BTC - the most probable scenario at this moment
BTC really surprised me with his strenght, I didn´t expect that last huge move up, so once again, being contrarian was the most profitable approach to this market, because everybody (including me) was expecting downside coming.
But still I am like 90% sure, that we will see prices like 5000 USD during this year once again. BTC is overbought on all time frames, this whole move from 3700 to 9400 really looks only like some ABC bullish cycle, it doesn´t have any aspects of healthy uptrend, I don´t see there any bullish 5-waves moves.
On the other hand, overall sentiment is still pretty much in fear, because of coronavirus, people are not in LONG positions on bitmex, as they were 3 months ago on same price leves and that´s very, very bullish for price.
Also halving will come into play and I am not sure, that whales will be pushing price up, because many people will start invest in crypto because of halving and because of last few bullish months.
So overall, I think price will continue up for some time, we may even hit 10k, but if this triangle is really valid, then price MUST NOT get above 14 000. Amount of longs is still too low, so we probably need more upside to make people bullish, but eventually price should drop at some point to levels like 5000-4000 to finish last "e" wave in this huge, potential triangle.
And then finally MOON :)
But still I am like 90% sure, that we will see prices like 5000 USD during this year once again. BTC is overbought on all time frames, this whole move from 3700 to 9400 really looks only like some ABC bullish cycle, it doesn´t have any aspects of healthy uptrend, I don´t see there any bullish 5-waves moves.
On the other hand, overall sentiment is still pretty much in fear, because of coronavirus, people are not in LONG positions on bitmex, as they were 3 months ago on same price leves and that´s very, very bullish for price.
Also halving will come into play and I am not sure, that whales will be pushing price up, because many people will start invest in crypto because of halving and because of last few bullish months.
So overall, I think price will continue up for some time, we may even hit 10k, but if this triangle is really valid, then price MUST NOT get above 14 000. Amount of longs is still too low, so we probably need more upside to make people bullish, but eventually price should drop at some point to levels like 5000-4000 to finish last "e" wave in this huge, potential triangle.
And then finally MOON :)
Comment:
In eliott wave theory, waves in triangles should be count as ABCDE, sorry for bad assignment as 12345.