Best Wishes.
