Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysis

After retesting the trendline, the price of Bitcoin made a sharp and impulsive move, breaking through the resistance level at 28,000 and entering the 4-hour Imbalance zone, briefly touching the 30,000 mark. This manipulative surge was triggered by fake news about the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF for BlackRock and resulted in the liquidation of short positions totaling $105.28 million. Consequently, we got a glimpse of what could happen to the price of BTC if a real spot Bitcoin ETF were to be approved right now. However, after such a vivid demonstration of market sentiment, this event is already factored into the chart.

If the price manages to sustain itself above the 28,000 level, we anticipate trading in the 4-hour Imbalance zone to fill gaps at horizontal volume trading levels before retesting a significant resistance block at 30,000. Currently, the RSI indicator readings are in overbought territory, and a local correction through trading could bring them back to a normal state before the next upward impulse.



📉 Global view of the Bitcoin market

On the daily logarithmic chart, the BTC price is once again attempting to overcome the intersection of the 200-day and 200-week moving averages. If it succeeds, we may look forward to the realization of our primary scenario, involving a retest of the lower boundary of the Bearish Wedge pattern before further moving down from it. It's worth noting that there hasn't been a proper correction of the entire growth since the beginning of this year, and we anticipate it within the 0.61-0.78 Fibonacci levels, which corresponds to the range of 20,000 to 25,000.
The RSI indicator readings have bounced off the support line and are heading towards overbought territory, but there is still room for movement.



💠 Analysis of zones and levels for making trading decisions

The index of fear and greed returned to the neutral zone - 47.
The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market decreased to $1063 billion, and the Bitcoin dominance index increased to 51.72.
According to the analysis of the accumulation of large blocks of orders in order books, the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels:
🟢 Demand zone: 23000 - 26500
🔴 Offer zone: 30000 - 35000

Levels for long positions:
26 500 - support block and trend retest
25,000 - support block and trend retest
23,000 - level of the cost zone control point (POC)
22,000 - 0.61 Fibonacci retracement level
20,000 - 0.78 Fibonacci retracement level
17000-19000 - Imbalance zone 1H

Levels for short positions:
29,000-30,000 - 0.78 Fibonacci retracement level
32 000-35000 - Imbalance zone 1W
36,000-38,000 - zone of possible retest of the trend line
40,000 - psychological resistance level




📊 Fundamental analysis

Rumors of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) giving the green light to a Bitcoin spot ETF briefly drove the price of BTC to $30,000. However, after BlackRock refuted this information, the primary cryptocurrency returned to $28,000. The high volatility led to the liquidation of trades worth over $105.28 million in just one hour, with $73.25 million attributed to short positions.

The S&P 500, representing the largest U.S. companies, continues its attempts to break through the dynamic resistance line EMA50. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is experiencing a pullback after its recent upward momentum.


🌐 Upcoming macroeconomic events

On the following dates we expect increased volatility in the stock market and cryptocurrency markets:

➤ 10.19 19:00 - Speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

➤ 26.10 15:30 - US GDP data for 3 quarters.

➤ 01.11 21:00 - New decision on the Fed interest rate.

➤ 03.11 15:30 - Data on unemployment recommendations for October.