Bitcoin inside a triangle, decision coming days? Part 3 for BINANCE:BTCUSDT by botje11

The price difference went up to 50 points almost again and each time this happened the Bitmex brother eventually won the small battle again and made the price drop again because the volume from the buyers was just too low each time. Repeating the same pattern over and over again. One thing that is bugging me, i just can help thinking there is a game plan here. Why would one keep on buying while seeing the spread go to 50 points again and each time the price just drops to a lower low. In the "fractal" these big price differences did not appear so big and clearly like they are now.

Open intrest on Bitmex went up the past few days from 680 to 747 mil, showing that new positions (long and short) have increased. So my thought is, a big move is being fueled at the moment, that's why it's probably moving so slowly. There is no other logical explanation that i can think of. We have already dropped out of the triangle from the primary chart, but no real acceleration down yet. This could still be just a retest of the former resistance though (which is completely normal).

I added another circle to this fractal, which shows we could still see that bigger wave down happen anytime again. The current bounce up is quite similar the the other one. So unless that yellow resistance break (around 6540 on Binance) we have to assume that we will see a similar move again. It would be crazy if it would make the exact same move.

I still can't say what the end game is here, but i doubt if there won't be a bear/bull trap first before taking the real direction.

Bitfinex maintenance tomorrow for about 2 hours. We remember what happened last time when Bitmex had this. Within seconds that the maintenance started Bitfinex whales pumped the price to above 6800 and when Bitmex opened again, the liquidations had reached even 7150ish prices on Bitmex. This really can't be any good for the market, when the most bullish exchange of the past months will be offline for roughly 2 hours. From what i remember in the past, nothing happened with the price during maintenance of exchanges. But in those days Bitmex was not as big as it is now. I really don't know what can happen here and can't give any advice. Expect that having no position at all is probably the wisest choice. Unless you like to gamble of course. Maybe nothing happens, maybe the price crashes or even goes up, who knows. But first thought is, without Bitfinex and it's whales trading there, bitmex brothers will try to crash the price. I am not trading this because i don't like to gamble.

Part of the message from the Bitfinex website:

Bitfinex will be undertaking planned infrastructure maintenance on October 4, 2018 between 06:00 AM UTC and 18:00 PM UTC. The exact timing of the maintenance update will made public 30 minutes prior to the start of the update.

Traders should expect a service interruption of roughly 2 hours while this maintenance is being performed.

Previous analysis:

Bitcoin inside a triangle, decision coming days? Part 2

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On the right we can see how Bitcoin dropped out if that triangle and at the moment it's doing nothing more than a retest of former support. Very low volume so no reason yet to assume the bulls will push it higher again. They did manage to push it back in that possible channel on the left though. Can't say yet if it has any meaning, but based on the slow movement, i have to say it's not much.

Still the 6540ish is the level the bulls need to break for now.

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I see the fractal is not that clear in the chart, so here another one.

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Difference went up to even 60 points just now. Finex and Binance are pushing against those 6540, Bitmex boys stay below 6500 at around 6480. Still nothing more than a retest now.

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POsted the wrong link sorry:

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And once again the price dropped again because the spread increased at during that move up earlier. The bulls attacked the 6540ish, they did 2 attempts but the other exchanges just did not follow at all. It's almost a slam dunk short each time the price goes up, spread reaches 50 points and we drop again 50 to 100 points. So far it has just been a retest of former support but there is also not an acceleration downwards now, still very slow movement. Alts have weakened since yesterday as well, so nothing good from that side.

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If the red resistance breaks, we should see this double bottom pattern. Doesn't mean the only way is up, but the 6640/60 could be testet again. But it needs a bit of volume to push through the first one

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Price difference has reached 50ish again, so wondering if it will drop again or if the bulls step up this time and push through that red resistance to test the 6650ish

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Strange, that from all exchanges, Bitmex drops as later than the rest. And 2 50btc buys pop op on Finex as well. Maybe it's nothing, maybe it's support. When things get too dangerous they DO support it on finex. Getting paranoid from all this shit the past days. Everything says we have to drop but we just don't drop.

The message above was something i posted in the VIP chat, just some talk, was after seeing this stick out on my special chart,

The red one is bitmex, where it ususally drops first or even drags the whole market down, this was a very weird move, never seen it the past 5/6 weeks. At the moment i can see some real fighting going on at Bitmex, where selling orders keep popping in, but the bulls keep pushing though. I wonder if it's all connected from that point on. We are up 100 points now since i saw those 2 50btc buy orders on Finex

I can't post that chart here unfortunately, at least i have no clue HOW to do that. And i am not allowed to tell here where you can see it :)

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So target reached, now the pressure is still there though from the bulls. but this 6640/6660 level has been a very big resistance for many times now the past weeks. It won't be an easy one to crack. So the bears can still push it down again, but if they fail, we could see another jump up towards 6800. Think allot of stops are accumulated around 6650/6700! So who knows what might happen if that one breaks as well. But so far i see Finex pushing but i see sell orders popping in on Bitmex. So it's a fight people, finally some action!!

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Alts are went up, but no big jumps up yet, so no confirmation yet. Think these buyers want to see Bitcoin stay above 6600 before they start to really buy. So everything is still in danger zone. Above 6660 things become neutral and a bit bullish on the low time frame

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This bull flag might fail, it is taking too long already, that lost pop up (yellow circle should have been it. I have seen these things many times before, it''s almost taking too long already. I can see push back on Finex as well.

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So that first small bull flag where the bulls were really pushing (previous update) failed as suspected. But it has not turned into a Bart move (yet). I have a bullish exchange on the left and a bearish one on the right. On this time frame this bull flag is still looking perfect, stable and strong. But when zooming in it tends to look a bit like a Bart move. So it's still 50/50 at the moment on being a normal flag or a Bart move. I think we can see 2 types of moves here, that is the blue and red line on the left. Usually with Bart moves we see another attempt of bulls to push it up, but because of the volume power of the people creating the Bart moves, they tend to push it down again. So when you see a move up like the red one and a push down just as fast again, than it's 80% sure to become a Bart move. If the bulls show force and volume, we should see a fast rally towards the target without hesitation. There is a third option as well, will show that in another chart.

The spread between exchanges is around 40 points now, so not the 50 we have seen many times indicating a drop and not the 30 saying it's neutral, so nothing to go on that unfortunately. Not much to go on with the Alt as well, most are a bit weak but there is a chance they can still move up. See it like a triangle where they are at support levels about to break down, but still at support so they can still move up as well.

If the bulls do manage to push up and reach the target, things will change allot on the higher time frame.

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So still inside the bull flag and nothing real has happened. But the longer this takes the bigger the chances this flag will fail and we start to drop again. There is a clear neckline here on the right chart, if the bulls don't even manage to reach it we could see a similar move as the last inverse H&S. These types of H&S are unreliable, mentioned that many times before and the previous one shows that. What the bulls need to do, is make a move up WITH volume during that breakout. The price should stay above the 6500ish on the bearish exchanges to keep this inverse H&S alive. I give the bull flag like an hour or so to break up, otherwise it will probably fail and we could drop again.

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I am surprised to see that it's Bitmex that is pushing up now with this move towards the neckline. But hey have done this since that move at the low yesterday what i talked about. So this could be part 2 of these buyers stepping up the past 24 hours. Buyers we have not seen for a long time now. But no real movement from others and no volume. But it's close now, bulls need to make a small 20/40 point move up and this inverse H&S might get triggered.

To be clear, this can all still fail, unless we see good aggressive buying on other exchanges as well, not seeing that yet.

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So far it's following the red line from a typical Bart move, when it gets below the green support around 6520ish, it will probably mean the fun for the bulls is already over.

Moving almost 24H within +-30 points and a month in this 6K range. We can say the 6650 is a level to watch and the 6400 as well. Anything in between, let's just hope it is going to end soon.

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I can see some big buyers on Bitmex, again, just like yesterday trying to push the price up. Lets see if they can manage to do it again like they did yesterday. But this resistance is much bigger than yesterdays though, much more important level to break, because a move up here could give the upper hand back to the bulls again.
Even though it looked like the bull flag would fail, that green support held after all.

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It's clear someone does not want the price to go up. Seems it was a 1.250 btc dump on Bitfinex. Just when the bulls were trying again to push up. This could start a small panic now in the market.

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But surpsingly, i see some buy support on Bitmex. Strange day, like the bulls and bears have changed exchanges, Bears from Bitmex to Bitfinex and the bulls the other way around

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What a surprise, half a day later and nothing has changed :).

It's a bullish sign i think that we have not dropped yet because of the dumping that went on at Finex. But in general, it's not looking that great. But it keeps changing everyday for a week now, so best just to wait for some breaks of support or resistance levels. Alts not looking great, but can of course change as well.

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Inverse H&S could still happen

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Seems a Finex whale tried to trigger the inverse H&S. But other exchanges did not really follow and the price got pushed back down again. The price action on Bitmex has been pretty weird the past hour or 2. There are allot of buy orders waiting around the current price, but a 3 mil sell orders keeps trying to push the price down. Now when looking at the chart, the inverse H&S is still in play since we are around the neckline.
So it looks like, this 3 mil sell orders might be pushing sellers into his own buy orders and probably move the price upwards when being done. Does not really look like they are pushing the price down, there was a 3 mil sell orders though earlier, so i might be wrong, hard to tell.
Been out most of the day to come back and see this sh.t is still going on.

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Starting to look like a Bart move now. Bitfinex dumped a bit, Bitmex seems to be accumulating. But there is allot of strange things going on now. There was just a hidden sell wall on Bitfinex, not big though, 500 btc at 6580. So best guess now, is a coin toss :)

Anyway, the 6660ish resistance is still hanging above the market. At least that is very clear.

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Might be the last update for today, since it's a waste of time. Unless we see a real move hopefully soon.
I looked into things a bit more, it sticks out that Bitmex is the only exchange that has more volume in the last drop than yesterdays. Could mean nothing could mean something, have no reference for this. It would confirm the accumulation. But i am not trading it, it's Saturday, which has been the most boring day to trade lately. Just wanted to point it out to see if it means something or not, so we might be able to use it in the future.

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I will post an update soon.

Seems there are some forces that don't want to see this market move up. Current move looks like the other 3 yellow circles, but we are above a resistance now. It the bulls can keep it above that level now, we could see another move up later today. It should not get below it because than we will just move sideways again or drop.

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So far the bulls are still holding it above that support, looks like a triangle in the making now, can always break both ways, but since it is being formed above that support i would be more likely to see a move upwards. It is a good sign that the bears have not pushed it down already

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Looks like the bulls are finally standing up this time. That triangle i showed seems to break upwards. Would be nice to see if we go towards the 6800 and see what happens there. Bulls still have allot of resistance to face, volume is still on the low side so these moves are not that significant. I still do not have a real feeling that everything is over already, no conviction yet.