A small analysis of the situation. Be very attentive BTC/USDT
Hello dear friends
My yesterday's trading recommendation brought me and those who trade with me a small minus in the deposit (personally my 1.2%)
(It's okay, but it shouldn't have happened.)
Today, analyzing the market differently, I went short again from 36130 - and wrote about it in the comments under the previous trading idea. (so far this trading idea is working out, and already, it has returned our small loss a little)
I will immediately describe why I opened a short position, and not a long one, and then I will move on to analyze the situation
I opened a short position because:
We had a return in price to the level I wrote about 36150 (even a little higher by 500 points) - this is a strong level from which I opened a short position, because,
First: the narrowing of the ascending triangle after the fall, as well as growth, without correction by 1-2H TF, breaks the price down at 91%. (white lines)
Secondly:
The price dropped to the lower border - the ascending channel. (blue channel) - which indicated the price breaking down.
3rd reason: As well as the order book - Large sell orders (where there is such an accumulation of orders, the price will be repelled by such losses)
4th reason - a false breakout of the level above which there is strong resistance,
(and which, this level served as a support zone)
The 5th reason is a bearish engulfing candlestick at 1h TF.
and also - "inverted head and shoulders", in the large pattern "inverted head and shoulders" - if it is confirmed.
Now about the analysis of the situation.
For the given time, if you sort it all out on the shelves.
and examine the market situation, then we will analyze each timeframe, starting from 1 hour.
Let's start with the fact that we again have an expanding triangle - going beyond the boundaries of which will indicate the direction of the price, at least by 2000-2500 points.
Second:
we have a zone of strong support - the price values of which - 32450 - 33280 - from pushing up from this level will give the price direction for the continuation of the trend (formation of an inverted head and shoulders)
Also - the market maker levels have narrowed - this indicates that an impulse in price will soon occur - from 1 to 3 days
By the way, while I am writing this, a hammer + volume candle has formed, but I ask you to be extremely careful and enter a long position only when the price consolidates above the level of 35400. (Only in this case, you can take a long to update 36600 -38600 - 41000 - 42950.)
If we disassemble, older TFs, they draw a double bottom, a falling wedge (flag on a bullish trend)
If we disassemble, the older TFs, they draw a double bottom, a falling wedge (flag on a bullish trend) Indicators - Bollinger, EMA grid, MACD reach their maximum values for a reversal (at 1-3 day TF)
But on weekly and monthly TF
we have a Large absorption of the candle, no touches on the MACD lines
By KDJ - ready to make a second downward impulse,
As well as RSI - started to go down.
But we trade here - and now.
Look - going beyond the boundaries of the channel, 34450-35350 - will mean that the head and shoulders are forming, the target of which will be the mark - 42900
If the price is returned from this level by 2-4 hours TF, and they trade in a range, with tightening to such boundaries as:
31600-30500 - get ready for the fact that the price on the impulse will break through to such marks as 27000 - 25000 - 22000.
And again, while I am writing a trading idea, bearish engulfs on 1h TF, the price will return and lower to the lower border - 31600.
For now, I will stick to my plan to reduce the price, as I want to see such a picture - as:
The downward impulse by 11 thousand dollars, the price correction to 36000 (this is half of the fall) and the continuation of the impulse - 11 thousand down.
But if this does not happen, and the price returns to 40,000, we will have a very very very strong growth, which everyone is dreaming of, because it began with such a range of 16000-17000 and it will be an impulse to 41000 - a correction for 30000 - and continuation of the growth impulse up to 60-80 thousand per bitcoin.
We'll see.
All good and profitable trades.
My yesterday's trading recommendation brought me and those who trade with me a small minus in the deposit (personally my 1.2%)
(It's okay, but it shouldn't have happened.)
Today, analyzing the market differently, I went short again from 36130 - and wrote about it in the comments under the previous trading idea. (so far this trading idea is working out, and already, it has returned our small loss a little)
I will immediately describe why I opened a short position, and not a long one, and then I will move on to analyze the situation
I opened a short position because:
We had a return in price to the level I wrote about 36150 (even a little higher by 500 points) - this is a strong level from which I opened a short position, because,
First: the narrowing of the ascending triangle after the fall, as well as growth, without correction by 1-2H TF, breaks the price down at 91%. (white lines)
Secondly:
The price dropped to the lower border - the ascending channel. (blue channel) - which indicated the price breaking down.
3rd reason: As well as the order book - Large sell orders (where there is such an accumulation of orders, the price will be repelled by such losses)
4th reason - a false breakout of the level above which there is strong resistance,
(and which, this level served as a support zone)
The 5th reason is a bearish engulfing candlestick at 1h TF.
and also - "inverted head and shoulders", in the large pattern "inverted head and shoulders" - if it is confirmed.
Now about the analysis of the situation.
For the given time, if you sort it all out on the shelves.
and examine the market situation, then we will analyze each timeframe, starting from 1 hour.
Let's start with the fact that we again have an expanding triangle - going beyond the boundaries of which will indicate the direction of the price, at least by 2000-2500 points.
Second:
we have a zone of strong support - the price values of which - 32450 - 33280 - from pushing up from this level will give the price direction for the continuation of the trend (formation of an inverted head and shoulders)
Also - the market maker levels have narrowed - this indicates that an impulse in price will soon occur - from 1 to 3 days
By the way, while I am writing this, a hammer + volume candle has formed, but I ask you to be extremely careful and enter a long position only when the price consolidates above the level of 35400. (Only in this case, you can take a long to update 36600 -38600 - 41000 - 42950.)
If we disassemble, older TFs, they draw a double bottom, a falling wedge (flag on a bullish trend)
If we disassemble, the older TFs, they draw a double bottom, a falling wedge (flag on a bullish trend) Indicators - Bollinger, EMA grid, MACD reach their maximum values for a reversal (at 1-3 day TF)
But on weekly and monthly TF
we have a Large absorption of the candle, no touches on the MACD lines
By KDJ - ready to make a second downward impulse,
As well as RSI - started to go down.
But we trade here - and now.
Look - going beyond the boundaries of the channel, 34450-35350 - will mean that the head and shoulders are forming, the target of which will be the mark - 42900
If the price is returned from this level by 2-4 hours TF, and they trade in a range, with tightening to such boundaries as:
31600-30500 - get ready for the fact that the price on the impulse will break through to such marks as 27000 - 25000 - 22000.
And again, while I am writing a trading idea, bearish engulfs on 1h TF, the price will return and lower to the lower border - 31600.
For now, I will stick to my plan to reduce the price, as I want to see such a picture - as:
The downward impulse by 11 thousand dollars, the price correction to 36000 (this is half of the fall) and the continuation of the impulse - 11 thousand down.
But if this does not happen, and the price returns to 40,000, we will have a very very very strong growth, which everyone is dreaming of, because it began with such a range of 16000-17000 and it will be an impulse to 41000 - a correction for 30000 - and continuation of the growth impulse up to 60-80 thousand per bitcoin.
We'll see.
All good and profitable trades.
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