Fundamentals vs. technicals
In a November lame attempt, I was looking at technicals and simple long term moving averages. A slow break to the 5-6K range seemed be a likely outcome.
Revising and learning from the events of the past few week, my expectation is that this break lower seems to be postponed until further fundamental news.
(Check and press play on the chart in my previous, now updated post.)
What happened?
We hear Trump doesn't like markets going down. It seems he's been taking a careful look at the weekly BTC charts (and that of gold, other safe heaven assets and oil too...) and gave a small bump. The #IranVsUs #MissileDiplomacy pushed all safe heaven assets up as expected. BTC moved up based on these fundamentals as any other safe heaven asset. No move to the 5-6K range in visible sight.
So what now?
I took a closer look at daily's on BTCUSDT on Binance (remember their prices are about $12-21 above a median spot market - don't ask me why, maybe a liquidity premium). The parabolic ranges reveal a strong possibility of a move the highly awaited 9100-9200. There are so many forecasts on Tradingview eying this target that the sheer sentiment (maybe even bids already made?) show this as a strong probability. But plain vanilla RSI and stochastic RSI both show an overbought few days with the 8600-8800 range.
I see two rational alternatives for BTCUSDT:
Now I would give a 60-65% probability to the second possibility.
Ladies (I hope there are more cyrpto ladies now :) ) and gentlemen, make your orders and don't forget your stops, so another fundamental even doesn't surprise you.
---- and comments & likes are highly appreciated, I'd like to gain some reputation points too :)
In a November lame attempt, I was looking at technicals and simple long term moving averages. A slow break to the 5-6K range seemed be a likely outcome.
Revising and learning from the events of the past few week, my expectation is that this break lower seems to be postponed until further fundamental news.
(Check and press play on the chart in my previous, now updated post.)
What happened?
We hear Trump doesn't like markets going down. It seems he's been taking a careful look at the weekly BTC charts (and that of gold, other safe heaven assets and oil too...) and gave a small bump. The #IranVsUs #MissileDiplomacy pushed all safe heaven assets up as expected. BTC moved up based on these fundamentals as any other safe heaven asset. No move to the 5-6K range in visible sight.
So what now?
I took a closer look at daily's on BTCUSDT on Binance (remember their prices are about $12-21 above a median spot market - don't ask me why, maybe a liquidity premium). The parabolic ranges reveal a strong possibility of a move the highly awaited 9100-9200. There are so many forecasts on Tradingview eying this target that the sheer sentiment (maybe even bids already made?) show this as a strong probability. But plain vanilla RSI and stochastic RSI both show an overbought few days with the 8600-8800 range.
I see two rational alternatives for BTCUSDT:
- hovering between 8600-8800 for 9-14 days until these momentum indicators retreat to their mid levels;
- a shift lower to 8400-8500 in the next few days, so a more radical move up can begin
Now I would give a 60-65% probability to the second possibility.
Ladies (I hope there are more cyrpto ladies now :) ) and gentlemen, make your orders and don't forget your stops, so another fundamental even doesn't surprise you.
---- and comments & likes are highly appreciated, I'd like to gain some reputation points too :)
