Taking a look at the chart on the right. BTC currently is ranging between 30 000 and 42 000 USD. Here are the possible cases for BTC.
Ultra bullish case (20% chance)
1. We had a wave 1 of the impulse wave, for the past week, it was the wave 2 and now we will have a wave 3 breaking this raising channel and 42 000USD. As mentioned, this is unlikely to be the case.
How do we know if this is in play? If we break 38 000USD the top of this leading diagonal and breaking the white downward channel.
Bullish case (70% chance)
2. We had a 12345 impulse correction down already as shown on the chart. The correction is done. What the current side way action is a leading diagonal for ABCDE and followed by a little correction then taking off to break 42 000USD for a bull market confirmation. This chart is shown on the left where we should be going to 3 7000 - 38 000 USD in the next week.
How do we know if this is true? If we remain within this leading diagonal range, then we are still bullishly going up.
Bearish case (40% chance)
3. We are still in wave 5 (as shown on the right chart). We had a wave 1 complete and an ABC upwards. We are fully bearish and coming down for the wave 3 and breaking 30 000USD.
How do we know if this is the case? If the leading diagonal is broken down on the daily, then we are fully bearish again.
Please note that even if the leading diagonal of ABCDE is complete, this case can still be in play. Dont get fooled by the market maker when everyone goes bullish. So making sure that you sell at the E top and then only buy back after the white downward channel is broken. Or start accumulate when the price action comes down after touching E.
The most likely case for now is the leading diagonal ABCDE as the bull used 2 days to shake out the weak hands and pumped the price 8 hours ago with a clear break of the ascending triangle on the 15 mins timeframe. I am in a short position for very short term. The medium term direction is bull until invalidation above.
Thank you
LZ
Ultra bullish case (20% chance)
1. We had a wave 1 of the impulse wave, for the past week, it was the wave 2 and now we will have a wave 3 breaking this raising channel and 42 000USD. As mentioned, this is unlikely to be the case.
How do we know if this is in play? If we break 38 000USD the top of this leading diagonal and breaking the white downward channel.
Bullish case (70% chance)
2. We had a 12345 impulse correction down already as shown on the chart. The correction is done. What the current side way action is a leading diagonal for ABCDE and followed by a little correction then taking off to break 42 000USD for a bull market confirmation. This chart is shown on the left where we should be going to 3 7000 - 38 000 USD in the next week.
How do we know if this is true? If we remain within this leading diagonal range, then we are still bullishly going up.
Bearish case (40% chance)
3. We are still in wave 5 (as shown on the right chart). We had a wave 1 complete and an ABC upwards. We are fully bearish and coming down for the wave 3 and breaking 30 000USD.
How do we know if this is the case? If the leading diagonal is broken down on the daily, then we are fully bearish again.
Please note that even if the leading diagonal of ABCDE is complete, this case can still be in play. Dont get fooled by the market maker when everyone goes bullish. So making sure that you sell at the E top and then only buy back after the white downward channel is broken. Or start accumulate when the price action comes down after touching E.
The most likely case for now is the leading diagonal ABCDE as the bull used 2 days to shake out the weak hands and pumped the price 8 hours ago with a clear break of the ascending triangle on the 15 mins timeframe. I am in a short position for very short term. The medium term direction is bull until invalidation above.
Thank you
LZ
Comment:
4H broke down following the bear case. Reserve your capital
Comment:
We are in the falling wedge again. Will update soon
Comment:
Comment:
SL below 32 000USD
Trade closed manually