Bitcoin Daily Update (day 221)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 14 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “If they can breakthrough $6,600 and support it then we should retest $7,000. If that happens I will still be viewing it as a bull trap.” / $6,400 - $6,700 = no trade zone
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,675 | S: $6,640
BTCUSDSHORTS: Creating new local high
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 & 26 = +1% and making bullish crossover
50 & 128 MA’s: 50: +0.45% | 128: -1.71% (should be strong resistance at $6,765)
Volume: Prior two candles had a big dip in volume, now it is starting to build again
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,600 | 0.5 = $6,759 | 0.382 = $6,918
Candlestick analysis: Took out yesterdays hanging man, but today's candle is forming a bearish wick after breaking out of the first down trend/triangle. This is what I said to watch out for yesterday to identify a potential fake breakout.
Ichimoku Cloud: Current candle is re entering 12h cloud. 4h cloud is fully bullish.
TD’ Sequential: W: G2 > G1 | D: G4 | 12h: G2 > G1 | 4h: G7
Visible Range: Gap in volume between $6,800 and $7,250 represents prime opportunity for a bull trap/fake breakout.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +0.39% | 24h: +0.74% | 1w: +0.81% | 2w: +3.19% | 1m: +4.03%
Bollinger Bands: Still hasn’t tested top daily band. I would expect a fake breakout to violate the top band and then quickly return to the MA.
Trendline: Has violated trend/triangle that connects 7/24 - 9/4.
Daily Trend: Bullish
Fractals: Up at $6,685 was briefly violated. Down at $6,419 and looks like we will form a new one at $6,519
On Balance Volume: Looks like it is going to retest the descending triangle that it recently broke down
ADX: ADX finally looks like it is turning up after finding support at
Chaikin Money Flow:
RSI (30 setting): Broke out of it’s symmetrical triangle, supported throwback and created a new local high 4.55 (low since March 2016)
Stoch: Surprised to see that it made a bearish re cross on the weekly, while starting to diverge in a bullish manner on daily.

Summary: Today's candle is breaking out of the symmetrical triangle that is inside the larger descending triangle, however the move is weaker than I expected. I expected a large spike in buy volume to follow the trendline violation combined with an extended range candle to $7,000+.

The 1h chart looks toppy' af’ with a very bearish wick from 12 hours ago currently being re explored. Nevertheless support continues to move up. This has been a common theme over the past couple weeks and is a main reason why I had a losing streak and was forced to label $6,400 - $6,700 a no trade zone.

I will continue to sit on my waits and wait for further development. The 12h and weekly TD' Sequentials are providing a long entry, but I am passing on both. I remain bearish and am looking for bearish entries. As I have stated many times I will not turn bullish until we create a higher high on the weekly chart (> $7,500), get a golden cross on the 50 / 128 day MA's and breakthrough the daily Ichimoku Cloud.