In this TA I would like to draw your attention to the MACD Monthly.
It can be seen that a strong short signal was generated on January 22 and it will be months before the signal turns bullish again.
For this reason I expect that in September we will reach 10776.59 -10666.39 where I then placed 2 paths, the blue one and the red one.
Both options are valid.
Blue path points to January 23 low and targets 6412.14.
The red path allows for 2 lower lows:
1. @4103.95 January '23
2. @3398.4 April 24
All circles are potential take profit stations.
The red variant would lead to an SHS formation which, barring a monthly close below 3300, would trigger strong bullish momentum in Q2 '24 and surge above 100k.
The next target is 18184.99.
I wish you success.
It can be seen that a strong short signal was generated on January 22 and it will be months before the signal turns bullish again.
For this reason I expect that in September we will reach 10776.59 -10666.39 where I then placed 2 paths, the blue one and the red one.
Both options are valid.
Blue path points to January 23 low and targets 6412.14.
The red path allows for 2 lower lows:
1. @4103.95 January '23
2. @3398.4 April 24
All circles are potential take profit stations.
The red variant would lead to an SHS formation which, barring a monthly close below 3300, would trigger strong bullish momentum in Q2 '24 and surge above 100k.
The next target is 18184.99.
I wish you success.
Comment:
Mai 8
Comment:
Jan 30
Comment:
Jan 9
Comment:
Here black ABC correction showing that the C is 5-wave and can fall low.
Comment:
18184.99 DONE!
Comment:
If you can, look at a chart of 2 year candlesticks.
In the 2-year candle chart we see that the BITCOIN has left a specific development in a 2-year rhythm.
This means that 2-year candles look like this:
--- 2018 & 2019 was red candle.
--- 2020 & 2021 was green candle.
It could be that now 2022 & 2023 will leave a red candle again.
This assumption would be lifted if BTC would sustainably overcome the opening price on January 1, 2022 @46214.37 and stay above it (see blue line above).
In the first quarter of '22 no month closed above which is another sign of weakness.
Hence the short momentum.
Until the price clears the @46214.37 price mark, the bottom 2 lines are the next targets.
As I mentioned above, the Monthly MACD short signal is very strong and it will be a few months before it turns bullish again.
I would add that looking at the line chart is very helpful as it shows how the price fell out of the wedge.
In the 2-year candle chart we see that the BITCOIN has left a specific development in a 2-year rhythm.
This means that 2-year candles look like this:
--- 2018 & 2019 was red candle.
--- 2020 & 2021 was green candle.
It could be that now 2022 & 2023 will leave a red candle again.
This assumption would be lifted if BTC would sustainably overcome the opening price on January 1, 2022 @46214.37 and stay above it (see blue line above).
In the first quarter of '22 no month closed above which is another sign of weakness.
Hence the short momentum.
Until the price clears the @46214.37 price mark, the bottom 2 lines are the next targets.
As I mentioned above, the Monthly MACD short signal is very strong and it will be a few months before it turns bullish again.
I would add that looking at the line chart is very helpful as it shows how the price fell out of the wedge.
Comment:
Do you see the 2 weekly candles in upper ellipse?
This is exactly what the 2 upcoming weekly candles should look like... 2 times lower low...
All bottom lines are TP levels.
MACD Weekly = short
This is exactly what the 2 upcoming weekly candles should look like... 2 times lower low...
All bottom lines are TP levels.
MACD Weekly = short
Comment:
Do you see the 3 month candles in the upper blue ellipse?
Ideally, this is exactly how the 3 upcoming monthly candles should look like... 3 times lower low...
In September and October there should be green candle.
November will run higher than October, but the high should be shorted and held until the low is formed in January '23 (lower red ellipse).
That's the language of the candles as I see it at the moment... However, one must never rule out that there may be some sudden surprises on the world scene that strongly influence TA.
Ideally, this is exactly how the 3 upcoming monthly candles should look like... 3 times lower low...
In September and October there should be green candle.
November will run higher than October, but the high should be shorted and held until the low is formed in January '23 (lower red ellipse).
That's the language of the candles as I see it at the moment... However, one must never rule out that there may be some sudden surprises on the world scene that strongly influence TA.
Comment:
Intraday and H4 = long above 20574, short below
If it remains within the small trend channel with the next H4 candle, then blue path.
If he falls out of the canal, then red path.
MACD = H4 = still bullish
If it remains within the small trend channel with the next H4 candle, then blue path.
If he falls out of the canal, then red path.
MACD = H4 = still bullish
Comment:
BTC is in a minor abc correction right now.
August should hit 26574.53 and a strong bounce down would indicate the end of black wave 4.
However, this wave 4 would still have enough space until 29919.2.
CONCLUSION:
unless 29919 is sustainably breached, there is a strong possibility that any next weekly close below 19942.21 will lead to the following deeper targets:
1)15957
2) 13791-13028.83
3) 12468 (major support), below follows
4) 10666.62
colored the location of each phase to see that we are now in the gray zone where both bullish and bearish moves can be expected.
Green = bullish or support zone
Yellow = possible turn
Orang = soon to be the end of the whole corrective formation ABC.
Red = resistance or, contrary to expectations, large losses.
Weekly
August should hit 26574.53 and a strong bounce down would indicate the end of black wave 4.
However, this wave 4 would still have enough space until 29919.2.
CONCLUSION:
unless 29919 is sustainably breached, there is a strong possibility that any next weekly close below 19942.21 will lead to the following deeper targets:
1)15957
2) 13791-13028.83
3) 12468 (major support), below follows
4) 10666.62
colored the location of each phase to see that we are now in the gray zone where both bullish and bearish moves can be expected.
Green = bullish or support zone
Yellow = possible turn
Orang = soon to be the end of the whole corrective formation ABC.
Red = resistance or, contrary to expectations, large losses.
Weekly
Comment:
Look up!
On June 19, I wrote:
"November will run higher than October, but the high should be shorted and held until the low is formed in January '23 (lower red ellipse)."
Now I've updated the position of the ellipses a bit, but the meaning remains as mentioned above almost 5 months ago.
*** 15975.49 was reached!
December will probably have the same amplitude as October, January as September, after that we'll see...
The next destination is @13816.08.
If daily candle closes below then one might expect 10778.22 (dotted red arrow applicable to February '23).
Note MACD as it is short heavy on a monthly basis.
Conclusion: it will take months until there is a bullish signal again.
On June 19, I wrote:
"November will run higher than October, but the high should be shorted and held until the low is formed in January '23 (lower red ellipse)."
Now I've updated the position of the ellipses a bit, but the meaning remains as mentioned above almost 5 months ago.
*** 15975.49 was reached!
December will probably have the same amplitude as October, January as September, after that we'll see...
The next destination is @13816.08.
If daily candle closes below then one might expect 10778.22 (dotted red arrow applicable to February '23).
Note MACD as it is short heavy on a monthly basis.
Conclusion: it will take months until there is a bullish signal again.
Comment:
Since 13970 is a support, here is an alternative:
To complete the red (C) on a weekly basis, BTC just needs another lower bottom in the coming week.
From a purely technical perspective, a bullish reaction would be warranted in the 13970-15957 area.
To complete the red (C) on a weekly basis, BTC just needs another lower bottom in the coming week.
From a purely technical perspective, a bullish reaction would be warranted in the 13970-15957 area.