This will be quick and this is important to understand, and if your trading you should have a chart like this on your screen and not just the path you HOPING for. I'm not going to hash out who is right and who is wrong as some think you are either right or wrong when trading. I also want to be clear, if your investing you can be long here!!!! I'm not telling you nor have I ever told anyone to short their portfolio in this market, I have specifically said NOT TO. I have stated I'm trading around a core position. Not shorting my long term stuff.
LONG TERM - We are in a bull market until proven otherwise. this is over several years and not months, weeks or days. However EW is happening in all cycles long term, mid term, and short term. They call this fractals. Within every bull market there are mini bull bear cycles. So you must understand what time frame you are concerned with, long term for investing, short term for trading. I have us in Wave IV shown below.
As you have noticed we now have a battle of the bulls and the bears. Camps are separating, people are slinging mud. If someone tells you everyone else is wrong and they have the clear path to prosperity stay away! Yes used car and snake oil salesman are abound. You must in the end rely on your own analysis, I do, notice I have not switched camps. Yet!
Why am I still bearish? Well point blank, it's following the path we had from the start. Nothing has changed, no major test areas have been broken, the current trend line may have broken, but that happens all the time and often fails. I'm looking for major support resistance levels. There are mine, on the chart to see. This is why for a week I have specifically stated $4200, $4400 and $4600 are levels that are still in play for a pullback. Note the fibb extension from the last dip is $4550 right in line with our thesis. Nothing on the RSI has shown we are incorrect, and I am not going to change MY thinking because of one day of movement that we knew was going to likely happen.
However, as others have pointed out, and I pointed out last week. This is not the only valid path. To me it's the most probable of them, but not the only. Why? Because in the long term cycle we have not made a full correction to the 0.618 level which has happened in all the midterm cycles. It's a pattern. Does it have to happen. Absolutely not. I have mentioned that as well .382 is enough but I'm going on history and what my signals are telling me. We can go to $6000 from here, I personally don't see it likely but that's just one opinion. IT'S YOUR MONEY YOU MUST DO YOU OWN HOMEWORK!
But as I said ,and to clarify the alt possible paths, I have provided this chart above as my map so to speak. You should already have this chart up if too your trading. The blue arrows are the paths that validate my path. Where the red deviates from them is what I am looking for to NOT happen. If it does I will quickly modify my trades and positions. Now these are overall paths and do NOT expect them to follow it to a tee. They seldom do. But these are the trends your constantly monitoring along with your other indicators to give YOU a feel for where the market is. I'm always monitoring at these critical levels to see if something has changed. We hit the trend line, but nothing changed. We did not hit the long term support resistance line yet. That has to happen and how the market reacts there will give us better direction. Until then I'm huddling unfavorably with the Bears.
So good for short and sweet.
LONG TERM - We are in a bull market until proven otherwise. this is over several years and not months, weeks or days. However EW is happening in all cycles long term, mid term, and short term. They call this fractals. Within every bull market there are mini bull bear cycles. So you must understand what time frame you are concerned with, long term for investing, short term for trading. I have us in Wave IV shown below.
As you have noticed we now have a battle of the bulls and the bears. Camps are separating, people are slinging mud. If someone tells you everyone else is wrong and they have the clear path to prosperity stay away! Yes used car and snake oil salesman are abound. You must in the end rely on your own analysis, I do, notice I have not switched camps. Yet!
Why am I still bearish? Well point blank, it's following the path we had from the start. Nothing has changed, no major test areas have been broken, the current trend line may have broken, but that happens all the time and often fails. I'm looking for major support resistance levels. There are mine, on the chart to see. This is why for a week I have specifically stated $4200, $4400 and $4600 are levels that are still in play for a pullback. Note the fibb extension from the last dip is $4550 right in line with our thesis. Nothing on the RSI has shown we are incorrect, and I am not going to change MY thinking because of one day of movement that we knew was going to likely happen.
However, as others have pointed out, and I pointed out last week. This is not the only valid path. To me it's the most probable of them, but not the only. Why? Because in the long term cycle we have not made a full correction to the 0.618 level which has happened in all the midterm cycles. It's a pattern. Does it have to happen. Absolutely not. I have mentioned that as well .382 is enough but I'm going on history and what my signals are telling me. We can go to $6000 from here, I personally don't see it likely but that's just one opinion. IT'S YOUR MONEY YOU MUST DO YOU OWN HOMEWORK!
But as I said ,and to clarify the alt possible paths, I have provided this chart above as my map so to speak. You should already have this chart up if too your trading. The blue arrows are the paths that validate my path. Where the red deviates from them is what I am looking for to NOT happen. If it does I will quickly modify my trades and positions. Now these are overall paths and do NOT expect them to follow it to a tee. They seldom do. But these are the trends your constantly monitoring along with your other indicators to give YOU a feel for where the market is. I'm always monitoring at these critical levels to see if something has changed. We hit the trend line, but nothing changed. We did not hit the long term support resistance line yet. That has to happen and how the market reacts there will give us better direction. Until then I'm huddling unfavorably with the Bears.
So good for short and sweet.
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Again I want to clarify, I have always been monitoring alternate patterns, they are all valid, why I am still at $2200 is that I believe based on historical pasts, a full correction will be at 0.618 or thereabouts. I know it seems crazy, I know it's nuts, you believe what you want to believe, there is someone out there posting what you want to hear for sure, but to deny the possibility that $2200 can happen is amateur trading on hope and not facts. I know, who would sell at $2200 was a question? Well look at who bought at $900 and sold at $180. Yeah there are those people!
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Great point was brought up. Note how all the news followers are ignoring the news out of China. Why? SENTIMENT DRIVES MARKETS NOT NEWS. Those same calling for the end, are now calling for a rally! HMMMMMMMM
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When Bulls become Steer. Not a good sign for the Bulls going into the barn. You might come out a Steer.
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I want to be clear, i'm neither buying or selling at this juncture. I have put in the consolidation channel and am monitoring the market. It can still go either way. Just not looking as bullish as some want to think. But sentiment changes on a dime, and we must always keep that in mind!
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The ole inverted inverted bowl. symbolizes someone is setting the table for the bears to feast!
The ole inverted inverted bowl. symbolizes someone is setting the table for the bears to feast!
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For you pattern followers H&S formation, or the quickening!
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Consolidating even more, This is not a bull or bear move but makes for a nice trade the longer it consolidates.
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Closed the total short @ $4038. Market has moved with strength and appears to be headed toward are target of $4200.
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On sept 22nd shortly after we initially entered our first short position when BTC was trading at $3450-$3500 that I was taking some off the table to look for a better setup. I mentioned you should too if you were shorting. This type of money management took what would have been a loss, and made it about break even.
From the Gambler vs Trader post Sept 22nd.
Just so I don't hear, ohhhh you were wrong!! $3400 is not a place to short but take some off the table. You made money why not. It can continue down as we believe it will, but it can also turn around and head up. I'm looking at alt coins like DASH ZEC OMG and NEO and they are trending up!
From the Gambler vs Trader post Sept 22nd.
Just so I don't hear, ohhhh you were wrong!! $3400 is not a place to short but take some off the table. You made money why not. It can continue down as we believe it will, but it can also turn around and head up. I'm looking at alt coins like DASH ZEC OMG and NEO and they are trending up!
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FYI - The market as a whole is trending up BUT DASH is not following. Not that you should buy this is your decision but this one has kind of led the market direction. It trended up before the others. It's trending down. I'm going to look further into this correlation, but I added to my DASH count today!
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This is the bull thesis. Note the buying into the 5th wave which seems to be typical for cryptos. No i'm not saying I am camping with the bulls, but keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Know what they are thinking, it provides an edge!
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FYI I have a few thing to do but I've noticed a pattern in the market that I will be posting on shortly. Very interesting pattern that has come to my attention and I am looking at it closely to see if there is some money to be made. I want to thank everyone for the comments that have been ever so kind, I'm more than grateful for them.
Remember you have to be a disciplined trader to make money. being right 9 out of 10 times does not mean your a successful trader it means your a good analyst. Successful traders only need to be right 4 out of 10 times to make money! Know the difference!!
Remember you have to be a disciplined trader to make money. being right 9 out of 10 times does not mean your a successful trader it means your a good analyst. Successful traders only need to be right 4 out of 10 times to make money! Know the difference!!
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Ok for the record I shorted initially 1/2 BTC at $3858. I covered 1/2 that at $3542. I then shorted again the 1/4 coin i covered at $3890. I covered this morning at $4037. Total Loss was $2.50 On a $1900 trade because I managed my money right I lost a whopping $2.50 rounded up.
I've been asked why I exited. Well I exited because the trade went against me and I got off the table before a small lost became a huge one. That does not change my mind about the market. It changed my thinking on the short term trend which is why I exited.
My original intent was to short 1.5 BTC but like I said I short in 1/3 positions, this way if the trade goes against me I can get out, especially knowing $4200 was imminent. This is the reason you must manage your money and when a trade goes against you get the heck out.
I've been asked why I exited. Well I exited because the trade went against me and I got off the table before a small lost became a huge one. That does not change my mind about the market. It changed my thinking on the short term trend which is why I exited.
My original intent was to short 1.5 BTC but like I said I short in 1/3 positions, this way if the trade goes against me I can get out, especially knowing $4200 was imminent. This is the reason you must manage your money and when a trade goes against you get the heck out.
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Sometimes as much as you like pocket aces you have to throw them away!!!
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I also want to clarify. I have a Core position of BTC that I do not touch. No trading nothing. I have a BTC position in my trading account purposely for trading. Small percentage of my overall allocation for cryptos. I have stated in about every article I have written i DO NOT TOUCH MY CORE I trade around it. The BTC in my trading account is what I shorted. NOT MY CORE POSITION. I won't get into borrowing, but you get the point. DO NOT CONFUSE YOUR INVESTMENT ACCOUNT WITH YOUR TRADING ACCOUNT!!
I bought my BTC back and immediately added to DASH for which I will explain later. THIS DOES NOT MEAN EVERYONE RUN OUT AND BUY DASH. I have a strategy and that will not change in 6 hours.
Thanks again for the wonderful comments, God Bless you all!
I bought my BTC back and immediately added to DASH for which I will explain later. THIS DOES NOT MEAN EVERYONE RUN OUT AND BUY DASH. I have a strategy and that will not change in 6 hours.
Thanks again for the wonderful comments, God Bless you all!
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Ok off to the beach, I'm shutting it down. Time to have a couple beers, grouper sandwich and enjoy the view. Life is to short to ignore the little things! I will post the update later.
Again God Bless!
Again God Bless!
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If you would like to read a little how sentiment is truly the driving factor behind market movement and how it is relatively predictable I recommend reading ETH a path less chosen. ETH hit and failed to break the critical level the same day and almost the same time BTC hit $4200 and failed. Coinicidence? Crystal ball theory? or just good ole TA using sentiment indicators, trend lines EW and Fibb. If you thought we were going up up up. You may want to look again and see if you planned for the alternate path. the one less chosen.
