BITCOIN ( BTC /USDT) : Further 40% bullish potential towards 665

BITCOIN ( BTC /USDT) : Further 40% bullish potential towards 66500 expected

Update => Former tactical support invalidated at 40700 - What's next?

Context



The Bitcoin , as many other correlated crypto assets, confirmed a start of a significant upside swing after having developed a bearish reaction (auto-similar move - blue arrows) during the last past week. This Auto-similar move (a)=(c) is really healthy in a natural directional trend cycle, even if it looks huge.

Indeed watching at the historical data from BTC , this bearish reaction is completing a significant wave (4) on long cycle started 12 years ago…
We gonna start a new impulsion wave in 2022 with a significant potential max at 77 000 and 66500 as a standard level where it will make sense to hedge the portfolio - Check the last analysis ETH/BTC also => ETH outperformance is expected on the same time frame (see at the end of. the analysis)

Key level to watch



- 37600 key Fibonacci level + auto-similar irregular range in wave 2
- 52500 Intermediate target for short-term traders

- 66500/77000 standard Fibonacci level to anticipate the target of the follower wave 3 and 5 (5) V



Key Elements to watch



- Auto-similar move completed in January (Double blue Arrow) = Bullish

- EMA (Exp Moving average) are challenged (same config as oct 2021)

- RSI bounced off 38 support before doing a golden cross with MM
- Elliot wave account calling for wave 3 - Follower wave = Bullish



Tactical View (3 to 12 weeks)

After having challenged the direct rise configuration (40700 Support broken) the market is still showing sign of Bullish run start - As long as 40700 remains supports buy the market now or in dips and to plays a significant upside potential towards 66500 even 77 000

In case of a new bearish attack happen, the configuration will leans towards a test of 33700 before trying the same bullish run start. only 33700 totally penetrated will give a negative signal for the coming weeks raising the risk to test again 28900.

In term of allocation it is now better to rise the weight of ETH rather than BTC in portfolio which is expected to outperform the BTC on mid/long Run

Enjoy my friend

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Trade closed: stop reached:

update : the alternative case is in progress

In case of a new bearish attack happen, the configuration will leans towards a test of 33700 before trying the same bullish run start. only 33700 totally penetrated will give a negative signal for the coming weeks raising the risk to test again 28900.

once 33700 has been reached a bounce (squiz) can occur before giving the last impulsion to 28900

For now the Macro and geopolitical situation is too heavy to support for risk asset as SNP500 or BTC, the risk off mode has been actionated with the last speech of Powel (Fed) and situation in Ukraine and china will be not solved quicly..

A new tentative on BTC at 28900 to raise the exposure seems now more likely