So aside from my original 2 ideas I have posted so far, I must state that my follow up commentary ideas have been very accurate (see comments on my previous posts). If you want to see them step by step, My analysis part 2 is where I had very good accuracy w/ follow up comments, initial was slightly off. I wouldn't be able to do this without the amazing analysts I follow on here (mentioned below in a list).
I missed a few targets where channels diverged slightly, and I missed calling the crash from 13,700 to 10800 (I called the crash from 12000 to 10800 instead). Aside from this, I am new and still learning, but at the time I did not see anyone really talking about correction until right before it happened. (I'm sure as hell someone called it, but I can't view all ideas on here!). It hit me when I saw a post from @botje11 showing a December 2017 pattern that was eerily similar to what we are seeing now. I commented on his post with what I expected to happen (I will paste into comments below) and here is how it played out. What I'm noticing now is that we are in a , and if we don't break out with high , I think it will go to 10300 maybe 9800. Hopefully we get out!
It was unpopular to talk about a crash so soon as everyone said there is little to no resistance past X point, although several did say a correction was coming. But as I did live through 2017 (as many of us here did) I express extreme caution this time around. This is a VERY different market than what we experienced then, so here are my two cents.
I will talk about an unpopular opinion of mine, but I don't really care what others think, because when it comes to your finances, you need to be in control. I will not sit here and say "relax, it's a bull market!", because you can lose A LOT of money at any point in time. Unless you have millions of dollars, or you're one of the biggest whales, you are not in control. Even some whales will have little influence this time around due to the awareness that people have of bitcoins , due to the crash of 2017. Sentiments were different then, where as I think people will express much more caution this time around, leading to a more suppressed bull market. I still think we will reach highs, new highs, I'm unsure, I don't think anyone can tell as this is still a new beast.
But I am here to tell you personally, that you are NOT in control. You need to understand that. This market is controlled by others, and it is very manipulated, at unpredictable times. It can and might crash at any second, no matter what past models show. That's why you have to treat it as such. But, you CAN be in control of your own outcome if you play smart. People rag on @MagicPoopCannon, but he is RIGHT. Be aware of what might happen. Why? Because people remember what happened in the past and will express caution this time around, much less of that existed back then imo . As investor sentiment has changed, so can the market.
To be in control, you need to be aware and create self awareness. It is something I learned while obtaining my Ph .D., is that you need to analyze all possible situations. Especially in chemistry and chemical reactions, but it applies here also. Use , look at past patterns, also look for divergence, and have an escape route. If you don't understand or can't explain what you are working with, or know the associated risks, you are not prepared. Be prepared for this to crash, no matter what people say it is going to do, or how it "should" act based on past patterns. I am not a whale, and from one ordinary person to another, it can at any moment and you will lose. Set stop-losses, have patience at knowing buy areas, and you might have a good chance against the whales.
This is by no means an attack on other analysts here. It is almost scary how accurate they are! Which is why I am long term and think it will rise. But all I say is keep an open mind. The more open minded you are, such as to ideas like @MagicPoopCanon who say be ready for a crash, you will be prepped for all situations. Think for yourself, not for what others tell you to do.
My favorite analysts who've given me insight and amazing ideas (in no particular order):
Surround yourself with people who are known to be accurate, it will make you a much more intelligent and aware person. Subscribe to their ideas. These people are absolutely amazing at TA.
As a new update to this chart, we now know that this does go down to 10800, and possibly 10300 - 9800 if we do not break out strongly from what we are currently in.
Credit to @botje11 for helping me understand this, first to comment on his post with suggestions of what will happen.
I know that and I definitely agree with you. I'm new, I have no real cred and nothing compared to people on here. I'm speaking to the average person who might be in my position. But I have made good money swing trading with moderate long positions, depending on market situations, to the point that I really have self trust. I hope to become a better analyst and want to help others in similar positions.
Points to watch in the next few hours after failed breakout of channel.
1) Back to channel edge and successful breakout
2) Rebound at 10800 and then channel breakout
3) Failed rebound at 10800 then to 10500
Added watch point
However, more bullish after this.
Reentry into old channel (or new wall creation) means we will have possible exits at rebounds from 11150 and 10800 for our next points to watch.