Beeeetcoin!!! The Past, Present, and Future. Moon soon?
TLDR: We either are going up, or going down, but before that we might go down if we don’t go up, for sure. Boooyah!
Good evening traders, I hope you’ve had a terrific weekend with your loved ones.
BTC has taken quite a stumble after getting denied at the 200 day MA. Whenever BTC stumbles like this, I try to take a break to look at the big picture to see where we’re at and where we’re heading
As you can see here, we’re currently in cycle III of this first super cycle for BTC. A supporting trend line with multiple supports from 2012 to 2013 became the resistance for BTC when it hit the 20K mark back in December. You can also see that BTC is clearly respecting a lot of levels in our fib channel with its various pitstops, which are too many to highlight.
Within this cycle III, we have a wave (iii) that came close to being 34 times the size of wave (i), with 34 being a fib number. We may have just wrapped up wave (iv) back in February at 5800 and might be working on wave (v) of III if (iv) is in fact done.
So the main questions are: is (iv) done and where are we in (v)?
Looking closer at (iv) we can see that it has retraced more than 0.618 of (iii) which should have been expected given (iii) was way over extended. Wave (iv) had a time period of roughly 51 days which is close to wave (ii) of 47 days. Further more, it’s a standard ABC zig zag with the C leg being 1.272 of 1. With those basic evidence, we can somewhat conclude that (iv) could be completed unless it reveals itself later to be a WXY combo that could take us down to the 3000 range.
Right now, this WXY combo seems like it could be a possibility since the 200MA support became resistance. South is a real possibility if we start losing supports from here. First at the 100 day MA at 8900, then a key support at 8460, and a confirmed down trend below 6500.
BUT… BUT BUUUUT
As long as we haven’t broken any supports, lets assume that (iv) is done. We have a solid 5 waves up for i of (v) with a truncated fifth wave and a valid 3 waves down for wave ii that corrects 90% of wave i. 90% is a very healthy correction for ii which signifies a violent wave iii to come. Think sling shot, the further the second wave goes back, the longer the third wave will sling shot forward. We should expect this third wave to be at least 3 to 5 times the size of first with targets at 24K or 35K.
Now, let’s get to the nitty gritty and look at our 4 hour chart. We need to know what needs to happen to validate our wave counts and where we can fail miserably.
Here you can see that we’re working on the first wave of wave v where (2) corrected roughly 90% of (1) and (3) was exactly 3 times the size of 1. With that said, we can expect wave (5) to be near the 5x mark of the same projection. In this case, the 5x projection is a confluence with the Feb and March double top at $11600 which makes it even more favorable target.
Another valid count is to disregard the 5x projection and consider wave (5) as done when it last got denied at the 200 day MA. If that is the case, we should start looking for clues for a 5 waves down to signify the beginning of a down trend, which in this case we also have:
Good evening traders, I hope you’ve had a terrific weekend with your loved ones.
BTC has taken quite a stumble after getting denied at the 200 day MA. Whenever BTC stumbles like this, I try to take a break to look at the big picture to see where we’re at and where we’re heading
As you can see here, we’re currently in cycle III of this first super cycle for BTC. A supporting trend line with multiple supports from 2012 to 2013 became the resistance for BTC when it hit the 20K mark back in December. You can also see that BTC is clearly respecting a lot of levels in our fib channel with its various pitstops, which are too many to highlight.
Within this cycle III, we have a wave (iii) that came close to being 34 times the size of wave (i), with 34 being a fib number. We may have just wrapped up wave (iv) back in February at 5800 and might be working on wave (v) of III if (iv) is in fact done.
So the main questions are: is (iv) done and where are we in (v)?
Looking closer at (iv) we can see that it has retraced more than 0.618 of (iii) which should have been expected given (iii) was way over extended. Wave (iv) had a time period of roughly 51 days which is close to wave (ii) of 47 days. Further more, it’s a standard ABC zig zag with the C leg being 1.272 of 1. With those basic evidence, we can somewhat conclude that (iv) could be completed unless it reveals itself later to be a WXY combo that could take us down to the 3000 range.
Right now, this WXY combo seems like it could be a possibility since the 200MA support became resistance. South is a real possibility if we start losing supports from here. First at the 100 day MA at 8900, then a key support at 8460, and a confirmed down trend below 6500.
BUT… BUT BUUUUT
As long as we haven’t broken any supports, lets assume that (iv) is done. We have a solid 5 waves up for i of (v) with a truncated fifth wave and a valid 3 waves down for wave ii that corrects 90% of wave i. 90% is a very healthy correction for ii which signifies a violent wave iii to come. Think sling shot, the further the second wave goes back, the longer the third wave will sling shot forward. We should expect this third wave to be at least 3 to 5 times the size of first with targets at 24K or 35K.
Now, let’s get to the nitty gritty and look at our 4 hour chart. We need to know what needs to happen to validate our wave counts and where we can fail miserably.
Here you can see that we’re working on the first wave of wave v where (2) corrected roughly 90% of (1) and (3) was exactly 3 times the size of 1. With that said, we can expect wave (5) to be near the 5x mark of the same projection. In this case, the 5x projection is a confluence with the Feb and March double top at $11600 which makes it even more favorable target.
Another valid count is to disregard the 5x projection and consider wave (5) as done when it last got denied at the 200 day MA. If that is the case, we should start looking for clues for a 5 waves down to signify the beginning of a down trend, which in this case we also have:
Comment:
Scenario 1: Done with wave v
Scenario 2: Not done with wave v
Scenario 2: Not done with wave v
Comment:
Correction
Scenario 1: Done with wave 1* of v
Scenario 2: Not done with wave 1* of v
Scenario 1: Done with wave 1* of v
Scenario 2: Not done with wave 1* of v
Comment:
Channel within a channel
If we are in fact done with the first wave of v, then this 5 wave impulse wave is the first of 5 of a larger ABC correction that will take us all the way down to .786 retracement at 7200 or .9 retracement of 6800
If we are not done with the first wave of v, and our target to 11600 is valid, then this 5 wave impulse is the A leg of an ABC correction wave 2 that will take us up to 9700 then down to 9100.
Either way, we should have a second chance to exit if we haven’t done so already at roughly 9700.
Stay safe everyone. Cheers,
Kinashi San
P.S.:
We have an hourly RSI divergence inside of a 4hr RSI divergence. It’s no wonder we corrected so sharply. Right now we’re being supported by the 400 hr MA and likely we’ll see some sideway actions as we bounce between the 400 hr and 200 day MA. With 10K being such a psychological barrier I feel that if we get a clear break, we’ll be home free.
*For educational purposes only. Not financial advice nor recommendation to buy, sell or hold*