Multi Timeframe Analysis
Hint: 10k May Be an Intermediate Stop. Think Lower. 8K?
Technical Analysis sees respected bearish Harmonic Patterns; dire macroeconomics ensures further crypto sell-offs
Bearish Narrative:
1. Money flow index in temporary extended green- profit taking coming.
2. DOW dumped 600 points after FOMC meeting addressing inflation and CPI .
3. Goldman Sachs sees severely diminished Chinese 2023 growth due to Covid Zero Policy
4. More standoffs between Europe and Russia. European sanctions vs halted Russian gas. Who wins?
5. US unemployment rate soars to 4.4% from 3.7%
6. Housing market heading for up to 20% correction
3. Cypher bearish harmonic pattern on the Daily chart indicating potential downside
4. Traders Dynamic Index signalling a potential oversold.
5. Big picture: all global stock indices have plummeted 20% recently
Expected movements: Fundamental analysis and technical scrutiny point to what holders don't want to see. The global markets will drop lower and take BTC and the crypto market cap with it. In fact Goldman Sachs projects a further 10% drop in global markets within this year.
Recommendation: Continue your dollar cost averaging while ensuring you have enough dry powder to acquire assets later on.
Remember: life often disrespects charts so trade with caution
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Market order position upon the confluence of valid entry rules on the 4H or 1H chart.
-=ENTRY RULES=-
Trading philosophy: Don’t short at the lowest of the bearish momentum nor do we long at the peak of a bullish impulse. The safest entries are at the end of a retrace on the 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% fibonacci back in the direction of the master trend.
Note: I use Daily/4H or 4h/1H market structures with wave analysis to prep for potential entries. The RSI , MACD and EMA indictors are confirmation for entries at the 4H or 1H timeframe
For SHORT:
4H chart should confirm that the bullish retrace had turned bearish in the direction of master trend. The MACD should have dropped below zero signifying a bearish environment. Price would have dropped below the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is below the 50 signal line
For LONG:
4H chart should confirm that the bearish retrace had turned bullish in the direction of the master trend. The MACD should have gone above zero signifying a bullish environment. Price had gone above the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is above the 50 signal line
Divergences:
The 4H, 8H and 12H chart can reveal hidden divergences on the RSI , MACD , Money Flow Index, CMFI, On Balance Volume and Stochastics. When one or more divergences manifest- be ready. Trend reversal is coming. My best practice is to wait for at least an RSI divergence on the 4H, then drop to M15 to see price shifting with a 50EMA aligned with the 4H divergence.
About me
I am not a financial advisor nor a signal provider. These are the opinions of a 20-year private trader in the legal profession as well as a businessman diversified in the tech and hospitality industries. My favored tools of the trade include wave analysis, price action on the 4H to Weekly timeframes and institutional order flow ( COT data).
Hint: 10k May Be an Intermediate Stop. Think Lower. 8K?
Technical Analysis sees respected bearish Harmonic Patterns; dire macroeconomics ensures further crypto sell-offs
Bearish Narrative:
1. Money flow index in temporary extended green- profit taking coming.
2. DOW dumped 600 points after FOMC meeting addressing inflation and CPI .
3. Goldman Sachs sees severely diminished Chinese 2023 growth due to Covid Zero Policy
4. More standoffs between Europe and Russia. European sanctions vs halted Russian gas. Who wins?
5. US unemployment rate soars to 4.4% from 3.7%
6. Housing market heading for up to 20% correction
3. Cypher bearish harmonic pattern on the Daily chart indicating potential downside
4. Traders Dynamic Index signalling a potential oversold.
5. Big picture: all global stock indices have plummeted 20% recently
Expected movements: Fundamental analysis and technical scrutiny point to what holders don't want to see. The global markets will drop lower and take BTC and the crypto market cap with it. In fact Goldman Sachs projects a further 10% drop in global markets within this year.
Recommendation: Continue your dollar cost averaging while ensuring you have enough dry powder to acquire assets later on.
Remember: life often disrespects charts so trade with caution
------
Market order position upon the confluence of valid entry rules on the 4H or 1H chart.
-=ENTRY RULES=-
Trading philosophy: Don’t short at the lowest of the bearish momentum nor do we long at the peak of a bullish impulse. The safest entries are at the end of a retrace on the 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% fibonacci back in the direction of the master trend.
Note: I use Daily/4H or 4h/1H market structures with wave analysis to prep for potential entries. The RSI , MACD and EMA indictors are confirmation for entries at the 4H or 1H timeframe
For SHORT:
4H chart should confirm that the bullish retrace had turned bearish in the direction of master trend. The MACD should have dropped below zero signifying a bearish environment. Price would have dropped below the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is below the 50 signal line
For LONG:
4H chart should confirm that the bearish retrace had turned bullish in the direction of the master trend. The MACD should have gone above zero signifying a bullish environment. Price had gone above the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is above the 50 signal line
Divergences:
The 4H, 8H and 12H chart can reveal hidden divergences on the RSI , MACD , Money Flow Index, CMFI, On Balance Volume and Stochastics. When one or more divergences manifest- be ready. Trend reversal is coming. My best practice is to wait for at least an RSI divergence on the 4H, then drop to M15 to see price shifting with a 50EMA aligned with the 4H divergence.
About me
I am not a financial advisor nor a signal provider. These are the opinions of a 20-year private trader in the legal profession as well as a businessman diversified in the tech and hospitality industries. My favored tools of the trade include wave analysis, price action on the 4H to Weekly timeframes and institutional order flow ( COT data).