Bitcoin (BTC) - 6h The critical point was held. What's next?

The tense situation in the BTC market is beginning to gradually change, giving buyers a chance for a new wave of growth. The unsuccessful attempt of sellers on June 22 to continue the fall in the price of BTCUSDT ended only with the renewal of the previous minimum. Having formed a false breakout on the daily timeframe, the buyers did not stop and closed the weekly candlestick with the hairpin down.


Looking at the trading volumes of the previous week, we can conclude that the range of $28800-30500 is very important for buyers. The unsuccessful attempt of sellers to break through this range showed the interest of big money for at least one more medium-term growth wave. Considering this fact, our main scenario for the formation of a local growth wave to the range of $48000-50000 remains the main one.

If we pay attention to a slightly smaller timeframe (three-day), we see that the wave of the fall, which the sellers began on May 10, has not yet been stopped:

The BTCUSD price has moved to the consolidation channel, where it is trading at high volumes. If we compare the consolidation from March to May 2021 with the current one, it is clear that a new wave of decline began due to the disinterest of buyers to buy at historical highs. However, in the current consolidation, we see that buyers are still interested and are successfully gaining positions (trading volumes are 1.5 times higher now than in consolidation on highs)


If we analyze the chart of the dominance of USDT in the cryptocurrency market, then from May 10 (just when the price of BTC fell), the dominance of USDT began to grow. This is a natural fact that explains that investors fix their positions and enter stablecoins. However, at the moment, the indicator of USDT dominance is at a critical point and indicates a high probability of the completion of the current wave of decline:

As you can see in the chart, USDT dominance has been moving clearly within the black channel since March 2020.

If we analyze the situation locally, Buyers have kept the lower consolidation line and are now trying to gain a foothold above the middle line:

On the 6 hour timeframe, we see that a triangle with a flat top is formed, which is more likely to be broken upwards. However, one more local wave of decline is missing, which will confirm the weakness and complete exhaustion of sellers. This wave of decline should not go below $ 31500-31700. Therefore, this week we expect a test of the upper border of the $40,500 consolidation. The breakout and consolidation of the bitcoin price above this mark will confirm our main scenario of the continuation of the price growth to $48000-50000

An alternative scenario in the BTC market will take effect after the price fixes below $28800. In this case, the next stop of the price will be at $25,000.
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We create both short-term ideas (for a local understanding of the market situation) and medium-term forecasts of price movements.
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