So we seem to have broken through the pivot point, This Harmonic pattern played out rather nicely from my last update where I was trying to figure out where we may move.
At this point, we are likely not going to get more movements up. If we do, I don't believe it will be earth-shattering in size. At most I look for it to get between 0.618 and 0.786 fib but there is heavy resistance above, and keep in mind that we are still pretty bearish. Buying action will be quick like it was today, and then the slow drain down, followed by a break down below trend lines.
I still think we have one more solid move down, I believe this move simply changed placement of the B point on harmonic. I felt that the last local high was just not up there enough to fit with many harmonic patterns. This B point seems to fit much better.
So as we can see, we have a pretty defined and apparent pivot area developing right around the 0.5 and 0.382 fib with resistance above it and supports below.
We are also crowded by the yearly pivot zone which is the reason we only dropped down this far from 10k because it signifies VERY heavy support for prices historically. BUT, as you can see price has breached below it, and is starting to eat its way down to a monthly pivot zone.
Ultimately I think we do hit around that pivot because buyers are getting exhausted already. We didn't break way too high out of our local pivot zone and LONGS outweigh SHORTS by a factor of almost 3 to 1.
When we have this much pressure weighing down prices - I just can't be overly bullish here. Just can't. I do believe short term we are going back down. If you want to play the short game, you can probably short now, or just wait till we get under the 0.382 fib which has been almost exclusively a bearish sign... But you can also do it right around the 0.5 fib I believe (if you want to play it safe).
SL is the last high right at around 0.618.
TP should be around 7.8k - 7.7k to be safe... Even though I think we likely drop lower.
Go long around the green highlighted box... I do think that run we will hit the red resistance zone in the chart and possibly break through and test the upper 8k region to around 9k. I will update things at that point for a recommendation of where your TP should be on that long play when price develops a bit more...
Happy trading
At this point, we are likely not going to get more movements up. If we do, I don't believe it will be earth-shattering in size. At most I look for it to get between 0.618 and 0.786 fib but there is heavy resistance above, and keep in mind that we are still pretty bearish. Buying action will be quick like it was today, and then the slow drain down, followed by a break down below trend lines.
I still think we have one more solid move down, I believe this move simply changed placement of the B point on harmonic. I felt that the last local high was just not up there enough to fit with many harmonic patterns. This B point seems to fit much better.
So as we can see, we have a pretty defined and apparent pivot area developing right around the 0.5 and 0.382 fib with resistance above it and supports below.
We are also crowded by the yearly pivot zone which is the reason we only dropped down this far from 10k because it signifies VERY heavy support for prices historically. BUT, as you can see price has breached below it, and is starting to eat its way down to a monthly pivot zone.
Ultimately I think we do hit around that pivot because buyers are getting exhausted already. We didn't break way too high out of our local pivot zone and LONGS outweigh SHORTS by a factor of almost 3 to 1.
When we have this much pressure weighing down prices - I just can't be overly bullish here. Just can't. I do believe short term we are going back down. If you want to play the short game, you can probably short now, or just wait till we get under the 0.382 fib which has been almost exclusively a bearish sign... But you can also do it right around the 0.5 fib I believe (if you want to play it safe).
SL is the last high right at around 0.618.
TP should be around 7.8k - 7.7k to be safe... Even though I think we likely drop lower.
Go long around the green highlighted box... I do think that run we will hit the red resistance zone in the chart and possibly break through and test the upper 8k region to around 9k. I will update things at that point for a recommendation of where your TP should be on that long play when price develops a bit more...
Happy trading
Comment:
BARE IN MIND THE 0.5 fib flat EW correction on the 5-drive.
We just got done with 12345 impulse up and are in the middle of ABC. Usually a 0.5 fib correction there before uptrend continues to 8600
We just got done with 12345 impulse up and are in the middle of ABC. Usually a 0.5 fib correction there before uptrend continues to 8600
Make no mistake, once reached we likely head right back down as another Gartley takes shape. Point D becomes pivot for point B in a larger Gartley and we likely make a new low before the final push to 9k region.
Will update again when I get in front of a pc this evening.