Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysis
Bitcoin continues to move according to the scenario of our last idea. After a retest the level of value zone control point (POC), the price broke through the EMA50 4H line and went beyond the global downward trend line. Now we are seeing a test of a large resistance block of 27000-28000, on which the direction of further movement of the BTC price will depend. This impulse growth occurred after a speech by SEC Chair Gary Gensler, where he admitted that Bitcoin is not a security. Another factor was the weakening dollar index DXY.
If BTC consolidates above the downward trend line and exit the current price range, we will expect growth into the 4H Imbalance zone, where it is necessary to trade dips at horizontal levels of trading volumes.
In addition, consolidation above the trend line can occur through its retest if the bulls fail to immediately brake the resistance block of 27000-28000. Thus, during a trend retest, the necessary correction of the last growth impulse to 0.5-0.61 Fibonacci levels may occur.
An extended bullish divergence works on the daily logarithmic chart, according to our scenario with a retest of the crossover of the 200-day and 200-week moving averages before further drop. But, to return to the local upward trend, the price needs to breakdown the resistance level of 27500 and consolidate above the downward trend line.
More generally, the price of BTC made breakdown of a bearish wedge pattern, and we still haven't had a normal correction of all the gains since the beginning of this year.
The targets of this correction can be 0.5-0.78 Fibonacci levels. There is a zone of Imbalance 1W with huge gaps at the horizontal levels of trading volumes that need to be filled. The next areas of interest for buyers are the range of 22000-23000 and the most important psychological level 20000. At these zones we will search pivot points formations to open long positions.
The index of fear and greed is in the fear zone - 46.
The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market increased to $1054 billion, and the Bitcoin dominance index fell to 50.03.
According to the analysis of the accumulation of large orders blocks, the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels:
🟢 Demand zone: 17000 - 22500
🔴 Offer zone: 28000 - 32000
📊 Fundamental analysis
US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler spoke in the House Financial Services Committee. Gary Gensler admitted that Bitcoin is not a security.
The market capitalization of stablecoins has fallen for 18 months in a row. The total capitalization of all stablecoins in circulation decreased by 0.63% in September and reached its lowest level since August 2021. This was caused by a drop in trading activity on exchanges.
But the volume of BTC in the hands of long-term holders is approaching a historical maximum. In previous cycles, this was a signal of a macro bottom, followed by the early phase of a bull market.
US GDP data confirmed the forecast and now stands at 2.1%. Thus, in the 2nd quarter of this year, the US economy grew by 0.1% compared to the previous reporting period. The American stock market has already reacted to this news with a slight increase in the S&P500 index of the largest US companies. And the DXY dollar index fell.
🌐 Upcoming macroeconomic events
We expect increased volatility in the stock and cryptocurrency markets by the following dates:
➤ 03.10 17:00 - JOLTs Job Openings (Aug).
➤ 12.10 15:30 - Core CPI (MoM) (Sep).
➤ 01.11 21:00 - Neq Fed Interest Rate Decision.
If BTC consolidates above the downward trend line and exit the current price range, we will expect growth into the 4H Imbalance zone, where it is necessary to trade dips at horizontal levels of trading volumes.
In addition, consolidation above the trend line can occur through its retest if the bulls fail to immediately brake the resistance block of 27000-28000. Thus, during a trend retest, the necessary correction of the last growth impulse to 0.5-0.61 Fibonacci levels may occur.
An extended bullish divergence works on the daily logarithmic chart, according to our scenario with a retest of the crossover of the 200-day and 200-week moving averages before further drop. But, to return to the local upward trend, the price needs to breakdown the resistance level of 27500 and consolidate above the downward trend line.
More generally, the price of BTC made breakdown of a bearish wedge pattern, and we still haven't had a normal correction of all the gains since the beginning of this year.
The targets of this correction can be 0.5-0.78 Fibonacci levels. There is a zone of Imbalance 1W with huge gaps at the horizontal levels of trading volumes that need to be filled. The next areas of interest for buyers are the range of 22000-23000 and the most important psychological level 20000. At these zones we will search pivot points formations to open long positions.
The index of fear and greed is in the fear zone - 46.
The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market increased to $1054 billion, and the Bitcoin dominance index fell to 50.03.
According to the analysis of the accumulation of large orders blocks, the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels:
🟢 Demand zone: 17000 - 22500
🔴 Offer zone: 28000 - 32000
📊 Fundamental analysis
US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler spoke in the House Financial Services Committee. Gary Gensler admitted that Bitcoin is not a security.
The market capitalization of stablecoins has fallen for 18 months in a row. The total capitalization of all stablecoins in circulation decreased by 0.63% in September and reached its lowest level since August 2021. This was caused by a drop in trading activity on exchanges.
But the volume of BTC in the hands of long-term holders is approaching a historical maximum. In previous cycles, this was a signal of a macro bottom, followed by the early phase of a bull market.
US GDP data confirmed the forecast and now stands at 2.1%. Thus, in the 2nd quarter of this year, the US economy grew by 0.1% compared to the previous reporting period. The American stock market has already reacted to this news with a slight increase in the S&P500 index of the largest US companies. And the DXY dollar index fell.
🌐 Upcoming macroeconomic events
We expect increased volatility in the stock and cryptocurrency markets by the following dates:
➤ 03.10 17:00 - JOLTs Job Openings (Aug).
➤ 12.10 15:30 - Core CPI (MoM) (Sep).
➤ 01.11 21:00 - Neq Fed Interest Rate Decision.
📈 AI BuySell Indicator: www.tradeinex.net/indicator
💎 Telegram channel: t.me/tradeinexen
_____________
📈 Наш Торговый Индикатор: tradeinex.com/index/indikatory_tradeinex/0-20
💎 Телеграм канал: t.me/tradeinex
💎 Telegram channel: t.me/tradeinexen
_____________
📈 Наш Торговый Индикатор: tradeinex.com/index/indikatory_tradeinex/0-20
💎 Телеграм канал: t.me/tradeinex
