BTC (Y20.P4.E01).Price Action, ABC Correction

Hi All,

I believe we have reached wave 1 and we are now seeing a price correction to wave 2.
**** Hence all the details in this post are for a correction ABC justification and their corresponding targets ****

The target of wave 2 is not an easy one to estimate because many areas make sense.
I believe 10200 range is realistic and any lower, will become a bearish scenario.
A pullback of 20 % is acceptable based on historical price action, where price goes to the 21 Daily EMA.

Here are the reasons:
a) It was always been one of the possible targets of this trend ($12500) based on Monthly Resistance and this area back last year, a lot of volatility and levels;
b) Many of the ALTS have shown to pullback hard and are unlikely to make further highs for this run. My posts on LINKBTC, KAVABTC, LENDBTC, all show price action over extended with parabolic endings;
c) The pullback has gone below (11800 to) 12K and has closed underneath this level on the daily, meaning the daily candle has closed bearish;
d) If you look at my weekly chart, you will note ever so slightly that it looking like a shooting star at the 3 year trend line, no coincidence; Also a wick. We need to see the week finish;
e) You can say we are due for a pullback, but a small pullback and as my previous post showed, the other markets are doing well;
f) BTC dominance hit a key level and its continuing to rise;

The pullback target I have 3 possibilities for a bullish scenario:
a) The weekly 21 EMA (green ribbon = 21 and 34 ema);
b) 10K to 10200 based on the top of the 3 month structure it took to break, equates to 0.5 fib level;
c) 10800 to 11050, strong bounce area as its the monthly resistance area as well as the 3 year trend line resistance, which later became support. I see it unlikely to hold but either way a good entry spot as its just above the 3 year trend line.;

These targets were stated in previous posts.

If we go below 10200, then I will turn slightly bearish, just to fill the CME gap.

I do feel that we can go below 10K but is it now, or after we hit 12800 or 13500, then go and close the CME gap for the last time. Is the CME gap necessary, who knows.

One of my macro chart gives justification and confluence at the CME gap level and the 3 year trend line juncture as support. At some point, we will go for the weekly 21 EMA.

Anyway, these are my thoughts and below are some other charts at Macro structure level and how we will play this out.

Please give me a like or tick for this post.

Regards,
S.Sari

Up close

Note: The bearish div on the RSI , and it seems it was the clue.

Why was 12500 the target, hitting the weekly resistance WR which equated to the RSI trend resistance as well.

Bottom target with grey cme gap


Macro structure hypothesis, note where the 21 EMA equates to as BTC prices drop

MY PREVIOUS POST

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If this holds then the bulls are still in charge.

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Until confirmed, we will need to use these key levels to determine if this action is correction or sideways movement (another consolidation prior to 12800 to 13K).
I am still in the belief of a correction rather than consolidation.

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Some say the 200 SMA or 200 EMA could be tested. Lets have a look on the CME BTC chart.
The blue is the 100 SMA above the 200 SMA. Its possible but how likely, at this point its too early to say, until we get lower and see what the indicators are doing.
The light green is the 200 EMA (along with the other doted ema's of 21, 34, 50).

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Here we go as to why BTC will pullback. Looking at the SP500, I see a daily BEARISH Div. about to play out.
Indeed this will correlate to BTC also taking a move down.

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I also can see the AB hit 2 levels, 1 is the wedge underbelly and the other 12040 range.

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Crunch time

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