Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysis
After an unsuccessful attempt to break trend line and the resistance block 27500, the price of Bitcoin began to drop, following the stock market. This happened on the wave of negativity from the speech of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Thus, the BTC price broke through the lower boundary of the parallel price channel and the dynamic support line EMA50 4H. In case of consolidation below it, we expect a return to the level of the value zone control point (POC).
An extended bullish divergence has formed on the daily logarithmic chart. This strengthens the scenario with a retest of the crossover of the 200-day and 200-week moving averages before further drop. But, to return to the local upward trend, the price needs to breakdown the resistance level of 27500 and consolidate above the downward trend line.
More generally, the price of BTC made breakdown of a bearish wedge pattern, and we still haven't had a normal correction of all the gains since the beginning of this year.
The targets of this correction can be 0.5-0.78 Fibonacci levels. There is a zone of Imbalance 1W with huge gaps at the horizontal levels of trading volumes that need to be filled. The next areas of interest for buyers are the range of 22000-23000 and the most important psychological level 20000. At these zones we will search pivot points formations to open long positions.
The fear and greed index continues to be in the fear zone - 30.
The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market fell to $1017 billion, and the Bitcoin dominance index rose to 50.0.
According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in exchanges order books, the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels:
🟢 Demand zone: 20000 - 25000
🔴 Supply zone: 30000 - 32000
📊 Fundamental analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) balances on leading cryptocurrency exchanges such as Coinbase, Binance and Kraken are near a six-year low. At first glance, a decrease in bitcoins held on exchanges is a bullish signal and indicates a strengthening market and expectations of rising prices. However, given the current regulatory landscape, traders and investors may opt for decentralized storage amid growing uncertainty.
Cryptocurrency exchange Binance was the main reason for the industry's 48% drop in trading volumes in September. According to analysts, the seven-day average bitcoin (BTC) spot trading volume on the platform has fallen 57% since the beginning of the month.
The US Federal Reserve, as expected, left the interest rate at the same level: 5.50%.
For the Fed, the goal of reducing inflation remains the same - 2%; it is inclined to maintain the current monetary policy. Another rate increase is possible if necessary. Expectations for a Fed rate cut have been pushed back from the 2nd quarter all the way to the 4th quarter of 2024. This regulatory policy puts pressure on the stock market, followed by the cryptocurrency market.
🌐 Upcoming macroeconomic events
We expect increased volatility in the stock and cryptocurrency markets by the following dates:
➤ 28.09 15:30 - US GDP (QoQ) (Q2).
➤ 03.10 17:00 - US JOLTs Job Openings (Aug).
➤ 01.10 21:00 - Fed Interest Rate Decision.
An extended bullish divergence has formed on the daily logarithmic chart. This strengthens the scenario with a retest of the crossover of the 200-day and 200-week moving averages before further drop. But, to return to the local upward trend, the price needs to breakdown the resistance level of 27500 and consolidate above the downward trend line.
More generally, the price of BTC made breakdown of a bearish wedge pattern, and we still haven't had a normal correction of all the gains since the beginning of this year.
The targets of this correction can be 0.5-0.78 Fibonacci levels. There is a zone of Imbalance 1W with huge gaps at the horizontal levels of trading volumes that need to be filled. The next areas of interest for buyers are the range of 22000-23000 and the most important psychological level 20000. At these zones we will search pivot points formations to open long positions.
The fear and greed index continues to be in the fear zone - 30.
The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market fell to $1017 billion, and the Bitcoin dominance index rose to 50.0.
According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in exchanges order books, the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels:
🟢 Demand zone: 20000 - 25000
🔴 Supply zone: 30000 - 32000
📊 Fundamental analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) balances on leading cryptocurrency exchanges such as Coinbase, Binance and Kraken are near a six-year low. At first glance, a decrease in bitcoins held on exchanges is a bullish signal and indicates a strengthening market and expectations of rising prices. However, given the current regulatory landscape, traders and investors may opt for decentralized storage amid growing uncertainty.
Cryptocurrency exchange Binance was the main reason for the industry's 48% drop in trading volumes in September. According to analysts, the seven-day average bitcoin (BTC) spot trading volume on the platform has fallen 57% since the beginning of the month.
The US Federal Reserve, as expected, left the interest rate at the same level: 5.50%.
For the Fed, the goal of reducing inflation remains the same - 2%; it is inclined to maintain the current monetary policy. Another rate increase is possible if necessary. Expectations for a Fed rate cut have been pushed back from the 2nd quarter all the way to the 4th quarter of 2024. This regulatory policy puts pressure on the stock market, followed by the cryptocurrency market.
🌐 Upcoming macroeconomic events
We expect increased volatility in the stock and cryptocurrency markets by the following dates:
➤ 28.09 15:30 - US GDP (QoQ) (Q2).
➤ 03.10 17:00 - US JOLTs Job Openings (Aug).
➤ 01.10 21:00 - Fed Interest Rate Decision.
📈 AI BuySell Indicator: www.tradeinex.net/indicator
💎 Telegram channel: t.me/tradeinexen
_____________
📈 Наш Торговый Индикатор: tradeinex.com/index/indikatory_tradeinex/0-20
💎 Телеграм канал: t.me/tradeinex
💎 Telegram channel: t.me/tradeinexen
_____________
📈 Наш Торговый Индикатор: tradeinex.com/index/indikatory_tradeinex/0-20
💎 Телеграм канал: t.me/tradeinex
