Bitcoin (BTC) - when will we see a pullback?
Bitcoin has been making bullish moves, and I have been looking for signs of a pullback and when it might happen. Buyers have broken the global trend and are trying to hold that level, but it feels like now would be a healthly time for a pull back or consolidation. We have appox 2 hours left on this 4H candle and if it finishes red, depending on what volumes we see between now and then, it will very likely break the dynamic OBV trend, which is a good sign that a pull back is coming. Other things pointing to pull back: MACD is showing a negative divergence, RSI is overbought and similarly showing negative divergence.
Positive signs on the bull side of things are that OBV is bullish on the 4H and has clearly broken from the primary OBV trend I have mapped from the start of this reversal. And, is above the horizontal key level (in orange on OBV 4H) set by previous peak sept 6, showing a clear bullish divergence. Yet, the OBV on daily is contrary, and showing a bearish divergence with Sept 6 peak. It is worth remembering what happened Sept 7, with the strong retrace from there.
For me signs of a healthy pullback or consolidation would try stay above the orange key level on OBV, attempt to consolidate above the global trend, or at least remain above the previous 48k pivot, while the RSI resets at around the 35 - the price maintaining above that level while the RSI reset would produce a hidden bullish divergence and good sign of continuation.
A deeper pull back would see the OBV retrace to the red trend and price break below that 48k, possibly as deep as the 44-45k range. This would still produce a higher lower structure (We saw a similar deeper retrace at the end of July). Yet, would look a lot like a double top at this point and that would not seem at all healthy. For this reason I think there will be a lot of effort to keeping pushing higher from this point, remaining above those key levels. and squeezing the previous monthly high
For now I will be watching how this 4hr candle finishes, and if it finishes red and breaks that OBV dynamic trend I will be taking some profit and following closely the moves from there. If it continues to hold, it's possible we see a general consolidation and trend up like we did on the 25th July
All speculation and forward planning at this point. Will be following the price action closely
Positive signs on the bull side of things are that OBV is bullish on the 4H and has clearly broken from the primary OBV trend I have mapped from the start of this reversal. And, is above the horizontal key level (in orange on OBV 4H) set by previous peak sept 6, showing a clear bullish divergence. Yet, the OBV on daily is contrary, and showing a bearish divergence with Sept 6 peak. It is worth remembering what happened Sept 7, with the strong retrace from there.
For me signs of a healthy pullback or consolidation would try stay above the orange key level on OBV, attempt to consolidate above the global trend, or at least remain above the previous 48k pivot, while the RSI resets at around the 35 - the price maintaining above that level while the RSI reset would produce a hidden bullish divergence and good sign of continuation.
A deeper pull back would see the OBV retrace to the red trend and price break below that 48k, possibly as deep as the 44-45k range. This would still produce a higher lower structure (We saw a similar deeper retrace at the end of July). Yet, would look a lot like a double top at this point and that would not seem at all healthy. For this reason I think there will be a lot of effort to keeping pushing higher from this point, remaining above those key levels. and squeezing the previous monthly high
For now I will be watching how this 4hr candle finishes, and if it finishes red and breaks that OBV dynamic trend I will be taking some profit and following closely the moves from there. If it continues to hold, it's possible we see a general consolidation and trend up like we did on the 25th July
All speculation and forward planning at this point. Will be following the price action closely
Last candle closed with the pivot on the dynamic OBV trend. this next close will determine if the trend breaks (it looks broken in this image but that is because the candle is currently red, if it closes green it will pivot up and we continue to crawl up)