OH! Bitcoin Trading Ranges can be very Mean, especially if you are new to trading because in so many ways it can lead to you loosing your mind if you are ever caught in such trading conditions.
You feels like you always miss the pump and when you finally see a pullback, and jump straight in (FOMO) that is when the trading ranges always begin🤯
price starts acting funny, going up and down the same price range for days, 😰You tried to hold on but each time price moves, your heart moves with it.
Finally you decide to give up, take the loss, only for price to sprint back above your entry. Sounds familiar?
To understand trading ranges, I will start by Explaining what a trading range is.
What is a Trading range?
A trading range simply represents the period of time in a market when buy power is equal to sell power thereby forcing price to be compressed in a particular area on the chart this is also known a s consolidation or sideways movement.
but what could be the cause of this you may ask, it is simply because of confusion in the minds of traders if they should be buying or selling at that price area, this leads to a form of dragging between buyers and sellers of who will take charge of the next direction of price. The price is then contain between two walls( ), The first is located above the price by connecting the top of the called "resistance" this act as a roof or Barrier stopping price from moving further, The second trendline is located below the lows of the connecting the low of the candles called a "Support" acting as a floor area where price bounce of after hitting the roof.Here play an important role for a break off the trading range to occur.
in other words this is like a battle front where the buyers and seller clash, you can call it area of pure confusion,
For a trader to make profit he/she has to first determine who will be in charge of the next price move direction , in other to successfully trade to make profit, this only means that if buyers win, everyone will jump in a buy trade position leading to more upside but if sellers win instead, then everyone will focus on selling.
This simply means that only one of the two can succeed in any trading range, this is the major cause of uncertainty in the market during a consolidation Trading ranges which mostly occur after a stretched trend move in price, it can last for short time and long term sometime close to a year or more depending on the move that precedes it.
When a trading range occur, one of this is playing out in the back scene
* Accumulation(means buyers are buying more than sellers and even though price has not move it shows clear buy pressure and and price will end up breaking
Here is a view on 1hr chart of a short time sideways move
Here is an example of a long time trading range
* Distribution(here sellers has the upper pressure which only means the supply(sell) power is greater and price is likely going to break to the down side)
The bitter truth is that Over 75% of the time market will be in a range and only less than 25% you will see a clear trend, This is the tiring part that always lead to loss simply because most traders lack the patients.
How do you trade a trading range?
Many investors look at the duration of a trading range. Like I mentioned, large trending moves often follow extended range bound periods. What this simply means is that as a result of the compression of price in one area for so long, the price breakout , out of that area(range) will be explosive and is most likely to follow the direction of the preceding trading range.
Most Day traders frequently use this trading strategy by observing the trading of the first half-hour of the trading session as a reference point for their intraday strategies.
Here are my three ways of trading :
*1st strategy is to buy the lower trendline area that serve as support and sell the upper trendline that serve as resistance ,here you are expected to exit on the hit of the resistance until a clear breakout is seen,
( the disadvantage of this first option is that when price gets to the resistance you are most likely goin to fail to take profit as chances are high you will expect a breakout.)
*The Second strategy is by absolute patience and this requires you standing aside watching carefully to observe and wait for breakout, you buy the breakout( The downside of this strategy is that most times without proper observation or experience, most traders likely end up buying a fake or a tease line breakout only for price to get pullback into the range by the next open candle, because price is always being pulled to the center of every range by some sort of magnet kind of, I call it a vacuum which only increase the confusion in ranges). Here most play a very importance role in the confirmation of price move to avoid flash breakout signal.
*The third is probably the most secured Strategy with good higher probability of success up to over 65%,
here a traders maximum patience is fully required, by waiting for a breakout retest to trade in the first breakout direction.
What will happen here is that you allow price to clearly break the barrier then wait for it to come back to that same barrier but then this time form a higher low on the the broken barrier which will now prevent price from falling through . (when there is strong in the market price will skip a retest but 85% of the time, price will retest a breakout area)
In the current case of bitcoin , Price is currently in the middle of the range which is acting as our vacuum,
This is the vacuum on 1hr chart
This vacuum will lead to price seeking support of the lower trendline support at 33k to 32500 support which will be Institutions and market makers hunting stop loss
this is how this will most likely happen
The support at 32k is likely going to be missed as a result of market makers and institutions buying that support.
From this support we could see a clear upside breakout that will crown this bull run all the way to $50K - 54k price range area.
Thanks for Reading.
As discussed earlier, I said we will see some stop loss hunt taking place on bitcoin at the middle of the bitcoin trading range, i also said that this will happen
by the breaking of the white bullish trendline that was acting as a lower support yesterday, allowing bulls making higher lows inside the current triangle trading range forming on BTC.
here is a chart view of this current battle going on between the bulls and the bears(buyers and sellers)
as we see price return to the middle vacuum after crossing this same particular price range 7 times in the past, this is why I call it a vacuum, here it is easy to feel the strong pain, worry and anxiety growing in the market(minds of traders) as it prints on the charts(every action has a reaction).
Ones price crosses above the price range, here you see the fear of missing out(Fomo) starts to rise as price races to the resistance trendline above it, and when price crosses below it, instantly you will see the rise of fear of loss starts to creep in as price races its way to the lower support trendline.