🅱️ Bitcoin Monthly | Keeping It Simple

In the month of March 2024 Bitcoin is likely to end red.

Bitcoin opened the month at $61,150.
Closing below this level would produce a red candle/session.

What is the chart saying?

➖ Bitcoin closed green for 6 months straight, which is great on a bullish note but revealing as well. Bitcoin never grows this much before the halving, only after the event or in bull-run years.

Seeing the massive growth Bitcoin produced through 2023 and early 2024, a correction becomes normal and expected.

The long upper wick/shadow on the candles support this statement.

The upper wick reflects the battle between bulls and bears, down and up.

The month started with the bulls buying strongly, pushing prices higher and producing a strong big candle. As the bears start to sell, the candle's real body shrinks and only a wick is left behind.

This is the reason why the upper wick is a bearish signal, because it means that selling is taking place.
As per the text books, "confirmation is needed," or so they say, but textbooks don't trade.
If you wait for confirmation it will be extremely late.

For example, Bitcoin peaked at $74,000 and confirmation can only come once the month closes.
A textbook confirmation would be a bearish close, so below $61,150.
But the month can close at $59,000, $58,000 or even $55,000. Once the drop starts, the market will not wait for people to confirm to continue being, so we can use lower timeframes or additional signals to support/confirm what we already know.

From $74,000 to $58,000 that's more than a 20% drop.

Anyway, when the market is set to rise it tends to produce no upper wick, as shown on the chart (green).
When the market is set to retrace, we will likely end with the inverted hammer, Doji or Shooting Star candlestick pattern.

Thank you for reading.

Namaste.