SimonMercier

BTC : The same 3.5k-4k end point again and again and again

POLONIEX:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / Tether USD
Hi guys,

Its been almost a month that I highlight a target point between 3k-4.5k. At first it wasnt clear how it gonna be use and in which pattern and time frame

  • Target (reviewed) : 3k-4.5k
  • Pattern : ABCDE correction. MACD 1D centerline crossover. MACD 1D signal center line crossover . MACD 1D signal crossover (projected). Weekly ichimoku conversion line under base line. Fibonacci full retracement at 3.5k.
  • Factors of validation/invalidation : MACD 1D stay under signal. MACD 1D stay under centerline. Price staying in the bearish spectrum.
  • Opinion : the only logical scenario. No more alternative bullish count (it doesnt exclude bounce but nothing major). Honestly it would take some magic to reverse the bearish trend at our level
  • Chart
    1) hourly - Trend line with transposed ABC count of the weekly chart with median price trend pointing toward a landing zone near 4k

    2) daily - original post - ABCDE correction with fibonacci retracement

    3) weekly - ABC retracement with bearish MACD (under the signal) and ichimoku cloud retracement


I have an idea about the wave count but i will let some time past to have more data which will make a more precise projected wave count. Stay tuned.
Comment: 1 month and 1 week that it seems that i first saw it :

Trade active: Short term pivot point with indicator interaction :
Trade active: should land at the first bounce i expect (graph above) today. Ive did a bet that we should see it today with a guy. Lets see if that happens.
Trade active: Looks like a standard zigzag 5,3,5
End point = green square
Bounce target = 7225
I have some doubt that i might overestimate the bounce
Comment: precisely my bet is the bounce should start at 6499 or 6470
Comment: right now BTC seems to have bounced on my trend line that i previously drawn. For me it indicates subwave that i will no post here (risk to make more confusion than anything). I see that we might be at 3-4 subwave so it should make : 1)ABC pattern 2)ABCDE pattern. But my major wave 5 end where i projected because as extended wave 3 is, wave 5 should have a correspondant proportionnality. Then a major ABC to 7225, etc. etc.
Trade active: OKOK IM GONNA POST MY COUNT :
Comment: be aware that we may already leading toward major 5 as my wave 4 target as been reach almost immediatly after my post. Remember that i focus more on targets (Y) than targets (Y) in relation with time (X)
Comment: Final it was an ABC to 7267. Still near my 7225 !
Comment: The second ABC ended at 7233. 8$ between my projection 48 hours ago and real price !!

I revisited the form and i have this count. I have simplified the count. If the support (upper white line) is break then it should end at the next support ending the 5th wave

Trade active: Weekly post tomorrow ! stay tuned ! I have an idea of our current pattern. Will wait some data to have a stronger projection.
Trade active: This scenario is still on the table (finished A at 7027 or so i was projecting 6950 for A in this scenario) :

Will make a fresh post tomorrow. tired for tonight. I have 2 scenario in my head and will wait for more data to discern better. Cya tomorrow.
Trade active: going for C of the precendent chart
Update?
Reply
SimonMercier samiswilf
@samiswilf, factor of invalidation : price going out of the bearish spectrum. So lets see, right now bullish probability lead as shown in my anterior post.
Reply
Thanks heaps Good SIR!
+1 Reply
@djtreacy, always a pleasure !
Reply
it will go to C (as 4th wave) and then fall to 5800?
Reply
SimonMercier yshashmi37
@yshashmi37, we going for C of this chart. I think its a standard zig zag 5,3,5. we finished the first 5, now we going toward the C of the ABC (3). then amorcing a retracement which will be the wave 1 (which is not showed) :
Reply
yshashmi37 SimonMercier
@SimonMercier, after C where do we go? down or up?
Reply
SimonMercier yshashmi37
@yshashmi37, well normally if the first 5 is bearish the next 5 will be bearish. i got some crucial data that i will include in my next post. a volatility calculation which will very important for the next probable target.
Reply
yshashmi37 SimonMercier
@SimonMercier, i dont understand,... in your chart, we are on wave 4,..so why dont we go down to wave V (5)
Reply
SimonMercier yshashmi37
@yshashmi37, here :
Reply
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