I believe we have reached wave 1 and we are now seeing a price correction to wave 2.
**** Hence all the details in this post are for a correction justification and their corresponding targets ****
The target of wave 2 is not an easy one to estimate because many areas make sense.
I believe 10200 range is realistic and any lower, will become a scenario.
A pullback of 20 % is acceptable based on historical price action, where price goes to the 21 Daily .
Here are the reasons:
a) It was always been one of the possible targets of this trend ($12500) based on Monthly Resistance and this area back last year, a lot of and levels;
b) Many of the ALTS have shown to pullback hard and are unlikely to make further highs for this run. My posts on LINKBTC , KAVABTC , LENDBTC, all show price action over extended with parabolic endings;
c) The pullback has gone below (11800 to) 12K and has closed underneath this level on the daily, meaning the daily candle has closed ;
d) If you look at my weekly chart, you will note ever so slightly that it looking like a at the 3 year , no coincidence; Also a wick. We need to see the week finish;
e) You can say we are due for a pullback, but a small pullback and as my previous post showed, the other markets are doing well;
f) BTC dominance hit a key level and its continuing to rise;
The pullback target I have 3 possibilities for a scenario:
a) The weekly 21 (green ribbon = 21 and 34 );
b) 10K to 10200 based on the top of the 3 month structure it took to break, equates to 0.5 fib level;
c) 10800 to 11050, strong bounce area as its the monthly as well as the 3 year resistance, which later became support. I see it unlikely to hold but either way a good entry spot as its just above the 3 year .;
These targets were stated in previous posts.
If we go below 10200, then I will turn slightly , just to fill the gap.
[Note: we might have that possibility of the gap at 9200 filled with a quick dip at some point]
I do feel that we can go below 10K but is it now, or after we hit 12800 or 13500, then go and close the gap for the last time. Is the gap necessary, who knows.
One of my macro chart gives justification and confluence at the gap level and the 3 year juncture as support. At some point, we will go for the weekly 21 .
Anyway, these are my thoughts and below are some other charts at Macro structure level and how we will play this out.
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Note: The div on the , and it seems it was the clue.
Why was 12500 the target, hitting the weekly resistance WR which equated to the trend resistance as well.
Bottom target with grey gap
Macro structure hypothesis, note where the 21 equates to as BTC prices drop
MY PREVIOUS POST
I am still in the belief of a correction rather than consolidation.
The blue is the 100 SMA above the 200 SMA. Its possible but how likely, at this point its too early to say, until we get lower and see what the indicators are doing.
The light green is the 200 EMA (along with the other doted ema's of 21, 34, 50).
Indeed this will correlate to BTC also taking a move down.