April 2022, bitcoin dropped from 49k to 15kand marked the bottom and selling climax
Since the bottom bitcoin made an countertrend move to the 0.618 Fib Retracement of this drop
When reaching this level, bitcoin went sideways for some time indicating distribution-behaviour and resistance
Now we have a clear support and resistance or range we can trade off
32k and 0.618 Fib retracement acting as the resistance of the range
And 18k marking the support of the range with the bottom at 15k as a deviation under the range
Because months of distribution is in the past, price-action is forming multiple bearish patterns
One of these patterns you can see on the chart, a diamond bearish pattern
(See my other idea for bearflag-continuation pattern target 22k)
Target of this pattern is to the 0.618 Fib retracement from 15k to 32k at 20k
This in confluence with the point of control from the 49k dorp untill now
This is a decent target to get back in the market but i dont exclude we could have a wick-event to the 0.786 Fib retracement and Value are low at 18k
Don't expect it to go in a straight line down
25k was a big support last months so i expect first a move to 22k to then backtest the 25k as resistance before reaching the target of the diamond pattern
Duration can be untill end of the year, not knowing if the possible wick to 18k wil happen before or after the yearly close
After newyear i expect an halving relief rally and alt-season when bitcoin tries to get back to the high of the range
If the the current move is an ABC-correction to the upside i expect it to reach the 1.0 Fib extension at 38k an have an deviation at resistance of the range to come back in the range for an last drop before the impulsive move, probably not back the low of the range but midpoint at 20-22k
Since the bottom bitcoin made an countertrend move to the 0.618 Fib Retracement of this drop
When reaching this level, bitcoin went sideways for some time indicating distribution-behaviour and resistance
Now we have a clear support and resistance or range we can trade off
32k and 0.618 Fib retracement acting as the resistance of the range
And 18k marking the support of the range with the bottom at 15k as a deviation under the range
Because months of distribution is in the past, price-action is forming multiple bearish patterns
One of these patterns you can see on the chart, a diamond bearish pattern
(See my other idea for bearflag-continuation pattern target 22k)
Target of this pattern is to the 0.618 Fib retracement from 15k to 32k at 20k
This in confluence with the point of control from the 49k dorp untill now
This is a decent target to get back in the market but i dont exclude we could have a wick-event to the 0.786 Fib retracement and Value are low at 18k
Don't expect it to go in a straight line down
25k was a big support last months so i expect first a move to 22k to then backtest the 25k as resistance before reaching the target of the diamond pattern
Duration can be untill end of the year, not knowing if the possible wick to 18k wil happen before or after the yearly close
After newyear i expect an halving relief rally and alt-season when bitcoin tries to get back to the high of the range
If the the current move is an ABC-correction to the upside i expect it to reach the 1.0 Fib extension at 38k an have an deviation at resistance of the range to come back in the range for an last drop before the impulsive move, probably not back the low of the range but midpoint at 20-22k
Comment:
In time you will see heads and shoulders everywhere
