AlanSantana

πŸ…±οΈ Final Warning: A 50% Capitulation Drop Will Lead To 30K

Short
AlanSantana Updated   
BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
This is the final warning and a friendly reminder; what we are about to witness is a "capitulation drop!"

This event is not your common drop or "normal correction," instead, it is a major event that only happens once every several years and you have front row sits for it.

βž– If we calculate the average price for Bitcoin's trading range in the past month and a half, we get a number around $66,600.

βž– If we divide this number by two, the 50% capitulation drop, we get a number in the range of $33,300.

πŸ‘‰ Here is my idea of how Bitcoin will behave around this number if a capitulation drop does show up in the coming days or next month; May 2024 ... But first, let me tell you that May is normally a bad month for Cryptocurrency when the action is coming out of a multiple-years price high β€”that is BTCUSDT. This is the situation in which we are at today.

Bitcoin is trading at the highest prices ever and has been on distribution for quite a while now, this phase is about to reach soon two months.

This phase can last, it can last 3 months, 4 months and sometimes even a total of 6 months before the capitulation actually happens but do not worry, it won't extend this much this time around because the halving just took place.

Boost this trade idea and we will comeback for frequent updates.

So it is likely that this is it, the capitulation happens now, this or next month, and this is what we've been waiting for to start the new phase, the new wave, the new entry, the bull-market that will really heat up late, very late 2024 and all throughout 2025. All throughout 2025 it will be super, it will be big, it will be great; it will be the opportunity we have been waiting for.

What are you doing now?

Is not really about Bitcoin going to $100,000 before a correction or whatnot or predicting what happens next; It is really about buying when prices are low, waiting patiently and selling high at the top of the bullish wave.

βž– The time to buy was last year or after the flush takes place.
βž– The time to sell will be next year, after the bull-run is on its way.

Whatever the market does in the mid to short-term, there are always clear signals before a reversal takes place.

Look at the chart; volume continues to drop, the RSI becomes weaker every day. The loss of bullish momentum is the major indicator we have predicting a bearish wave.

The action should go something like this: The initial drop fast and strong; remember that the initial move is bearish marketwide, period. Then this move stabilizes and the ALTSBTC and smaller Altcoins will recover first. Mid-size second and the biggest one last.

Bitcoin is likely to recover 30-50% from the flash crash bottom low and then start a slow climb. Something like hitting ~30K in a flash and then moving to around ~45K to produce very strong volatility but to never look back, straight up but very slow growth for months and months... Imagine 6-8 months within a bullish consolidation phase. Rising but slowly until in Q1/Q2 2025 when everything really starts to speed up.

πŸ‘‰ So only one bottom and that's it... We will have to rush if we want to buy BTC.

The rest we will have plenty of time, it will be wild, it will be fast, it will be crazy, exciting... For many it will be profitable for others it will be bad as loses can add up for the unprepared and can even multiply.

Prepare now or plan, if not by doing numbers at least try and visualize... What would you do if you knew Bitcoin would hit ~30K before hitting a new All-Time High?

Share in the comments section below... In 2025, Bitcoin will hit a new All-Time High!

Namaste.
Comment:
A rejection below EMA10/50 works as confirmation of a bearish continuation; this might be early to some people.

Chart:
βž– Notice today's session has an upper shadow.
βž– After trying to challenge EMA10/21 and EMA50 as resistance, BTCUSDT fails and starts to move lower.

Bitcoin moved back below EMA50 24-April and has been trading below.
As long as the trading happens below this level, here set at $64,560; the short-term bearish bias is super strong and confirmed.

πŸ‘‰ If Bitcoin moves and trades above, the bulls enter the picture in the very short-term; but staying below, as it is happening now, we continue to aim lower.

Namaste.
Comment:
Looking at the other side and maintaining and open perspective, Bitcoin continues bullish on the weekly timeframe.

One of the main indicators we look at for a potential change of trend, is based on the moving average of ten periods (EMA10). Bitcoin briefly moved below this level last week but ended up closing above it; see the chart:
βž– Weekly EMA10 now stands at $63,000.
πŸ‘‰ Bullish above; bearish below.

On top of this little fact we also have a bull flag as a major pattern on the chart.
All the action has been happening above EMA10 (seven weeks); bullish consolidation.

The chart signals are bullish, technically speaking.
The potential is bearish based on many signals that I already explained in previous trade ideas; volume, waves, market cycle, etc.

We continue bearish on Bitcoin and expect prices to move lower (lower low) before moving higher (new ATH).

Thank you for reading.

Namaste.
Comment:
πŸ…±οΈ Bitcoin Is Here To Stay!

While some people right now are calling for a major bear-market, the end of the bullish cycle and a crash toward $11,300; some are even making mention of $3,000 and even $1,000 ... No comment.

Wait! ...
Yes comment!

It is an actual impossibility for Bitcoin to hit below $15,000; don't you agree?

In fact, it is impossible for Bitcoin to even move below $20,000... In the worst case scenario we are looking at a price range of $21,000 - $24,000 as the worst case bottom scenario for a flash crash or black swan event.

Bitcoin is here to stay!

Bitcoin is the greatest invention since the Internet, for now, but it might actually turn out to be the best invention since money, actual cash.

In the age of information, technology; Bitcoin will be as important as your method of transport or even as your sacred and divine smart phone, that's how good Bitcoin is.

βž– We all agree that a bull-market takes place after the halving β€”yes?

βž– We all agree that a new All-Time High is always hit a year after the halving, don't we?

βž– And we might all agree that a correction, at least one, is always present before the long-term bullish cycle develops that ends in a bull-run, just as it happened back in 2021 and 2017...

Bitcoin is here to stay!!!

It doesn't matter what anybody say;
It doesn't matter how prices trade or move short-term;
It doesn't matter if the crash leads to 30 or 40K...
Bitcoin is here to stay!

Let's say it drops a little bit; yes, big deal... Those who really love and understand Bitcoin can simply hold/wait!

Thanks a lot for your continued support.

Namaste.
Comment:
βž– Bitcoin is now trading weekly below EMA10.
We are officially in bearish territory after four weeks of BTCUSDT closing red and a total of seven weeks of sideways action.


βž– Sideways price action can be considered neutral or bullish but the fact that the action is moving below EMA10 makes this a bearish development.

βž– If we look back to October 2023 on the weekly timeframe, BTCUSDT never trades below EMA10 weekly. As the bullish force is active, the action always remain above this indicator's line (green on this chart). Moving below signals that the bulls are losing momentum.

The week is early; the week is new though.

This is indeed a bearish development and Bitcoin is set to move lower but, this is just the start of the week. The action can as easily move back up above EMA10, the weekly session turn green and the entire seven weeks of sideways action become a very healthy consolidation phase. It would support perfectly a rise beyond 84,000 to maybe 90,000 or even 100K. That's the hopelessly greedy scenario that some are contemplating and let's hope it becomes true.

It can be a strong drop, a month or two, but we grow long-term.
No matter what happens in the short-term, winners are patient and know how to hold and wait; patiently of course.

Namaste.
Comment:
πŸ…±οΈ Bitcoin Monthly

Just as with the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin has gone red on the monthly.

βž– April 2024 is the first month red since August 2023.
βž– April closing red signals the end of the bullish wave.
βž– April closing red points to May being the correction month. The meat of the correction will happen in May 2024.

βž– After such strong growth (BTCUSD from Nov. 2022 through March 2024), we get at least another month red.
βž– Another month red can push prices below 40K; why below $42,000?
Because $42,000 is below Februarys low... Regardless of how far down it goes it will take a while to recover to the same prices we had back in March 2024, it can take months.

One needs to be strong to hold through the storm.

Namaste.
Comment:
Let's look at Bitcoin daily up close:
Notice the highlighted candles, this is out of the ordinary.

This type of action we are seeing, five days below EMA50 with small candles with small real bodies, all red; this is a type of bearish consolidation that will lead to a lower low.

If you look at past history, you don't see this type of action before a bullish breakout. For this to be bullish, it would need to happen above the EMAs. Since it is happening below, it is bearish; what do you think?

Namaste.
Comment:
We are witnessing a shakeout currently with an increase in volatility easily noted on the 4h timeframe. Here it is:
Notice the rejection above EMA50.
The 4h session still has 1.5 hours before closing but is now on the bearish side.
A confirmed rejection here confirms the ensuing lower low.

πŸ‘‰ If Bitcoin moves and closes above EMA50 (~64,000) on the 4h timeframe, the bulls have a chance see to a test of resistance before the next lower low takes place.

We continue bearish on Bitcoin but we are here to hold long-term. Buy and hold is our very own personal strategy.

Namaste.
Comment:
The 4h candle closed below EMA50;
The daily session is also turning bearish now, see it below:
BTCUSDT trading daily below EMA10/EMA21 and EMA50.
The bullish have no chance now based on short-term price action.

Notice how the trading volume is going toward $0.
When there is a massive drop in trading volume like the one we see here, it indicates a major move about to happen.

πŸ‘‰ This move is not like to push Bitcoin higher and hit 80 or 100K.

Higher prices are not likely we are more likely to see lower... But we are open to change; we are open to adapt and change, as soon as the market does the same.
Comment:
βž– Roger Ver (Bitcoin Jesus) charged with fraud in the USA.
βž– Changpeng ZhaoΒ (CZ) is being sentenced 4 months in prison.

These are the headlines today.

Maybe these are negative events and will push prices lower or maybe prices will continue lower because the chart says so, as it has been saying for weeks.

Here is the daily chart: β€”The action is happening below EMA50 and we have the biggest candle since 19-March.
β€”We have a volume breakout.
β€”Still a higher low (no new lows).

Here is the 4h chart: β€”It has been full red after the rejection at EMA50.
β€”Notice the trading volume and RSI.
β€”Trading volume is high (bearish) while the RSI is very low (bearish).

Namaste.
Comment:
The daily session is now closed and Bitcoin found support at exactly EMA100.

Notice how:
βž– Bitcoin moves to challenge EMA50 after breaking below EMA10.
βž– EMA100 after breaking below EMA50.
βž– EMA200 will be tested next, after EMA100 fails as support.

βž– EMA200 here sits around $52,000.
This coincides with price action support, the VRVP indicator and Fib. retracement support. All these levels point perfectly to 50-52K as the next target.

Some people are claiming to be buying already but the bearish continuation started only today. It would be wise to wait for things to settle, to allow time for this move to develop; patience is key.

Namaste.
Comment:
Bitcoin just broke down below EMA100 and hit the lowest price since late February.
We have a lower low now compared to early March.
This is only the start... See how the chart reveals plenty of room (space) for prices to move lower.
Comment:
πŸ…±οΈ Bitcoin Weekly | Quick Chart Update

One of the patterns that kept many people waiting for bearish confirmation, understandably, is the bull-flag. Here we have a bull-flag on the weekly timeframe, obviously a very strong pattern.


This pattern tends to be considered bullish and indeed it is, but patterns and signals cannot be considered in isolation. All signals and data points coming from the charts must be considered in combination with other signals for them to be of value to us.

While a bull-flag is considered a bullish continuation pattern, to us this is not the case when the market is trading at multi-year highs. Weakness is revealed after 8 weeks of sideways and 4 weeks consecutive closing red with lower highs; that's the context.

Right now we have a breakdown of the bullish flag and this is noted by the current candle moving below the lower trendline. The break below EMA10 is also there. Confirmation only happens once the week closes.

The fact that this is happening mid-week, at this point, is also a bearish signal.

Bearish, bearish, bearish, bearish... How far down will it really go?

πŸ‘‰ We are open to all scenarios... Bitcoin already lost $60,000 and $58,000 as support. Minimum we go to 50/52K next... But after this level, how far down will it go?

40K? 30k? 20K? 10K?

I don't know... Leave a comment with your guess.

Mine is as good as yours.

Namaste.
Comment:
πŸ…±οΈ Bitcoin Renko

Both the daily and weekly timeframes show a bearish trend already established using the Renko charting system.

β€”Bitcoin dailyβ€”

No charting system can reveal the actual trend better than this one.

β€”Bitcoin weeklyβ€”

Notice on the weekly chart, there isn't one red brick from November 2022 through March 2024 (the uptrend).

Now we have many red bricks (a downtrend).

It is a normal correction but it can last longer than what most people expect... It is better to be prepared. With this information you can make better decisions for your trading, or buying or just holding.

Thank you for reading.

Love the comments.
Thanks a lot for all the support.

Please, share more!!!
Let me know what you think... Open up...

You are truly appreciated!

Namaste.
Comment:
We are starting to see a "bounce" ... Bitcoin yesterday moved lower and managed to break below EMA100 but, overall this isn't extreme bearish action, seems pretty normal/weak/standard... Notice the volume:
πŸ‘‰ Bitcoin can indeed grow... The RSI is bearish, support just broke down and the bearish bias is now fully confirmed.

βž– Will it move up now and test EMA10 around $60,000-$62,000 or go straight down first?
βž– Will Bitcoin move up to a new All-Time High now?
βž– Is the correction over?

I know these are lots of questions but please, share your view with us in the comments section; it is impossible to predict will happen next.

It is impossible to predict but it is 100% possible to read the chart; the chart is saying not higher.

Namaste.
Comment:
One very important point to keep in mind is the duration of the correction.

When we use the general term "short-term" we are referring here to a period of 1-3 months. Everybody uses these terms differently but for us it means within 30-90 days.

This correction is a "short-term" move.
It should last only within 1-3 months.

Here the tricky and interesting points to note:

1) Bitcoin peaked 14-March 2024. While some people are realizing only now that Bitcoin is dropping, it has been in its bearish wave for 1.5 months (technically speaking).

2) The low can hit after 2 months or 3 months, etc. So the entire correction can last, say, 2.5 months (75 days). After the low is in, it can take 1-3 months for prices to move back up to current levels or even more... That's the interesting part.

While the correction "just started" for many, it has been going for almost two months.

While the entire correction phase should end fast, for many, it can last between 4-6 months, the entire period.

It can take 4-8 months from March 2024 until Bitcoin is back up to the same levels and challenging resistance in order to hit new All-Time Highs (2025).

All this information leads me to realize just one thing: The market offers endless opportunities and patience is key to win!

Namaste.
Comment:
Everything is going to crash including the Altcoins.

You've been warned.

πŸ‘‰ This is a friendly reminder for my readers, followers and supporters.

βž– Trade safe.
βž– Stay safe.
βž– Plan ahead.
βž– Do your research.
βž– Secure profits.
βž– Collect profits.
βž– Think long-term.

If you fail or make a mistake, remember perseverance; just try again.
Keep on trying and keep on doing it until you succeed.

Accept and learn from your mistakes, it is a sure way to win.

If you end up with a loss do not blame others, take full responsibility for your actions and in this way you can win on the next try. If we put the blame on others it is hard to correct our mistakes.

When we accept the mistake we make, we can change them... We can change.

Change can lead to growth and growth will lead to success.

I love my dearest of Soul friends!

Thank you for reading.

Namaste.
Comment:
When Bitcoin drops the initial reaction is negative across the entire market.

While many of the big Altcoins already completed their full correction, with a strong Bitcoin drop this would still push prices lower on all those pairs. The initial reaction can be strong all across but it can settle very quickly.

Many pairs already hit bottom and can grow even if Bitcoin drops, thinks ALTSBTC. Some of the ALTSUSDT can also move forward but only after the initial reaction and those that didn't produce a major bullish wave early 2024/late 2023.

Each chart/pair needs to be considered individually at this point.

I hope this answers your questions.
Comment:
πŸ“ˆ How To Know Which Altcoins Will Grow And Which Ones Will Move Lower | How Far Down Can A Pair Really Go? Altcoins Market Map Revealed!

Ok. There are tens of thousands of Altcoins trading pairs and this is the reason why it is obvious to consider each pair individually. There is no point in making generalisations because there are just too many of us.

Some people can have a 1-3% stop-loss while others can have a 20-30% stop-loss. A correction can affect very different an investor, a long-term trader, a day-trader, scalper, futures trader and so on.

Some will go down while others go up but there is a way to identify exactly at which point in the cycle each pair is currently at.

As always, I am an open book ... and I am sharing my experience, wisdom and knowledge with you. I am sending you LOVE! ... Know, that I love YOU!

Ok, let's get started!

βž– How do I know if the trading pair that I am interested in is likely to move lower or higher based on the current market situation?

βž– How do I know how far down a pair can go in this correction?

Let's start by saying that we can't know for sure and thus we are only going to be making some approximations. We look at the pairs that are more advanced within the current market cycle and whatever they are doing the rest will do the same. This is the method we used to find the main resistance levels on the way up for the previous bullish wave and the method I used to find the main support levels for the current bearish wave. It is the same method I will use to predict the next set of targets when the next bullish wave comes in a matter of months.

The majority of the Altcoins (we are talking about USDT pairs here), hit a low around September/October 2023. All these Altcoins went ahead to produce a very strong bullish wave. This wave peaked late 2023 for many, many Altcoins β€”some of the smaller ones that many of you are not looking at, while others continued through 2024 and present day.

Now, some pairs grew between 2-3X while others grew 10-15X.
The correction potential for those that grew between 10-15X is much stronger compared to those that grew only 2-3X. Cardano is a great example; while some other projects (like Solana) have to move much lower, Cardano doesn't have much lower to go or the bottom might be already in. Might be, there can be another drop but just to give you an example.

Another example is XRPUSDT.
This pair potentially bottomed while some others still have to go through the whole corrective phase. Now, and this is the hard part, many pairs are in-between their correction and these are the ones that I want to expose to you.

Say the bullish wave is over, Solana (SOLUSDT).

πŸ‘‰ The correction is likely to end around the 0.618 - 0.786 Fib. retracement range for the entire bullish wave.

We can be talking about a bullish wave that lasted 300 days or 30 days, makes no difference at this point.

We plot the "Fib Retracement" tool with the value '0' being the last high, this is the price that hit early 2024 or late 2023 for most pairs. The next value, '1', should be plotted at the last major low before the bullish wave; the bearish cycle bottom. Doing this will give you the Fibonacci retracement numbers for the entire bullish wave.

If you find a pair, using the weekly timeframe, where a wick or candle pierced through these levels, you can feel sure that the correction low is likely in. If it isn't in, then one more low and that's it.

This low won't necessarily lead to a straight up arrow as the next bullish jump. If it does, it would be a wave five of a bullish impulse leading to a major correction then higher low before the bull-market takes place.

Now, the general scenario that is likely to develop on most chart goes as follows: A drop in the above mentioned range, then an accumulation/consolidation phase forming kind of a cup pattern, can last 2-4 months and then the action starts going all the way through 2025 and new All-Time Highs.

The correction cannot be avoided.
We have a long-term triple top.

Leave a comment with your support, sending me some love and some questions.

Namaste.
Comment:
πŸ…±οΈ Bitcoin | Bullish Signals

Today is Sunday and the week is about to close. There is only 8 hours left on the weekly candle/session... We have some bullish signals to look at.

While we have a bearish bias, we continue to keep an open perspective and always follow the chart.
While we believe Bitcoin is moving lower, this is only because the chart says so. If the chart changes, we also change!

Here we have Bitcoin on the weekly timeframe:
β€”Trading above EMA10 = bullish.

Bitcoin moved back above EMA10 and has a long lower wick/shadow on the current session. This lower wick means that the bears sold, try to push prices lower but failed. The failure to push prices lower turns this into a bullish signal.

β€”Volume

Volume is good and rising. This is a bullish signal. Bitcoin closing above EMA10 weekly ($63,150), is positive for the bulls short-term.

β€”Support holds

This weekly session only wicked below the 4-March low. Closing above this level is a signal of strength.
(It would be extremely bearish if the market turns red and the week ends up closing below.)

β€”Green weekly close

If the week closes green, this is positive.
A negative close would be ultra-bearish but so far it is looking good.

There is still room for prices to fluctuate, as in the 65-74,000 price range but, these signals point to higher prices in the coming days... Do you agree?

Leave a comment with your thoughts...

Namaste.
Comment:
πŸ‘‰ Based on new data, an updated correction potential low price follows: 35,200 - 43,500.

βž– I no longer think it possible that Bitcoin can go below 30K.

All trades, the SHORTs, should be updated to take into account the new final target.
Comment:
πŸ…±οΈ Bitcoin Short-Term Move | 65,000 Or 68,000?

Bitcoin is now definitely bullish on the 4H timeframe;
By Bitcoin being bullish on this timeframe it means that prices are now moving higher; set to move higher, climbing up.

We can clearly see here how Bitcoin is trading above all moving averages with a bullish continuation pattern and bullish MACD.

πŸ‘‰ While this is all great, it allows more time for the Altcoins to grow, remember that this is a short-term move and massive resistance awaits below 70K.

πŸ‘‰ There can be very strong resistance around 67-70K and this range can end up resulting in a lower high compared to mid-March which can lead to a monthly lower low.

There is also the scenario where Bitcoin cannot grow beyond 65K, now, and decides to move straight down (blue arrows on the chart):
Namaste.
Comment:
πŸ…±οΈ Bitcoin For Beginners | Short-Term vs Long-Term

Sorry for creating confusion my dear readers, I shall explain.

The charts we read are based on different "timeframes." Each timeframe denotes a certain time horizon. The longer the timeframe, the more data becomes available for analysis on the chart.

The shorter the term, less data becomes available.

If we are looking at the 1H or 4H timeframes, these are considered short-term and whatever information is captured from these charts should only be considered in the short-term. Since each candle/session has only 1/4 hours, then the chart changes every 1/4 hours. But, if we look at the weekly timeframe, this we call long-term as it takes an entire week before the chart can change.

So, bullish short-term, bullish mid-term and bullish long-term.

There is bearish potential short-term for a major correction to develop which is already in the chart.
Bitcoin closed red for more than 4 weeks and has been ranging with swings being 20% each. A 20% move counter-trend can be defined as either a retrace or correction.

The thesis here is that before the next higher high, there can be a new lower low compared to the most recent low, that is, Bitcoin can move to the low 50Ks or lower... But things can change.

Whenever Bitcoin is trading now above $70,000 to $72,000, this is considered bullish.
βž– If Bitcoin moves above $74,000, this is ultra-bullish.
βž– If Bitcoin trades below $70,000, this is bearish confirmed short-term because Bitcoin is moving within a lower high after the March 2024 All-Time High.

Your comments are a true support.

Thanks a lot for the amazing, honest and open criticism, it helps and inspires me to write such posts.

Keep them coming.
Give me more!

Namaste.
Comment:
πŸ…±οΈ An ABC Correction Can't Be Over!

An ABC correction has four main points: The start of wave A (zero), wave A, wave B and wave C.

Regardless of the type of correction; flat or irregular, we only get four main points for the move to be completed.

βž– The end of wave A can be a higher low compared to the end of wave C.
βž– The end of wave B can be either a higher high compared to the ATH or a lower higher. This determines if the correction is either regular or irregular, but it doesn't change the fact that two main reactions are needed on the lower side of the equation for a correction to be complete.

Complex?
Hard to understand?
What do you mean?

Let's look at the chart:
Trading volume continues to drop.
Notice how one final drop is still needed for a classic ABC correction to be completed. We need two reactions on the lower end of the wave pattern (A & C). We are missing wave C.

πŸ‘‰ Everything is set to crash including the Altcoins.

You've been warned!

This is a friendly reminder and intended only for your convenience.

Bitcoin will soon be 2 full months in the red. This will only lead the market to produce the final correction low and once the low is in we can start buying to enjoy the bullish rally; sustained long-term growth (2025 & late 2024).

Namaste.
Comment:
πŸ…±οΈ Another Rejection, This Time 4H

We have another rejection on the 4H timeframe and again, the day is pretty young; half-way through.

So the daily candle/session starts green and on the second half of the day (starting ten minutes from now), it turns red.

This is can be seen here with the 4H timeframe (you can check the daily yourself but you will notice an upper wick on today's candle, same as yesterday):

Four days green of a small bounce, producing a lower high just leading to straight down... bearish confirmation & continuation...
Comment:
Support is being challenged short-term (1h time interval)

It seems this week and next week will be very important, the distribution period is leading to such.

I am still in doubt if the distribution phase will end now, this/next week, or if it will last another two months (4 months total for the bottom low to be set)... Very hard to say, don't you agree?

Looking at the trading volume on this chart, we can see it stalled completed; this can be interpreted as the market reaching an equilibrium.

A drop in volume is also indicative of a decline in momentum.
The more often a support level is challenged, the weaker it becomes.

Support continues to be challenged on a daily basis.
Support is becoming weaker...

πŸ‘‰ Bearish below 70K.
πŸ‘‰ Bullish above 72/74K ...

Keeping it simple.

Thanks a lot for your continued support.

Namaste.
Comment:
πŸ…±οΈ Bitcoin Weekly Update

Remember the weekly timeframe?
Bitcoin is now trading below EMA10!

Last time we were tracking this indicator, Bitcoin moved to hit a new lower low but recovered and closed above EMA10 by the end of the week. We have a bias at this point, a bearish bias but, if the chart changes we must adapt and change because our method is based on the chart.

As Bitcoin trades above EMA10 weekly, we remain bearish but cautious because this is a bullish development. And so, we would say to simplify things for our followers, readers and supporters: "If Bitcoin trades above 72/74K = bullish. If Bitcoin trades below 70K = bearish/SHORT."

βž– It is the first time that Bitcoin will move below EMA10 weekly in more than 8 months.

βž– It is the first time that Bitcoin will move below EMA10 weekly after a multi-year high in more than 2.5 years; a long time.

I am sharing this to say that this is a major bearish development and a full confirmation of the major crash that is about to take place.

As soon as EMA10 is lost as support, the next level opens up.

The next support target is EMA21 but we will skip it and go to EMA50 which sits at $46,000. So there will be a stop at the low 50Ks but this level is also likely to fast break.

The final level here is MA200 sitting at $34,000.

We can use Fib. retracements, price action, moving averages or any method we want, everything is pointing toward the same range in which we had a long accumulation phase in 2023, the one that lasted many months. This is the level/range that needs to be tested as support before Bitcoin can grow beyond $100,000+.

The fact that it was so hard for Bitcoin to break below 64-62K, means that this level will be a strong resistance on the way up. It will take some time to comeback but we will comeback and go even higher... Bitcoin is likely to trade above 70,000 in early 2025 and above 150,000 by May 2025.

Namaste.
Comment:
Based on current price action, Bitcoin is now set to move toward $50,000 within 72 hours.
Can happen within 3 hours just as it can take 3 days... But the bearish move is on now!

We had plenty of time to prepare... Everybody had time to decide either to sell or hold but now, times is up!
Comment:
πŸ…±οΈ We Are Not Out Of The Danger Zone Yet!

When comparing today's situation with 2016, in relation to Bitcoin's halving event and the ensuing correction; let me tell you that we are not out of the "danger-zone" just yet, it is too early.

The danger zone, based on past history/data, lasts between 9-12 weeks after the halving, we are only four weeks into the current halving.

While in the past, 2016, a correction followed just a few weeks after the event, this doesn't mean that it needs to happen now in exactly the same way.

The projected recovery year in 2023 based on a comparison of the action we had in 2019, signaled the end of a bullish wave in Q3 2023 with prices between 50-60K, the end result was a bullish wave but the duration was quite different compared to past price action, it lasted so much more and prices went much higher than projected.

So just because the correction didn't happen right away, it doesn't mean that we are in the green just yet.

Just keep in mind the basics, Bitcoin is trading weekly below EMA10.

πŸ‘‰ As long as Bitcoin trades below 72/74K, stay bearish. We are not out of the danger zone... Yet!

Thank you for reading.

Namaste.

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